Trump vs. Harris - Please put all new polls here.

On last “huh?” Poll.

 

Spent the weekend in ATL. The city is literally one big Harris billboard.

 

Just like the block JD Vance lives on near me.

 

Oh and look who’s back?



so what will be interesting tomorrow is that there have been four or five of these all showing Kamala up 4 or so. Is this the number that the major pollsters are suppressing out of fear, or dem leaning pollsters hopping in late to skew the averages? It could be we will never know. It it will likely impact Silver’s final number at midnight, not that it matters much. What’s gonna happen is gonna happen.
But 538 just flipped back to her. 50-49.

 

As already discussed, if the statewide turnout is 55% right now, 50% in Fulton is bad if you’re a Harris fanboy. Wow, look at the racial breakdown of the vote in Fulton thus far. That tells you all you need to know. Fulton has a slightly higher Black population than White.

 

Of course, Silver’s final model run…

“
Last and final update: 12:30 a.m., Tuesday, November 5. Happy Election Day! At exactly midnight on Tuesday, we ran our simulation model for the final time in this election cycle. Out of 80,000 simulations, Kamala Harris won in 40,012 (50.015%) cases. She did not win in 39,988 simulations (49.985%). Of those, 39,718 were outright wins for Donald Trump and the remainder (270 simulations) were exact 269-269 Electoral College ties: these ties are likely to eventually result in Trump wins in the U.S. House of Representatives.

I’m not quite sure what to say about this, but we’ll have a newsletter out for you later tonight/this morning and link to it here once it’s ready.”

FINAL Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast