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Trump vs. Harris - Please put all new polls here.

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by rivergator, Jul 24, 2024.

  1. VAg8r1

    VAg8r1 GC Hall of Fame

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    Key Wisconsin county saw young voter spike after Harris rally
    Keeping in mind that the new voters wouldn't not have been captured by polls which focus on likely voters or registered voters (Wisconsin has same day registration). Although the article is about Dane County (Madison) the same phenomenon is also occurring in Milwaukee another county strongly predisposed to vote Democrat.
     
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  2. gatorchamps960608

    gatorchamps960608 GC Hall of Fame

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    Semi-disgraced journalist Mark Halperin nailed this election on the head today on Twitter.

    He basically said if the electorate ends up being heavily female she wins, as a lot of the EV has been.

    If men dominate eday voting, she loses.
     
  3. HeyItsMe

    HeyItsMe GC Hall of Fame

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    I’d venture to guess it’s going to be heavily female dominated. Only one sex is actively having rights stripped away from them so they have way more to lose.
     
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  4. okeechobee

    okeechobee GC Hall of Fame

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    You have to wonder how meaningful polling is at this stage, as a majority of ballots have already been cast. Are they merely sampling folks who have not yet voted? Seems like that would become harder and harder to do. We have to remember 70% or so of the votes are already in.
     
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  5. mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    It seems to be a strategy from the Republicans this year. I am thinking that it has to do with two factors: 1. A permission structure for reluctant Trump voters to vote for him (everybody can't be awful, basically); 2. Setting the ground up, in case he loses, for more claims of fraud.
     
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  6. channingcrowderhungry

    channingcrowderhungry Premium Member

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    Bottom of a pint glass
    3) keep the grift going as long as possible.
     
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  7. VAg8r1

    VAg8r1 GC Hall of Fame

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    Adding the caveat that the poll is an outlier, according to Anne Selzer one of the most respected pollsters in the country the reason for the surprising result in Iowa is the shift of women (implicitly white women) in rural areas from Trump to Harris.
    Pollster explains why Iowa poll suggests Kamala Harris is leading
    Ann Selzer predicts a shock win for Kamala Harris in Iowa – here’s why it’s a big deal

    Interesting story regarding Selzer's polling when she was also an outlier 16 years ago.
    The approach took her to national acclaim when she accurately predicted that a first-senator by the name of Barack Obama would beat frontrunner Hillary Clinton, the former first lady, in the Iowa caucuses in 2008. Her forecast sparked reactions ranging from skepticism to outright mockery when it was published. A member of the Clinton campaign even called up to complain. “[PBS anchor] Judy Woodruff was interviewing me that day and said, ‘How did you assume this? Why did you assume this?’” Ms Selzer recalled to Politico.
    “I go, ‘I assumed nothing.’ My data told me this was what was going to happen.”
    I would add that I just saw an interview of Selzer and she indicated that if a majority of undecided voters and those who indicated that they were voting third party (RFK, Jr. is still on the ballot in Iowa) end up voting for Trump he could still carry the state although the shift among women previously predisposed to vote Republican is not good news for the Orange One.

     
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  8. gatorchamps960608

    gatorchamps960608 GC Hall of Fame

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    The other big factor that isn't captured at all is that she will double or triple his crossover vote. A lot of GOP women don't want to be chained back up in the kitchen, either.
     
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  9. citygator

    citygator VIP Member

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    Charlotte
     
  10. GatorTheo

    GatorTheo Junior

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    I'd like to see a poll of women asking how many care about the unborn children. I bet a lot of them would....maybe not a majority, though.
     
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  11. okeechobee

    okeechobee GC Hall of Fame

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    Speaking of Polymarket, they are back up to 58% to 42% Trump.
     
  12. GatorTheo

    GatorTheo Junior

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    You think democrats as a whole are comfortable with Kamala?
     
  13. HeyItsMe

    HeyItsMe GC Hall of Fame

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    Lol, right wingers are pathetic.
     
  14. gatorchamps960608

    gatorchamps960608 GC Hall of Fame

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    Very. But they'd vote for the ghost of LBJ over Trump.

    Keep in mind there are still Democrats like my late father still alive that never switched parties but haven't voted for a Dem president since JFK.
     
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  15. citygator

    citygator VIP Member

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    There are thousands of polls which all say the same thing. "stay the **** out of our body".
     
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  16. GatorTheo

    GatorTheo Junior

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    But I'd like to specifically ask about the unborn child. I'd imagine democrat leaning polls don't mention that at all.
     
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  17. GatorJMDZ

    GatorJMDZ gatorjack VIP Member

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    It will be interesting in the coming months after the investigations have been conducted to see who was behind the manipulation of Polymarket and the betting sites along with how it was done. More election interference.
     
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  18. VAg8r1

    VAg8r1 GC Hall of Fame

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    She may not be their ideal choice but she is infinitely superior to the joker representing the other party and once again a vote for Kamala Harris based on aversion to Donald Trump counts just as much as a vote for her based on her positive attributes.
     
  19. VAg8r1

    VAg8r1 GC Hall of Fame

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  20. citygator

    citygator VIP Member

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    Women by a large margin want women to make the decision on their own bodies. Thats what the polls show.
     
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