Trump vs. Harris - Please put all new polls here.

Interesting. Don’t know why but I never feel good about MI. I’ve kinda felt in my gut that whoever wins Pennsylvania is going to win it all.

 

That’s what I’ve been saying, she has more viable paths than him right now because he needs to hold his three swing states where he has a small lead (GA, NC and AZ) and flip PA. She just needs to hold/defend three states. So path wise, she has more, while Trump has a slight poll lead. But here are the various scenarios. Anyone winning five of the seven swing states wins. But other draws…
If she holds PA, he has to win WI or MI, and hold NC, GA and AZ (plus the unlikely IA/NV combo).
If he wins PA only in the rust belt, she can win 2/3 of NV NC and GA and win. Or AZ and either NC or GA and win.
If he wins just WI in the rust belt, she can win any one of NC, GA, AZ or in a crazier scenario, NV/IA to offset it.
If he wins just MI in the rust belt, either GA or NC offset it. Plus an NV/AZ combo does too.
If she wins NC or GA, he has to win PA or MI and WI and sweep AZ NV and GA.
If she wins NC and GA, he has to win 2/3 in the rust belt to win and hold AZ and NV.
If she wins NV/IA (unlikely but not impossible) he has to win MI or PA and hold the rest of the sunbelt.
If Trump takes 2/3 in the rust belt, she can make it up with NC/GA if it’s WI/MI or WI/PA. If it’s MI/PA, NC/NV/GA get her back to a win.
Even if he sweeps the rust belt, NC/GA/AZ (or the unlikely IA/NV in place of AZ) offsets that.

The potential issue that makes it all moot though is if Trump is being undercounted again. If so he might sweep all 7 and it will be a quick night. If the aggregated polls are accurate I think she wins a relative squeaker, if Selzer is even close to right on where midwest white america is, she rolls.

 

This is basically where I am.

 

I think the other potential issue is that if Trump wins PA, he is likely to win at least one of MI or WI. He could lose NV and NC and still get to 270. I've seen some analysis that suggest PA is the hard state to flip so if that goes, other states are going with it.

 

I raised this in another thread, Does it make sense that Amendment 4 (abortion) is right at the 60% approval threshold according to polling, but Trump leads the state by 5%? Something is very wrong.

 

Eh I dunno. Friend of mine told me yesterday that he voted for Amendments 3 and 4. I didn’t bother asking but sure he voted for Trump and I didn’t want to argue about it during Gator game. He is essentially a single issue voter (very pro 2nd Amendment), and he doesn’t trust Democrats on the issue at all. Another person also told me she voted for both Amendments and voted for Trump. Her big issues are economics/taxes and immigration. FWIW.

 

of course not all Repubs are maga, but it’s also not a automatic down party line.






Public Opinion on Abortion

 

What I am noticing in Silver's model is that Trump is still gaining this week in the battleground polling, after gaining 2.2 points in the past month. Meaning, I don't think Harris is really gaining any traction here. If anything, Trump still has the momentum. Still 2 days left for this to change, but with momentum on Trump's side, it seems like he is about to land a significant victory on Tuesday.

Also, if we go to RCP, of the last 5 national polls released, 4 of them show a clear, definitive Trump victory scenario and the ABC poll at +3 for Harris could go either way in the electoral college. These polls are going to have to be wrong by a solid 3+ points. Even Biden's final vote % didn't deviate that much from the RCP spread. So, we'd have to assume this will be the biggest miss in the last 8 years for the RCP spread, that the momentum in the battlegrounds to Trump is meaningless and that the EV numbers showing heavy GOP voting are pointing to a Harris win. I can understand hoping your candidate wins, but realistically, it's not in the cards for Harris.

 

This has been out a few days, but it's YouGov, so slamming the source isn't going to work. This is very significant:

Trump tops Harris by 2 points among Arab American voters: Survey

Former President Trump leads Vice President Harris by 2 points among Arab American voters, according to a survey released Monday.

The poll, conducted by Arab News/YouGov, found Trump leading the Democratic nominee 45 percent to 43 percent among Arab Americans, despite those voters seeing the Republican nominee as more supportive of Israel’s current government.

Polls over the last month have shown that Trump holds a lead among this demographic voting bloc, erasing the traditional 2-to-1 Democratic advantage. That could have a particularly significant impact in the swing state of Michigan, home to hundreds of thousands of Muslim voters and Arab voters. President Biden won the state by close to 150,000 votes.

Donald Trump edges Kamala Harris by 2 points among Arab American voters

 

You don’t have to feel it in your gut, where goes Penn, where goes the president.

 

I would add that the poll in the linked article was sampled during the period from Sept. 26 through Oct. 1.

A lot has changed since then. This is much more recent (November):
Arab American voters see Trump as an ‘extreme danger’

With so much at stake, many Palestinian-American, Arab-American, and Muslim leaders and activists are endorsing Harris, including Muslim clerics who declared, “Knowingly enabling someone like Donald Trump to return to office, whether by voting directly for him or a third-party candidate, is both a moral and a strategic failure.”

Leaders of the Palestinian, Arab-American, and Muslim communities and allies in Arizona, where approximately 100,000 Arab Americans live, announced their support for Harris despite bitter opposition to Biden administration policies in Gaza.​

 

I would t necessarily listen to Elise Stefanik if you want actual truth, and zero percent chance she loses the state, but there has been some talk that some of the house seats there that the Dems are counting on to flip the chamber are going tougher than expected. If the Dems don’t win it back, it could be rural New York that is the difference.

 

Somewhere up thread I posted a poll in the last few days that had something like Stein 43, Harris 42 and Trump 10 among Arab Americans. If that poll holds true in MI, the whole Arab vote discussion is moot as it’s almost a straight wash, she’s pulling pretty evenly from both.

 

Elise Stafanik is the reverse Liz Cheney. She won her seat in upstate New York as a moderate Republican and has become ultra MAGA, a high priestess in the Cult of the Donald.

 

Somebody clearly doesn't understand how math works. Even if this holds true, it's still very bad for Kamala.

 

Not good for Harris and I happen to think the support for Stein is somewhat exaggerated but not nearly as bad if Trump was polling at 50% or better.

 

It's still pretty bad for Harris if Stein splinters 43% of the total Arab-American vote away in Michigan. That's roughly 86,000~ votes. The name of the game is who gets the most votes in the state wins. He is cutting into her margins in so many key demographics that Democrats used to consider easy money. If you're assuming the vote is splitting 4.2 Harris to every 1 vote for Trump (which is in line with 2020), that's 65,500~ votes Biden got that Harris is not going to get in Michigan. But I tend to believe Al-Jazeera when they say Arab-Americans are flocking to President Trump in Michigan, so it's actually quite worse than 65,500~ votes:

Why many Arab voters in Michigan are flocking to Trump ahead of US election

 

Anyone voting for Stein as a protest vote for the war in Gaza might as well not even vote. I’m empathetic towards those who are passionate towards what’s going on over there, but if you don’t hold down the fort here in your own country first and allow a Trump victory because of your third party vote, things will definitely get worse for you personally here. Elect Harris now, address and hopefully resolve the war afterwards. Besides, Trump is absolutely 100% worse with regards to the war, he’s even said as much.