Trump vs. Harris - Please put all new polls here.

I had forgotten what he said about the 2012 election as well but stumbled across it today; he claimed Romney won the popular vote.

Donald Trump's 2012 Election Tweetstorm Resurfaces as Popular and Electoral Vote Appear Divided

“The electoral college is a disaster for a democracy,” wrote Trump as part of a tweetstorm on election night 2012.

***

“This election is a total sham and a travesty. We are not a democracy!”

***

“He lost the popular vote by a lot and won the election. We should have a revolution in this country!” said Trump in one deleted tweet, and “More votes equals a loss … revolution!” in another.

The complaints from 2012 resurfaced earlier in the campaign cycle as Trump began to allege that the election would be rigged. In an interview with ABC News’ George Stephanopoulos on Oct. 26, he was probed about the tweets and said he felt the same about the 2016 election, though ascribed the “rigging” to the media rather than the electoral college.

 

Selzer's poll is not fake news hoping to gaslight people after all.

 

Even if you don't believe the Selzer poll Trump is in trouble. +5 should be cause for concern

 

LOL!!

 

I posted her history upthread, she is arguably the best pollster in the country. Several times before she has had these shock polls, and each time she has been right and everyone else wrong. She was the one who basically poured cold water on both Biden and Hillary when folks were talking blowout. She was lambasted by the left and proven right, she is not a partisan hack.
The very nature of polling means that there’s a variance of up to 3.4 percent in her poll for each candidate (so almost 7 percent total), and a 1/20 chance that it’s outside of that, so we will see. Maybe this is her outlier. I think the betting money will understandably still be with Trump, one poll isn’t the final say. But even if it’s at the edge of 1 standard deviation though (right at the 95 percent), Trump is only up 4 and she gained 4 points from last cycle. That would be great news for Harris because there’s a correlation with the other midwestern states so she’s likely outperforming in the rust belt too.
But bottom line is when she speaks, everyone, and I mean everyone who knows polling and politics listens. I will guarantee you this sent a blast through Trump’s staff tonight. In fact I know it did, because they immediately sent out an internal memo trying to discredit her and say why the recent Emerson poll that had him up 9 is more accurate. If they were truly comfortable and didn’t think it had weight they would have just ignored it as garbage. But not seemingly understanding that having a woman on the ticket in a post Roe world in a state that implemented a 6 week abortion ban might influence things is pretty odd.

 

I guess NY and IA are heading different ways.

 

LOL! Because Elise Stefanik isn’t biased at all. Trump has exactly zero percent chance to win New York. Your boy is in serious trouble, I’m sorry if you don’t want to accept it.

 

If this holds up, MAGA's suffering Tuesday evening will be both legendary and absolutely delicious.

 

He won't win NY but I think he will make gains there. There is a theory that she won't need as large as a popular vote to win the EC because Trump will see an increase in inconsequential states such as FL, CA and NY

 

Man, buckle up on Tuesday. The last big set of polls before the election.

 

And Atlas Intel just dropped Trump sweeping all the swing states…. I have no idea what’s going to happen Tuesday…. Both Atlas Intel and NYTs are highly rated pollsters.

 

The Siena poll is significantly better than the Atlas poll, which has been quite off the mark recently. Trump isn’t sweeping all the swing states, lmao.

 

I personally think it’s a toss up also. The question is, what do we do when many others see it differently? I think it’s natural to assume the others are seeing it wrong, but I’ve gained more respect for the views of other people over time. When I see betting markets jumping on Trump, it makes me wonder if I’m the one seeing it wrong. Of course, markets aren’t perfect, but I know for sure that neither am I!

 

Wife's spoke to her sister yesterday. Both she (sister-in-law) and her husband voted early for Trump. Probably not surprising considering they're both graduates of FSU.

 

One last relevant poll. This is a well respected local pollster.

 

6% MOE, but I’d still much rather be Harris entering Election Day than Trump with all this new data and the exit poll results we’ve been seeing.

 

Me too. I gained a lot of respect for Trump voters when they didn't care that he was repeatedly publicly lying about the FEMA response to hurricanes, which impeded the response, and incited his supporters to nearly commit acts of violence against aid workers.

It was hard to surpass the respect I gained for people who would vote for a guy who publicly (and repeatedly) lied that immigrants were eating dogs and cats. But when he deep-throated the mic, I respected their feelings even more.

Ya know, there actually is a time for value judgements.

 

I still think no one really knows what is going on. R early vote is up, D early vote is down. Have not seen anything on which way Indies are breaking that would give some clarity on early voting numbers. It is going to be a wild Tuesday.

Did see something interesting this morning. Harris can lose PA and still get to 273 if she flips NC and holds NV, WI, and MI. I think that might explain why the Trump campaign is spending so much time in NC.

 

Not sure that’s entirely accurate. I’d point out:

Mail-in requests for Dems and Pubs are down.

Early voting is up by both.

Pubs are increasing their low early vote levels to levels still below democrats.

I don’t think any of it means much. When isn’t IF you vote.