Trump vs Desantis: New THFSG Poll Added

Why? Whoever is the Pub nominee is likely to take Florida in the general election v Biden (if Florida has truly shifted as right as we appear to have as evidenced by the last gubernatorial election)

 

Agree with the first statement. Trump has a near lock on the nomination. While it would be the political equivalent of a hail Mary the only way another candidate could win the nomination would be if he/she attacks Trump aggressively. Although that strategy would most likely be political suicide in aparty that's strongly wedded to the Orange One the only way to beat the bully is stand up to him. The apparent strategy of DeSantis as well as the other candidates for the nomination with the possible exception with Asa Hutchinson is avoid serious criticism of Trump while trying to present one's self as an alternative. So far that strategy has failed and in the Party of Trump it appears that most Republican voters aren't willing to support an alternative when the real deal is running. I also mentioned it in several other posts and although it would appear counter-intuitive on its face, the more the legal system closes in on Trump the stronger he becomes. Another indictment whether from a grand jury in Georgia for election law violations or from one or more federal grand juries for mishandling classified documents including misrepresentation to a Federal court or instigating the failed January 6, 2021 insurrection or both should add another 10 percentage points to Trump's margin over Meatball Ron. Also somewhat ironic Ron DeSantis's positions back when he was a conventional fiscal conservative in the House like raising the social security retirement age, partially privatizing the program or his support of what is essentially a federal sales tax have been the focus Trump's campaign against him and if the ads are effective could really come back to bite him.

 

What will REALLY be interesting is whether Florida’s primary turns out Trump or DeSantis.

 

If I were betting I would have to put money the Republican candidate to carry Florida. On the other hand and adding the caveat that this is the view from afar I would have never expected a Democrat to win the Jacksonville mayoral election.

 

I would have to put my money on Trump. Trump actually has more endorsements from members of Florida's congressional delegation than does DeSantis and if the Trump campaign's ads focusing on DeSantis previous positions on social security are effective they could really hurt Meatball Ron among senior citizens (residents of the Villages coming immediately to mind). It's very possible that the Florida 2020 Republican primary could end up as a redux of the 2016 primary when another (former at the time) governor of Florida lost to the Orange One.
Trump Is Racking Up Endorsements In Florida. Should DeSantis Be Worried?

 

I think the last gov race was an outlier. Im not saying Florida hasnt shifted right, but certainly not that far. That was just the Dems running a terrible candidate.

 

I don't know when the Fla primary is, but that too could play a part. If Trump is rolling, people - for some dumb reason - like to jump on the bandwagon.

 

The primary is on March 19th along with primaries in Arizona, Illinois and Ohio. Considering that the delegates are awarded on a winner-take-all basis in all of those states, Trump only needs to "win" each of the primaries by a small margin with only a plurality of the votes to effectively wrap up the nomination.

 

Just want to state after everything we've seen since 2016, I've completely lost faith in a large portion of this country, given the fact that we are still discussing Trump as the probable nominee. Absolutely batshit bonkers.

 

I never had faith in most people. America is no longer Land of the Free and Home of the Brave. It is Land of the Ignorant and Home of the Hatemongers.

 

Trump never received most of the votes, but that's a somewhat technical silver lining. The fact that Trump is the favorite to be the GOP nominee for the third time is depressing. If he wins the nomination, the general could go either way. I'd still bet he loses the popular vote by millions even if the E.C. bails them out again.

 

Worst run campaign I’ve ever seen, including campaigns when the candidate drops out.

 

Absent a complete economic meltdown I cannot Trump winning. In 2018, 2020 and 2022, Democratic candidates won almost very statewide election in the swing states (MI, WI, PA, NV and AZ), the two exceptions that come to mind are Wisconsin where Ron Johnson was reelected to the Senate with slightly over 50% of the vote and Nevada in which the Democratic incumbent governor was defeated in a very close election in response to the Covid lockdowns which devastated the economy of a state dependent on tourism and even in those states Democrats won every other statewide election.

 

I see it slightly different than a logical analysis of policy and issues.

I see Trump losing because the overwhelming majority of Never-Trumpers are more entrenched in their Never-Trumping.

 

1. fear is a POWERFUL drug
2. people vote almost exclusively due to emotion
3. Trump's peeps are well versed in 1 & 2.
4. Biden/Harris is a joke of a ticket

 

Not really inconsistent with my post. Unlike 2016, in which the "Trump sucks but be cannot be all the bad" voters who were pissed off at Hillary Clinton and the DNC stayed home in 2020 they became absolute "Never Trumpers" and turned out especially in the swing states. 2024 will most likely be a repeat of 2020. Absent either a resurgence of inflation and/or a significant increase in unemployment the remaining swing voters will vote Democrat and the Never Trumpers will remain Never Trumpers.

 

Trump

 

We will see, but if I were a registered Republican voter,I’d probably vote Trump over DeSantis, only because I actually think Trump is less dangerous of the 2, and that’s saying something considering I have become staunch Never Trumper.

 

Too early to say. 3/19/24

The tearing down of a sitting governor in a decider state harms TFG