If the table is a RED X, click here to take a look. https://www.aei.org/carpe-diem/yes-...al-evidence-suggests-its-very-very-expensive/ Tariff Tracker: Tracking the Economic Impact of Tariffs We estimate the Trump-Biden tariffs will reduce long-run GDP by 0.2 percent, the capital stock by 0.1 percent, and employment by 142,000 full-time equivalent jobs. Altogether, the trade war policies currently in place add up to $79 billion in tariffs based on trade levels at the time of tariff implementation and excluding behavioral and dynamic effects. Before accounting for behavioral effects, the $79 billion in higher tariffs amounts to an average annual tax increase on US households of $625. Based on actual revenue collections data, trade war tariffs have directly increased tax collections by $200 to $300 annually per US household, on average. Both estimates understate the cost to US households because they do not factor in the lost output, lower incomes, and loss in consumer choice the tariffs have caused. President-elect Trump has promised to impose tariffs of 25 percent on all imports from Canada and Mexico and an additional 10 percent tariff on all imports from China when he takes office. If imposed permanently, we estimate these tariffs would generate $1.2 trillion in tax revenue from 2025 through 2034 on a conventional basis. In the long run, we estimate the tariffs would reduce GDP by 0.4 percent and employment by 344,900 jobs. Our estimates do not capture the effects of retaliation, nor the additional harms that would stem from starting a global trade war. Academic and governmental studies find the Trump-Biden tariffs have raised prices and reduced output and employment, producing a net negative impact on the US economy.
doing nothing would be better. 1. tariffs raise prices, cost jobs & reduce US competitiveness & will not reduce drug deaths.
A tariff is a tool and a toolbox. Do you use just one tool to build a house which is what he's trying to do, but you already know that. Feel free to tell us the reason for the tears so that next week we can talk about his new reason for imposing those same tariffs
I disagree, Doc. Who needs free trade? Tariffs have never caused America problems. Never ever in our entire history.
Actually across-the-board tariffs would likely cause more drug deaths. When the economy gets worse, so called 'deaths of despair' typically increase. I do however think there is good reason for tariffs on many Chinese products. We disagree there.
I prob would agree on some. In the late 1800s the US was allegedly following Adam Smith's advice & only implementing tariffs to help nascent industries & industries with national security concerns. A British economist (Alfred Marshall) came over to check it out as he was interested in its success. What he found were tariffs on well connected industries. AM:“I found that, however simple the plan on which a protective policy started, it was drawn on irresistibly to become intricate; and to lend its chief aid to those industries which were already strong enough to do without it.” In today's climate it seems they would be almost wholly political. This is 1 of many reasons why I don't get that this power is so easy for a prez to wield. It screams for corruption.
Paul Krugman just had a piece about crony capitalism in which he talks about that very thing. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/25/opinion/trump-tariffs-deportations.html Why do tariffs create more potential for cronyism than other taxes? Because the way they operate under our laws offers so much room for discretionary enforcement. The Treasury secretary can’t simply exempt his friends from income taxes (although Andrew Mellon handed out highly questionable rebates in the 1920s). The president can, however, exempt allies from tariffs. And does anyone really believe that the Trump administration will be too ethical to do so? Trump himself has bragged about his ability to game the system; he has bragged that not paying his fair share of taxes makes him “smart.”
Further, China, MX & Canada have an EZ move. Come out & say these tariffs would cause great hardship for your industries & people. We will devote all our efforts & resources to crushing the scourge of fentanyl. We have no choice but to yield to Trump's powerful move. & do nothing. The sound bite is all that matters.
Not only COVID. But also the Inflation Reduction Act and the Chips Act. China has still to recover while our economy grew. But, food prices and consumer prices went up because of the COVID and post-COVID adjustments to the supply chains and weather related impacts in agriculture, and that was Biden’s fault in the mind of voters. Even though BIDEN’s polices allowed the economy to grow and avoid the recession in the east of the world and kept inflation lower than the rest of the world. Trump’s tariffs will be more inflationary than his isolated tariffs because they are across the board. So are his immigration policies because those will eviscerate labor in certain industries. But as long as his message is anti-immigrant, his supporters will back him, even after they notice in rural areas that they aren’t selling as much products because the farm workers aren’t there
I don't think it's the party. I think it's Trump. He seems to believe that the 1890's were America's greatest decade economically, even though there was a 4-year depression and a 2-year recession during that decade. In reality, tariffs are good for the billionaires and executives of manufacturing companies. For factory workers it's a mixed bag: there will be more jobs available, but their effective income will be reduced dramatically by what they have to spend for more expensive consumer goods. For everyone else, it is a disaster.
For one thing, they cause inflation and interest rate increases. Real estate experts are predicting that Trump's tariffs will jack up the mortgage rate from 6.1% to 6.8%. New house prices will go higher without Mexican labor. Basically, tariffs are a tax on the poor. Everyone who is a consumer will pay the tax, but the poor will be least able to afford to pay. The billionaires will do just fine, so don't you worry about Trump. Trump is actually the first president to actually believe that the 1890's were America's best decade economically. He is not bothered by the 4-year depression or the 2-year recession that occurred. Billionaires were on top of the world, and to Trump, that's what counts. Never mind that many billionaires were operating monopolies and forcing out the competition, or building their fortune by selling opium to China. They were filthy rich! To hell with the common man! If they were worth a damn, they wouldn't be so easy to con out of their life savings! Anyone in the middle class stupid enough to believe his life will get better under Trump and his tariffs deserves every bit of misery that's coming his way. And anyone gullible enough to believe that Trump's tariffs will bend Mexico in particular to do whatever Trump wants is in for a rude awakening as well. If Mexico is successful in keeping Mexican immigrants out of the U.S., a lot of people will not be able to afford to eat. Again, this will not affect billionaires. Mortgage Rates Near 7% Are Here To Stay? How Trump's Tariffs Could Hit Homebuyers Hard
I bet China will continue to egg the tariffs on. 'minds of a poker tourney years ago, where a guy slow played 2 pairs as if it was a monster.
Spot on analysis, as usual, but you're not mentioning a major factor that we all know well by now; Trump doesn't give a shit if the United States goes into a recession or a depression........as long as it happens after he leaves office. He plays the long con, but it's always to take any and all immediate profits off the table. He very well might be able to wring the perception of some concessions from other nations....convince his utterly convinceable rubes that he/they are "winning" .....and then skate out of office. It would be at least a year or two longer than "immediately" for inflation to hit - Trump will be gone. Would just be a repeat of what we saw already; the economically illiterate blaming it on the next person.
New Nafta & Trump-Biden tariffs are really bad for long term US competitiveness. These new tariffs OR ONLY THE THREATS of new tariffs are very bad long term. The HUGE econ adv of the us is consistency & minimal uncertainty. Trump is a shaswasbucking moron. Can you imagine a farmer's decision if they had to plant crops BEFORE they knew the tax on their crops?
As much as I hate to admit it maybe Trump's threat of tariffs against Mexican products has already had an impact. Mexican troops seize a record fentanyl haul in northern Sinaloa state
Not new. Mexico and Canada before threats https://www.reuters.com/world/ameri...mexico-raises-drug-lab-raids-data-2023-03-17/ Mexico raids and closes 31 pharmacies that were selling fentanyl-laced pills in beach town of Ensenada near border https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/01/world/canada/canada-drug-lab-fentanyl.html
Wait, what? Trump just stopped the drug trade?! Because he's really really strong and threatening? Or the Mexican government made sure to make a bust or two right when the makeup wearing clown wanted to point at something? Please don't say you're believing his lies. It's not like we don't have a blueprint for his con. I mean, why didn't he stop the drug trade during his first term? Because it was all a con?
Trump was too busy building the wall in his first term to do anything intelligent. Only another 344 years of the Trump presidency, and we will complete the Great Wall of Trump, even though it will look suspiciously like a fence. As long as Mexico does not discover bolt cutters or ladders in the next 344 years, all will be well.
