Top meteorologists sound ‘alarm bells’ on worrying outlook for 2024 hurricane season

It’s not, but they don’t get clicks by saying nothing or telling people that you really don’t know.

 

The preseason predictions are actually pretty decent,

Tracking the Tropics: How accurate are hurricane season forecasts? | WFLA

 

From the link: "Taking an average of the season’s number of storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes when compared to the forecast, NOAA was off by 2.47 storms in the last 11 years, from 2010 to 2020."

Those 11 years saw an average of 16.8 storms per year, so that's 14.7% margin of error.

Take out the high and low outliers (2010 was off by 1 / 2020 was off by 14), and they were under 2 storms a year off - or ~12%

yes - I'm stuck in a meaningless meeting.

 

I'm not sure you're going to meet many leftists that are pro-clearcutting forests. We are talking about "tree-huggers," right?

 

oddly, in this case, cutting pollution led to extra warming

Cutting pollution from the shipping industry accidentally increased global warming, study suggests | Live Science

The shipping industry's attempt to reduce air pollution has inadvertently accelerated global warming in the short term and contributed to record-breaking sea temperatures, according to a new climate model.

Recent global shipping regulations slashed the sulfur dioxide emissions from cargo ships by a dramatic 80%. But this rapid reduction in sulfur pollution may have "created an inadvertent geoengineering termination shock with global impact," a new study has suggested.

"The warming effect is consistent with the recent[ly] observed strong warming in 2023 and [is] expected to make the 2020s anomalously warm," the researchers wrote. The warming is equivalent in magnitude to "80% of the measured increase in planetary heat uptake since 2020."

 

It's all good guys. DeSantis has banned climate change, so we can ignore the abnormally high water temperatures and collectively stick our heads back in the sand.

 

Also a couple of extension cords. He may need to put the big fans a little further away from the power outlets for better video

 

Get that man a sharpie and we will all be safe.

 

I’m guessing Sulfur Dioxide reflects sunlight so less has let more sunlight in?

 

Since global warming is a threat to individual home ownership via loss of insurance after all these superstorms, I find it hard to believe that the powers that be are interested in slowing or stopping it. That would delay their buying up all the property and herding us into rental plantations.

 

Beryl is already confirming the bad predictions.
It’s acting like a Cape Verde storm in June, about to be a cat 3 or four heading into the islands.
Florida isn’t off the hook yet either.

 

I’m down here in the Carib for a few weeks. Should be fun

 

Stay safe. Hopefully you're above the path of the storm.

 

Read the post above yours. In an effort to have cleaner air we may have made things worse.

 

Sadly it appears the link is to reducing sulfur dioxide in diesel fuel for cargo ships.. Doh!

 

No, the link is to producing carbon. It is just that particulate pollution could somewhat limit the effects of warming by blocking out more sun. Perhaps, the best idea isn't to have two pollutants race to see which could impact the environment first and cause a catastrophe. BTW, even before cutting particulate pollution, the evidence was suggesting that carbon was going to win anyways.

 

Neither are good but the massive reduction in sulfur has caused the SST in the ITCZ to spike rapidly.

Just need a few big volcanos to erupt to help it cool down.