Too Hot Investment Thread

I'm certainly not arguing that it's the sound overall investment strategy to throw 100K at a beat up tech stock or into ETH. Again, I'd only personally condone that idea for someone already worth millions.

But there is some truth to the idea that diversification can limit upside, especially the outdated notion that you want part of your portfolio to move in negative correlation with other parts, so that if one part goes down, another's going up.

 

is Tesla a buy here? Added some amazon on an order I forgot was open but happy to take it at this price.

 

I tried that concentration thing on shale oil. It went great, until it didn't and I was too stupid to pull the plug in time. There is a mix that will create with limited risk. 10 year horizon but no more 70% + concentration in any industry

 

I had about $100k sitting in cash in an IRA - I put it into SPY when it pulled back to $400 earlier this month. As far as I'm concerned, the pullback is a buying opportunity. I'm in it for the long haul.

 

I bought some more Amazon in the past week or so. Painful but true, I remember waiting for AMZN to come back to 30 so I could invest the $1,000 I’d somehow managed to scrape together in the early days. It never did.

 

Sold some and bought Phillips 66.

 

Another brutal day. I can only imagine the losses some in the riskier sectors are having to swallow.
Up til now, my home price gain had largely insulated me from an overall large loss, but I suspect that’s about to change too.
Fun times.

 

queue the crypto currency comments...

 

Really feels like the next shoe to drop. Hard to see how the market can sustain these Uber high home prices when everything else is plummeting.

 

Ive been pummelled in Boeing. Grew overweight with 7 years of gains all but wiped out since April. Everytime I think about exiting I remember how hard it is to build commercial airlines and how many companies dominate the world market. Guaranteed when I sell it will bounce. At least I have resisted my urges to deploy cash just yet. Want to add more Amazon but think discretionary retail is going to contract and drive it lower but Im usually wrong ...

 

My $1000 of crypto fun money and “store of value” at this point has successfully stored $393 of the $1000.

 

I've asked many times how you value cryptos when there is no intrinsic value. I've never received an intelligent response.

 

my wife, who has a PhD in Econ & has been a finance prof for 25 years, was fuming mad when the WSJ had a headline that Bitcoin lost $X in value b/c in her opinion it has no value. Within hours they had literally changed the headline to bitcoin drops $x. I thought it was funny/weird. it made her happy.

 

How low will it go? This ain’t fun any more.

 

200+ creating. Little different when you work in PE. Overall agree with your thoughts on the public markets.

 

Depends on what you think earnings get cut to? I personally think the calls for a $200 S&P earnings next year are overdoing it. They then put a 15 multiple on that and get to a 3000 S&P level. That would be another 15% down from here. I don’t see it getting that low. I think we are within 3-5% of the bottom and unfortunately the markets only get inflation data once a month. It’s going to stay volatile until we see moderation in that data.

 

Posting for a friend.



from twitter.

 

I actually have a very good protection mechanism - when the market's not good, I generally don't look. That's beneficial because it keeps me from making emotional/rash decisions.

I did look today to see what the damage is. Across stock accounts, I'm down 18% since the high in December. That's a lot of money, like a new 911 Turbo AND a Boxster Spyder. Ouch! But in a lot of ways, it's monopoly money, it's gone up massively the last few years. On the other hand, RE is still hanging in there, and my total net worth is only down by 11% overall. That I can live with. This isn't my first bear market, and I'm not making any changes.

 

Thank you for sharing. It’s good to hear how others view the current conditions.