I think he made the same mistake that most of the other pollsters did, i.e. using models relying on historic norms that had the effect of underestimating voter turnout by younger voters. Additionally, voter enthusiasm i.e. the propensity to actually vote appeared to peak for the Democrats immediately following the Dobbs decision and waned over the last couple of months to the point in which it favored the Republicans before shifting again a few days before the election. My guess is the prognosticators missed the last minute shift and assumed that the apparent higher voter enthusiasm favored Republicans in those elections within the MOE.
Obama and Oprah stumping for Dems the last few weeks may have helped get out the vote. The power of celebrity cannot be discounted.
Luntz was on tv yesterday and said that he doesn't do his own polling anymore, so he did throw them under the bus a bit. But he also said he thought it was important to concede that his prediction was wrong.
That may have definitely been the case in Pennsylvania where most of the polls had Dr. Oz and John Fetterman within the margin of error. What's somewhat ironic is that one of the posters to this board, echoing a Fox infotainment star suggested that Obama was abandoning Fetterman because Obama didn't immediately express support of Fetterman following his debate with Oz. It was absurd when he originally posted it considering that Obama never cancelled any scheduled appearances in PA and even more absurd in retrospect considering the Obama vigorously campaigned on Fetterman's behalf. edit: Found the post, also something that didn't age well.
Oceechobee posts so many thing that just aren’t true. I get it he’s a rabid partisan and troll, i’m also a partisan (due to the choices I’m presented with) but I try hard to ensure the things I post (outside of opinion) are true.
This is seems to be the source for @okeechobee's post. Apparently, he is an avid viewer of Fox News. Obama silent on Fetterman support after debate struggles - FoxNews
So, you think conservatives starting voting blue because of student debt? Give me some of what you've been smoking fella.
Well, for starters, POTUS isn't decided by popular vote, you're right. But, unless I'm mistaken, every election held last week was.
Indeed. And reminds me of another great quote from Le Rochefoucauld: Everyone complains of his memory, and nobody complains of his judgment.
