So I read this morning that the only #1 seed coach not on the short list for National COTY is our very own Golden. Pearl, Scheyer and Sampson had solid teams coming in, all were ranked in the Top 11 to start the year. That's on top of the SEC doing the same thing. This happened to Billy D too. He never won National COTY, not even after winning his 2nd straight. He didn't win the SEC COTY until 2011. It seems the only way you get COTY is you are a coach of a blue blood or have name recognition. The short list: Bruce Pearl - Auburn - Preseason #11 Jon Scheyer - Duke - Preseason #7 Sampson - Houston - Preseason #4 Rick Pitino - St Johns - Preseason #29 Not on the list Todd Golden - Florida - Preseason #21 Of the actual short list, Pitino better get it since St Johns wasn't even ranked in the Top 25. But they are going to hand it to whoever wins the championship unless Todd wins it and they give it to the losing coach.
Coach of the Year is crazy stuff. In 1994 Lon Kruger was SEC Coach of the Year but Nolan Richardson was National Coach of the Year.
Screw them and their “bestowed” honors. The ones that matter are those you earn yourself, or with your teams.
I think your argument about exceeding expectations should play a role. On the other hand, everyone complains about how crappy are the preseason polls, so in another way, taking a team from #28 to #5 might just show how bad the preseason poll was.