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The great population growth slowdown

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by philnotfil, Feb 2, 2022.

  1. philnotfil

    philnotfil GC Hall of Fame

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    We need more babies, or more immigrants, or to stop defining growth as the pinnacle of economic success.

    The great population growth slowdown

    Slower population growth might paradoxically make it harder to pull off that transition, however. Fewer babies make for aging countries, which slows down economic growth and holds back innovation. It can be harder to build support for future-focused policy in a country with fewer children — just look at the gerontocracy that is the US government, with its 79-year-old president and its octogenarian legislative and judicial branches.

    And while it might seem as if slowing or even declining population would at least reduce crippling housing prices, that might not be the case. Conor Sen notes in Bloomberg that as people flee dozens of shrinking metros like Toledo or Syracuse, they’re likely to crowd into those cities that are still growing, like Austin or Raleigh, further pushing up housing prices there.

    Crafting policies to encourage people to have more children is difficult and expensive, as country after country has learned. That’s why for nations like the US that have historically boosted their population with immigration, encouraging more migrants is likely the fastest and most resilient way to keep population growth vibrant.

    But while last year marked the first time in US history that net international migration added more people to the population than net births, the number of people moving to America has still fallen drastically over the last several years, from over 1 million in 2016 to fewer than 250,000 between July 2020 and July 2021. That’s a function of both Trump-era immigration restriction policies and the lasting effects of the pandemic. Reversing that decline should be a national priority, and one that, unlike increasing births, is absolutely within reach.
     
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  2. docspor

    docspor GC Hall of Fame

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    I’ll take #3. Stop worrying about growth.
     
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  3. rivergator

    rivergator Too Hot Mod Moderator VIP Member

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    I’d like to help but my wife assures me we’re done with that
     
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  4. carpeveritas

    carpeveritas GC Hall of Fame

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    Appears to be a losing battle to me regardless of immigration policy. Nothing shows immigrants are going to have more babies than are currently being born now. The world has changed for better or worse.

    Nor is this merely an American phenomenon. By one estimate, half the world’s population lives in countries with below-replacement-level fertility, and nations like Japan — with very low birth rates and little immigration — are already experiencing population decline.
    What's not taken into account is why women are opting to have children in later years much less opting for none at all. Of course there is also the issue of abortions. Is there a solution to a global issue? Unless women decide to have more babies and men accept the role of providing and nurturing the family unit I think not.

    Why more women are deciding not to have kids

    Some Women Are Choosing Sterilization as Birth Rates Continue to Fall
     
    Last edited: Feb 4, 2022
  5. dadx4

    dadx4 GC Hall of Fame

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    Just convince her that she has to practice 2 -3 times every day. :)
     
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  6. jeffbrig

    jeffbrig GC Hall of Fame

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    I'd be ok with some growth slowdown in my area. Seems every piece of real estate that gets redeveloped here in S FL turns into 6 story condos/apartment. We have enough population density already, thank you very much. Sears closes - knock it down, build condos. Fashion mall closes - knock it down build condos. American Express office moves to new location - knock it down, build more condos.
     
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  7. wgbgator

    wgbgator Premium Member

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    Cant believe a capitalist is saying this
     
  8. studegator

    studegator GC Legend

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    Chart: The birth rate in every country — past, present and future
    Whichever the case, almost no one seems prepared. People are going to have to work longer, experts say. And the U.S. requires "major reforms" in its programs for the elderly, says Richard Cincotta, director of the Global Political Demography Program at the Stimson Center, and formerly a lead demographer for the U.S. intelligence community. But the government "seems to be nowhere near making the social security reforms that are needed."
    • Largely because of Africa, the global population is forecast to continue rising through the century past 11 billion. But according to the United Nations, there is a 23% chance the world population will stabilize or fall by then in a phenomenon that some demographers call “peak human.”
    • The most worrying figure: The world will not have sufficient working-age people to support the elderly. Currently, North America has just under four workers per retired person. Seven European countries have three, and Japan has just a bit more than two.
      • By 2050, seven Asian countries, 24 European and four Latin American will fall below two workers per retired person, the UN says.
      • This means “a rising fiscal burden and slower economic growth than if the population was not aging,” says Richard Jackson of the Global Aging Institute.
     
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  9. Potzer01

    Potzer01 GC Hall of Fame

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    Orlando.... Again
    Heh still possible for me but unlikely @ 41. Wifey and I are into making kids. Raising them tho, not real interested in that. Something about taking vacations, eating well, not worrying, going to events, getting sleep, and having money; stops us from well stopping birth control.
     
  10. l_boy

    l_boy 5500

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    Seems to me we should have a high priority of bringing in highly skilled immigrants, as well as other immigrants to fill out the work force.
     
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  11. oragator1

    oragator1 Premium Member

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    Population slowdown has benefits too. Fewer stresses on natural resources which helps prices for one. It also helps sustainability of resources like wild fish and water. Lower inflation, since growth slows, fewer infrastructure needs so less spending there, more green spaces if land isn’t built out or returned back to nature etc.
    Japan isn’t falling apart and they are way further down this path than us.
     
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  12. metalcoater

    metalcoater All American

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    I saw a pile of them crossing the Rio Grande, but I think most were looking for a handout and not to make America better.
     
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  13. G8trGr8t

    G8trGr8t Premium Member

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  14. VAg8r1

    VAg8r1 GC Hall of Fame

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    You are aware that illegal immigrants aren't eligible for benefits and even legal immigrants with green cards have to reside in the US for at least 5 years before they are eligible for federal assistance? Looking for handouts? Both legal and illegal immigrants are willing to take low-paying sometimes dangerous jobs that Americans born in the US refuse and last but certainly not least immigrants are more likely to become entrepreneurs than Americans born in the US.
     
    Last edited: May 27, 2022
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  15. Gatorrick22

    Gatorrick22 GC Hall of Fame

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    You can still pretend... Lol.
     
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  16. mrhansduck

    mrhansduck GC Hall of Fame

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    On one hand, it seems we need younger workers to pay into the systems seniors are relying upon and going to be relying upon since they are pay-as-you-go. On the other hand, I kinda feel like we need to take care of the people who are already here before begging people to have kids that they don't have the time or financial resources to raise.
     
  17. wgbgator

    wgbgator Premium Member

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    One thing we could do is actually make it financially viable for people to have kids, perhaps while also not letting schools become slaughterhouses
     
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  18. dangolegators

    dangolegators GC Hall of Fame

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    Handout? Those people work their asses off. When was the last time you saw a white man on a roof in the hot sun?
     
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  19. wgbgator

    wgbgator Premium Member

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    Getting paid sub-minimum wage to change your adult diaper isnt a handout
     
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  20. 92gator

    92gator GC Hall of Fame

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    Perhaps that's why she pulled the plug on him...

    :cool:
     
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