Come join us in the Anti-Analytics Resistance Front (AARF). We’re a paramilitary group of people with real sports experience focused on taking sports back from nerds who want to oppress us with Excel spreadsheets. Our main goal is to restore “coaching by feeling”, and we oppose the use of any primary statistics to create derivative statistics. We reject using analytics to inform any on-field, on-court or roster decisions. @Efawcett7 and his oppressive regime must be stopped at all costs. Will you join us, Brother?
There is NO way a gut feel coach can make a better decision than an analytics coach. Literally by definition. Analytics simply highlights the optimal decision making. Gut feel coaches may have the intuition to land on the optimal decision, but then it’s equivalent. The problem is when someone uses analytics incorrectly. If the model is incomplete or simply bad, they may think they have the optimal decision…but it’s not. That’s not the fault of analytics though, it’s the fault of someone who doesn’t know how to use analytics. If you are an analytics coach your staff needs to include multiple $200-300k statisticians…or you aren’t really an analytics coach. Our football team is a prime example. Isn’t Couch the analytics guy? It’s unserious and is why our decision making is awful (and frankly not analytical). An example of an awful model would be ESPNs 4th down decision maker they show during games. Thats not analytics. It’s a shitty model and anyone that uses it is lazy. Teams can (and some do) build a far more comprehensive 4th down decision model. And of course analytics doesn’t even touch many of the important things. Can you recruit? Can you teach? Can you motivate?
I disagree, but it also depends on what you mean by "better". Do you mean the decision with the most likely outcome, or the correct decision? Ultimately, the correct decision is the best option, but even "correct" is skewed, because there is no way to prove that choosing the another option wouldn't have worked. Analytics extrapolates too much context from singular points.
Haha! If there is one thing I hope that people will get from my years of coverage it's that I love analytics and think they are important--but I do not think they are more important than having an elite understanding of the game and schematic expertise. Analytics are an important tool to get advantages on the margins--but you need to be able to scheme first and foremost.
I was prepared to join, but then my "8-ball" said "not today". Oh well, when the mystics say something, you HAVE to listen.
Coaches are ultimately evaluated by the most they can get out of the players that they choose to put on the court. I suspect most of our basketball fans don't truly care whether coach is an analytics guy or a feels guy or some blend or any other variation you can think of. The knock on style only exists when the team appears to be performing below expectations. There's always going to be a chess match in terms of matchups and strategies, but if you can't get the players to execute a successful game plan, then it really doesn't matter how you came up with the idea. All that said, I think we won and covered, enjoy the road SEC win, and let's see if we can build on that moving forward! Go GATORS! ,WESGATORS
aka, good OP and good discussions all thru the post. I was more along your line of thinking in your OP regarding TG. I also had to just accept that this was now the UF Coaching hiring model. I also knew, there’d be times that his inexperience was going to be exposed. That has happened & will continue until TG gets more experience and seasoning. With the ever changing and fluid CBB landscape, I don’t know it can tolerate or sustain a coach if their learning curve is too long. Our team has some flaws, most I think we can mitigate with tweaks in the defensive approach & execution AND getting everyone involved in the offense. Our strength is our length, depth and we have 3 players in our starting 5 that are upper class men. I don’t think TG has tapped into that enough….yet. I’ll continue to think he can. My question is, how long might it take.
Analytics are a part of the game and let you get a feel for making decisions. They can influence your decision, just as much as gut feeling -- analyitcs can't take into consideration, the momentum of a game, the crowd, the intensity, and a hot 3 point shooter off the bench etc. use analytics too help inform your coaching, don't make decisions solely on analytics, then you become predictable and robotic. Ball players win games, intensity wins games, proper time outs at the right moments wins games, crucial in bounds plays wins games, hitting open shots wins games, defending the perimeter wins games, hitting free throws wins games. That's the beauty of basketball, a shooter can be 0-10, but all that matters is if he makes that last one to win the game etc.
I agree with you that the value of analytics on their own is overrated by a lot of internet-era fans. Having a hoops background and actually watching what players do on the court will always be the best single method of evaluation available - no statistical analysis can replace that level of situational context. but at the same time, I think you'd agree that no one evaluation method is foolproof by itself. A smart coach should try to use as many data sources as possible to make the most informed decisions, and incorporating advanced statistical analysis brings a lot of value to help supplement the eye test.
Up three with little time left and the other team is inbounding. Simple minded analytics say to foul. Advanced analytics evaluate the opposing personnel and dictate the defense. It should be more nuanced. Of course it doesn't always work but it gives you the best odds.
At this point I'm far more optimistic about the basketball program than the football program. The emergence of an inside game and some 3 pt shooters has been a pleasant upgrade. . Poor free throw shooting is always frustrating. Defensive schemes have been disappointing for sure but it's still early. Also, I will give credit to the responders here. If this had been posted on the football forum, the hate mail for their OP would have been over the top.
I really do not think Golden is the analytics guru he was hyped to be. Where is it being applied? Shot selection? Lineup decisions? In game tactical decisions?
I definitely enjoy and appreciate your work. It’s just fun to use you as the analytics villain. Trust me, I’ll mention you again next time I whine about it.
Alright, here's an area where analytics are paying off. He has our team getting their bad free throw shooting out of the way in games where they aren't needed as much. Check out these numbers: MOV >= 20, FT% = .628 (7 games) MOV >0, <20, FT% = .659 (5 games) MOV <0, FT% = .738 (6 games) We're shooting our best free throw numbers in games where we may need them the most (Kentucky is the outlier here, .621, and truly the only game we can blame the loss on free throw shooting). Even if we shoot 87% against Virginia, we still lose that game. We're 11-3 when we miss 5 or more free throws; we're 8-1 when we miss 9 or more free throws. The obvious key to success here is to keep shooting poorly from the line; the more misses, the merrier! Go GATORS! ,WESGATORS
Analytics have been around forever, but now they are computerized. Around 1980, American University’s basketball coaches had me going to local opponents games to keep shot charts of who was shooting from where + makes and misses. That’s all part of scouting your opponents. Now, you can do it without leaving your office.
