Welcome home, fellow Gator.

The Gator Nation's oldest and most active insider community
Join today!

The first votes have been cast in the election

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by oragator1, Sep 12, 2024.

  1. gatorchamps960608

    gatorchamps960608 GC Hall of Fame

    4,507
    939
    2,463
    Jul 4, 2020
    Matt Bevins, Jr. continues to hang his hat on returned vs. requested while his graphics show the Dems EV total outpacing GOP everyday.

    Coming out of a pandemic and a coup attempt, there is no prior election similar baseline for comparison.

    Regarding the Georgia EV, the voters there are heavily female and/or African-American FWIW.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  2. okeechobee

    okeechobee GC Hall of Fame

    9,339
    1,183
    328
    Sep 11, 2022
    If you were asking me, I think it's implausible that GOP voters all became early voters in one election cycle. There's been a minor shift, but like that data in Georgia shows, only 6% of people who voted on Election Day in 2020 have voted there as of today. That tells me the early vote shift for GOP voters isn't large enough to explain the numbers we are seeing.
     
    • Funny Funny x 1
    • Wish I would have said that Wish I would have said that x 1
  3. okeechobee

    okeechobee GC Hall of Fame

    9,339
    1,183
    328
    Sep 11, 2022
    Because Dems in NC have a slim registration advantage overall and Dems are known to dominate early voting. I don't think Republicans are now all the sudden the "Party of Early Voting". GOP have made some strides, yes, but based on these numbers, she loses NC by 3 or 4 points (at least) in the final count.
     
  4. mrhansduck

    mrhansduck GC Hall of Fame

    4,754
    990
    1,788
    Nov 23, 2021
    Okay, I see your point about early voting a little better now.
     
    • Fistbump/Thanks! Fistbump/Thanks! x 1
  5. AzCatFan

    AzCatFan GC Hall of Fame

    12,050
    1,136
    1,618
    Apr 9, 2007
    Early voting in Arizona has a baseline. But in most states, we're looking at mass early voting for 2020, during the height of the pandemic. Can't use that as a baseline.

    There are also anecdotal evidence of PA door knockers running into voters who are waiting to vote on election day this time. They don't want a count repeat of 2020.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
    • Winner Winner x 1
  6. okeechobee

    okeechobee GC Hall of Fame

    9,339
    1,183
    328
    Sep 11, 2022
    GOP are destroying Dems in Nevada. EV 2 to 1.
     
    • Funny Funny x 2
    • Informative Informative x 1
  7. gatorchamps960608

    gatorchamps960608 GC Hall of Fame

    4,507
    939
    2,463
    Jul 4, 2020
    As of earlier today, Clark County was only 10% of the returns. Orange fat Cinderfella turns back into a pumpkin after all the Clark votes are recorded.
     
    • Optimistic Optimistic x 1
  8. CaptUSMCNole

    CaptUSMCNole Premium Member

    2,979
    179
    343
    May 23, 2007
    NCR
  9. oragator1

    oragator1 Premium Member

    22,885
    5,579
    3,488
    Apr 3, 2007
    Follow up on Nevada.
    This is the kinda of data I geek out over. Sad but totally true.

    The tweet is 100 percent right, no sign of it yet and no guarantee it will come. The votes are out there though, we will see if Nevada’s infamous machine, along with Harris’s alleged ground game come through and delivers them.

     
  10. gator_lawyer

    gator_lawyer VIP Member

    16,837
    5,779
    3,213
    Oct 30, 2017
    I voted yesterday. Straight ticket Dem. Voted against retaining every judge or justice appointed by DeSantis. Voted for retaining all the others. Yes on 3 and 4. No on all the others.
     
    • Winner Winner x 2
    • Fistbump/Thanks! Fistbump/Thanks! x 1
  11. oragator1

    oragator1 Premium Member

    22,885
    5,579
    3,488
    Apr 3, 2007
    And on the flip side, if this doesn’t get better in GA for her, they have no shot there, regardless of what this guy says.

     
  12. okeechobee

    okeechobee GC Hall of Fame

    9,339
    1,183
    328
    Sep 11, 2022
    Wouldn't Harris have deployed her alleged ground game in Nevada by now? If no, then what are they waiting for? Same question for the machine. T-minus 10 days and counting....
     
  13. citygator

    citygator VIP Member

    11,170
    2,507
    3,303
    Apr 3, 2007
    Charlotte
    You guys focused on the timing of when people vote is ignorance to the tenth power. The Democrats lost plenty of states where they won the early vote in 2020 because WHEN you vote doesn’t matter.

    What you need to focus on is the states where you have to request mail ballots and the percent that are being returned. Those states look like normal.

    Pennsylvania:

    IMG_0159-min.jpeg
     
    • Winner Winner x 2
  14. channingcrowderhungry

    channingcrowderhungry Premium Member

    8,868
    1,985
    3,013
    Apr 3, 2007
    Bottom of a pint glass
    Who are the DeSantis judges?
     
  15. GatorJMDZ

    GatorJMDZ gatorjack VIP Member

    24,752
    2,579
    1,868
    Apr 3, 2007
    Robert J. Luck

    Florida Supreme Court

    January 14, 2019 - November 19, 2019

    Barbara Lagoa

    Florida Supreme Court

    January 9, 2019 - December 6, 2019

    John Daniel Couriel

    Florida Supreme Court

    June 1, 2020 - Present

    Renatha Francis

    Florida Supreme Court


    Renatha Francis

    Florida Supreme Court

    September 1, 2022 - Present

    Carlos Muñiz

    Florida Supreme Court

    January 22, 2019 - Present

    Meredith Sasso

    Florida Supreme Court

    May 23, 2023 - Present

    Jamie Rutland Grosshans

    Florida Supreme Court

    September 14, 2020 - Present



    https://ballotpedia.org/Judges_appointed_by_Ron_DeSantis
     
    • Fistbump/Thanks! Fistbump/Thanks! x 1
  16. GatorJMDZ

    GatorJMDZ gatorjack VIP Member

    24,752
    2,579
    1,868
    Apr 3, 2007
    I walked in my absentee ballot to the Supervisor of Elections office, but otherwise voted exactly as you did. I even researched the school board candidates to identify the likely Dems.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  17. gatorchamps960608

    gatorchamps960608 GC Hall of Fame

    4,507
    939
    2,463
    Jul 4, 2020
    I voted against all of Shorty Mussolini's judges too, but won't he just get to replace them with people equally as awful?
     
    • Agree Agree x 2
  18. CaptUSMCNole

    CaptUSMCNole Premium Member

    2,979
    179
    343
    May 23, 2007
    NCR
    You don't think campaigns would prefer to have their voters bank their vote early and know it, to allow them the time and money to focus on the ones that have not voted yet?
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
    • Fistbump/Thanks! Fistbump/Thanks! x 1
  19. okeechobee

    okeechobee GC Hall of Fame

    9,339
    1,183
    328
    Sep 11, 2022
    I think a lot of Dems are having buyer's remorse with Kamala. In a hypothetical 2024 Dem primary, she probably doesn’t make the top 5. Dems wanted Joe out, but for some reason, a lot of Dems (as evidenced by posters here) assumed he would be replaced with a Michelle Obama or a Gavin Newsom type candidate. Kamala was forced upon them and if she had turned out to be a viable candidate, all would have surely been forgiven. But now that they see she’s clearly not up to the task, they’re jaded and staying home this election cycle.

    P.S. terrible news for Dems as it relates to Senate control
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
    • Funny Funny x 1
  20. VAg8r1

    VAg8r1 GC Hall of Fame

    20,702
    1,703
    1,763
    Apr 8, 2007
    Republicans are "destroying" the Dems in Nevada only because they have a small lead while in the past the Democrats have had a significant lead at this point in the cycle. In terms of actual numbers the returns are still very close. Not good news for the Democrats but not nearly as disastrous as you apparently believe.
     
    • Disagree Bacon! Disagree Bacon! x 1