The first votes have been cast in the election

Florida looks to be an unmitigated disaster and a very bad harbinger for Dems in general across the country:

In 2020, Florida totaled just shy of 11,000,000 votes.
So far in 2024, already 5,140,163 have voted between EV and mail.
GOP voters hold a 593,728 vote advantage.

For those of you watching at home, that equates to:
GOP 45.1%
Dems 33.5%
Other 21.3%

When you consider that most of the mail in voting is in (Dems lead slightly there) and GOP are beating Dems almost 2 to 1 in person voting, yikes. Trump is looking at a possible 20+ point win in Florida.

 

So you think that a sizable portion of early voting Republicans in NV, AZ, GA. and NC are crossing over to vote for Harris? You do not think Democrats are having a turnout issue in those states?

 

The most likely explanation for the increased early voting by Republicans is that Trump strongly discouraged early voting in 2020 and even though he may not have personally embraced the practice he and the Republican Party are now encouraging their supporters to vote early and I do think a number of registered Republicans primarily women are voting for Harris. Not remotely close to a majority my guess is that it's probably in the 10% to 20% range, enough to make a difference in a close election. I would add that in most if not all of those states turnout by women is greater than turnout by male voters.
Fact Check Team: Early voting underway. Who's turned out so far?

 

The Baghdad Bobbing here on EV is better than the original Baghdad Bob himself.

 

As predicted, as of today, the GOP are now adding more mail in votes than Dems in PA, despite having a 2-to-1 disadvantage in mail in ballots sent out:

 

Miami-Dade early in person voting, as of this morning:

GOP 143,853
Dems 88,020

 

In Georgia, >62% of total voters who voted in 2020 have already voted.
Dekalb and Clayton counties, both high population counties that went >80% to Biden in 2020 have much a lower turnout as of this morning than the state average turnout. The higher population Trump counties are well above state average turnout. We're coming down to the wire on this thing and Trump has huge turnout advantages across the state. Same story in NC, but GA looks more brutal for Harris than NC and that's saying a lot.

 

Mr. Matt Bevins Victory Party continues to ignore the NPAs who are likely to break to Harris 70/30.

Also, Kansas which Trump won by 20% is polling at Trump +5% this time around. If that's true and hit holds in other places, look out.

 

In Arizona, the Mayor of Mesa continues on the Harris campaign trail, even though Giles is a Republican. Will probably kill his own political career, but he seems to be having an effect. Two polls put the crossover vote of Rs voting Harris at 12% - 13% in the state, with only about 2% of Ds not voting Harris.

There have also already been 1.5 million votes cast in Arizona. More R votes than D, but also a large number of I votes. If the crossover vote is +10% in Harris' favor, and the I vote also breaks her way, then 2024 Arizona will be a mirror of 2020, with a close election, separated by less than 15k votes.

Personally, I think the crossover vote for Harris might even be higher. Four years ago, it was a silent crossover vote for Biden. There were no Mayor Giles' out there being openly vocal in support for Biden.

 

I'm just not sure the math with the polling data we've seen. In polling Trump is holding on to about 95% of Republicans and Harris is holding on to the same number of Democrats. I could see the 10% number of women crossing over for Harris and that would get you to that 95%. I just do not see it with up to 20%.

 

Which polls where those?

 

From the first link about Mesa Mayor Giles:

Arizona is an unusually receptive audience for anti-Trump advocacy aimed at Republicans. Nearly 13 percent of Arizona Republicans, or 185,900 voters, have said they will not be voting for Trump, according to recent polling by Arizona Family/HighGround, a conservative political consultancy (though a new HighGround poll forecasts Trump narrowly winning the state.) A recent Wall Street Journal poll found that Harris has the support of 96 percent of Democrats in the state, but that Trump has the support of only 88 percent of Republicans. “The game for Democrats is to win enough old McCain Republicans,” Michael Bocian, a Democratic pollster who worked on the survey, told the Journal. “There’s more crossover vote in this state than anywhere else.”​

 

FYI, the Az Family/HighGround poll showed Harris only holding on to 86.9% of Democrats, where Trump is holding on to 88.8% of Republicans. This is the write up on the results:

“The attacks on Harris have taken their toll, making this race an absolute tossup. It’s clear that Trump is trending in these final two weeks – earning back some GOP support and even making headway among some Democrats,” said Paul Bentz, Senior Vice President – Research and Strategy at HighGround Inc. “Based on initial early voting returns, Republican voters are enthused and returning their ballots at a much higher number than Democratic counterparts. Right now, we are not seeing the same Democratic enthusiasm that we saw two or four years ago. The hope for Harris likely lies in younger Democratic voters and unaffiliated voters who are currently lagging in their ballot returns.”

We are six and half days away from election day and the window to make up the early vote totals is closing. I'll be looking to see if Democratic early voting starts picking up this week.

 

I don't know AZ politics and not sure if I'm reading these correctly, but the Real Clear Polling Average appears to show Gallego beating Lake by 6.3% and Trump beating Harris by 1.3%? Does it make sense to you that Arizona voters would split their results that way?

2024 Arizona Senate - Lake vs. Gallego | RealClearPolling

2024 Arizona: Trump vs. Harris | RealClearPolling

 

Arizona is a lost cause for Harris. The current turnout reflects the 6% advantage GOP have in voter registration statewide. In 2020, GOP only had a 3% voter registration advantage.

 

Yes, because Lake is a weak candidate.

 

No. It makes no sense, unless you chalk it up to misogyny. Four years ago, Kelly did about 1.8 points better than Biden. Hard to explain a 7+ point gap today.

I think it has to do with the quiet support many Republicans have for D's against MAGA candidates. Again, there was a large, very quiet crossover four years ago. This year, lead by the Mesa Mayor, this movement is a lot louder.

I'd also like to point out, the Trafalgar poll this time four years ago had Trump +3. The poll this year only has Trump +2. In both polls, Trump had 48% of the vote.

 

From what I can tell, Lake got about the same (but very slightly higher) percentage of the statewide vote in 2022 (49.65%) than Trump got in 2020 (49.06%).

2022 Arizona gubernatorial election - Wikipedia

2020 United States presidential election in Arizona - Wikipedia

 

Then, if true, it’s gonna be hilarious, if not glorious, when Lake cries about the corrupt and cheating vote in Arizona, her only platform.

 

The R's put out some truly turrible(Barkley reference) trump backed candidates that will get killed next week, Lake and NC Gov being 2 that are the worst.