The election betting thread

Did you happen to notice whom I was responding to with my last post? I expect more excuses from @danmanne65 as to why he won't take me up on the same bet, but thanks for confirming it again for him and anyone else who'd like to take me up on the THFSG one-year ban wager.

 

In that case, if u win I expect some pics for my contribution towards a better lens.

 

Will you take a $100,000 bet on your even money proposition?

How high will you really go?

When does your offer expire?

 

Not that I want to slow you down here, but I assume you're located where your screen name indicates. How can you look at early in person voting numbers from Miami-Dade as of this morning and feel good about your bet?

GOP 143,853
Dems 88,020

 

I don’t want voting to be as nonchalant as this take. But I understand why you are not concerned about abuse. Especially if you can be lazy…

 

I dont think he's betting on Harris winning Florida lol

 

I don’t think there should be mail in or early voting. I have held this view for decades. Absentee for those that can prove they will not be able to be at the polls on the Election Day is the one reason to not vote in person at the polls. And with an ID

 

So vote on Election Day. Nobody will begrudge you for that.

Early voting makes voting available for everyone. There’s no reason to make voting difficult. And, bluntly, for every argument you have that early voting creates an environment for corruption. I can give you the counterpoint as to why single-day voting has an even greater potential for corruption (and can cite to you history showing it). And we’ve had that discussion before.

 

The early voting numbers coming in are much more viable to look at now than they were a week ago. Most states are well above 50% of their total 2020 turnout, so we can glean quite a bit from this data. And it is this data that is driving prediction markets higher and higher for Trump by the day. The numbers in PA look so bad that Bob Casey has embraced Trump, while his party calls Trump a fascist.

I'm only pointing this out because the polling numbers really haven't moved much in the last few days. But the early voting data are undeniable with the sample size now being much larger. If you really think Harris is going to win, you can find your way onto Polymarket or another site and make a lot of money right now. You would be betting on a ginormous turnaround in EV data in the next few days if you bet on a Harris win now and so your return is going to be far less if you wait and you're right. Without a massive turnaround, she's done.

 

go get em

Robinhood rolls out contracts to bet on US presidential election | Reuters

 

I'll spring for the lens if I can get the originals. wouldn't want an artist to do without.

Lensrentals.com - Rent Lenses and Cameras from Canon, Nikon, Olympus, Sony, Leica, and more

 

I'm not saying Florida was ever in doubt to go Trump. It's the margin of victory I'm looking at because, it has heavy implications for how Trump will do in other states and heavy implications in the senate race. Trump and Scott are both safe, always have been, but it's the margins at which they look to be ripe for that I was referring to.

At this point, Trump is trending towards close to a 20 point win in Florida. That's assuming NPAs and others split 50/50 between the two. If Trump wins Florida by anywhere near 20 points (and we know that is possible after DeSantis's win in 2022), that means it's going to be an early night next Tuesday. I'm seeing these same numbers in every swing state. GOP are turning out higher. We still have a week to go, but it's hard for me to believe Dems, the party known for voting early (and often) are sitting on their hands waiting until the last week to vote.

 

I wonder if they are seeing the same numbers. feels like he has given up on winning and is going more hate and scorched earth

 

Are you trying to establish the falsehood that Democrats commit voting fraud in greater numbers? Especially through mail-in voting?

Aren't you above promoting outright lies?*




* We're past the point in time where Trumpists get to tell or promote outright lies, and have those lies become part of the public narrative. We're 8 years late, but lies and dishonesty must be called out.