The election betting thread

that's when ballots trumped votes. too many eyes this go around.

 

Sent you my Venmo info. Please send over $100 when you can. Thanks

 

Thank you for being honorable and paying up. Appreciate it.

 

One lesson you will take from this is to not listen to your so called credible source. See you in a year.

 

I wonder if his credible source was the hilarious Iowa poll? If so that was a disaster to bet a lot of money on...

 

She was supposedly a top notch pollster but I think polls have been proven they can’t figure out Trump voters. That’s a given

 

Glad I'm not a betting man. This feels terrible enough without having money on it. Respect to you for following through. Some folks don't.

 

Doesnt have to make sense to you. It ain't your vote.

 

Tilly, if you wanted to join that discussion, you should have done so four or five days ago. This ain't the morning for it.

 

Yeah, but to be that off isn't just an outlier, it should make that pollster reexamine their whole process.

 

Lol. I was in the discussion. Heck i got tagged in by 4 different people. YOU included :

 

BTW ..is it too late to be the middle guy handling the money and collecting the fee?

 

It’s interesting in that her polling historically has been extremely reliable. I don’t think she changed her process or did anything nefarious, I just think she was playing with fire. She had always just reached out to whoever would answer and didn’t try to control for demographics. At some point that was bound to bite her in the ass.

 

Scott Alexander of Astral Codex Ten offers a very thoughtful analysis on prediction markets, including their success and the possible biasing from the polymarket whale.

Congrats To Polymarket, But I Still Think They Were Mispriced

 

On the Friday before the election Iowa pollster Ann Selzer was boasting she was going to drop a bomb on the Trump campaign. Some of Selzer's own people were angered by her behavior and at least one of them called Rich Baris @Peoples_Pundit to let him know what was going on. On Saturday Baris called RCP to tell them Selzer was dropping a BS poll. People ran with the phony poll which allowed some of us to put a little more money on Trump as he fell to 50% on Kalshi. Selzer is way overrated as a pollster. The media reported she had never been off by more than 5% in her final poll (I think) but that was bogus. She was a lot farther off in 2004 when she predicted John Kerry.would take the state (if memory serves). Selzer is a loser and her credibility is gone