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Terrible News -- the November Job's report was very strong

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by WarDamnGator, Dec 2, 2022.

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  1. Dec 4, 2022 #41
    citygator

    citygator VIP Member

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    Look at the market before you simply compare them. Current market prices are driven by a woefully under supply of new homes. Not the problem in mid 2000’s.
     
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  2. Dec 4, 2022 #42
    citygator

    citygator VIP Member

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    Sure that’s what happened.

    Word of the Year 2022
    [​IMG]

    In the first 3 minutes Trump says stay at home.

     
    Last edited: Dec 4, 2022
  3. Dec 5, 2022 #43
    dave_the_thinker

    dave_the_thinker VIP Member

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    Noone reasonable takes issue with the initial quarantine weeks after the pandemic blew up. (your video)

    The issue was May, June, July, then into the school year, and right into November there was pressure to lock down the country.

    It's over, and the press is preaching for us to go on with our lives and learn to live with covid now. (while employed to boot)

    I'll take it.

    (Best answer I have, forgive me if I misunderstood your response. All I had to go on was a single word you tossed at me and a pasted in dictionary definition.)
     
  4. Dec 5, 2022 #44
    BLING

    BLING GC Hall of Fame

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    May was only 2 months in, when there was perhaps still some optimism (or delusion in retrospect) about actually containing the virus completely - rather than merely mitigating it with masks and distancing and such.

    It’s understandable why schools didn’t know what to do even that first fall. It’s not like they were equipped. It’s not like it was all figured out, the worst period of the pandemic (nationally) was arguably that December-Jan period almost a full year later (the “Delta” wave) which I think caused a lot of areas to relapse into lockdown mode.
     
  5. Dec 5, 2022 #45
    chemgator

    chemgator GC Hall of Fame

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    Job losses are a trailing indicator of a recession, not a leading indicator. Companies want to see how bad the recession is (and get an idea of how long it will be) before they decide how many to lay off. Sales dropping off (including between companies) is more of a leading indicator.
     
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  6. Dec 5, 2022 #46
    WarDamnGator

    WarDamnGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Actually, new jobless claims is pretty much universally considered a leading indicator.

    The initial jobless claims have proven to be a successful leading indicator that has predicted not only the increases in the US unemployment rate during previous downturns, but also the business cycle turning points. In 2008, the most recent example, the jobless claims had started to climb rapidly since early-May, while the unemployment rate remained relatively flat until the last quarter of the year when it started to increase gradually. Due to its strong predictive power the initial jobless claims indicator is one of the key components of the US CEIC Leading Indicator, a CEIC proprietary dataset aimed to anticipate the business cycle turning points.

    Reading the US Jobless Claims Data Right

    Jobless claims are an important leading indicator of the state of the employment situation and the health of the economy.

    Jobless Claims Definition

    The count of U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance is a leading economic indicator because it is an indication of emerging labor market conditions in the country.

    https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
     
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  7. Dec 5, 2022 #47
    WarDamnGator

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    Here's a FRED chart.... you can see jobless claims always bottoms and reverses before the recession (gray vertical lines) starts...

    upload_2022-12-5_19-2-54.png

    Edit... I only included through 2020 in the chart because the 2020 spike was so off the charts it made the rest of the data almost unreadable.
     
  8. Dec 5, 2022 #48
    citygator

    citygator VIP Member

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    Show me on this graph when we should have opened everything up which qualifies as a non-partisan decision where the media should have been behind it.

    77BDD1F1-DD0C-40FA-AC10-3568D3C4F979.jpeg
     
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