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Taiwan Elects Separatist President

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by uftaipan, Jan 13, 2024.

  1. demosthenes

    demosthenes Premium Member

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    “Feint” HFS your line of thinking is an amazing study in willful ignorance. Russia was logistically thwarted in its plans to take Kyiv. Recharacterizing Russia’s goals after-the-fact does a disservice to any kind of intelligent discussion. You evidently pick and choose what you want to believe, willingly casting aside US intelligence (which was proven right about Russia’s aims down to the very week they start the offensive) and even a Russian in power stating that Ukraine was just a stepping stone.
     
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  2. okeechobee

    okeechobee GC Hall of Fame

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    Willful ignorance is thinking that Moscow believed they'd be allowed to occupy all of Ukraine with 150,000 troops, while knowing full well NATO was arming Ukraine and had a vested interest there. Had this been Azerbaijan they were invading, for example, okay, I might buy it. But the Russians aren't idiots. This has always been a war with the West. The Russians were going to do what they had to do to end up exactly where we are right now. Otherwise, why not just leave and end the war? Clearly, they've lost the objective if we believe your version. What's the rationale for staying in if this does nothing for Russia?
     
  3. uftaipan

    uftaipan GC Hall of Fame

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    Asked and answered in this thread as well as the one about Ukraine.

    Back to China and Taiwan.
     
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  4. danmanne65

    danmanne65 GC Hall of Fame

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    And then there were two ignored.
     
  5. okeechobee

    okeechobee GC Hall of Fame

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    Yeah, with China, I'd say it's doubly important to place ourselves in their shoes to understand what their true motives are and react accordingly. Which is the whole point of the Russian exercise. You keep wanting to see something that isn't there. I don't care what your field intelligence told you. It doesn't make any sense. We won't be able to afford those kinds of mistakes with China.
     
  6. uftaipan

    uftaipan GC Hall of Fame

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    I’m not quite sure where this is going or what you mean by much of that.

    We understand what China wants quite well. They have told us many times in no uncertain terms. They want what they view as national reunification. And that’s fine. We don’t begrudge them that so long as it’s done peacefully. The question is, will China run out of patience and try to use force? Ten years ago, I would have said probably not. Now I am less sure given how much Xi has invested in preparing his nation materially and psychologically for war. Are they willing to risk war with the U.S. over Taiwan? Again, I don’t know, but it looks increasingly likely. I hope not, but hope is not a strategy.

    “I keep wanting to see what isn’t there” I’m not sure what you mean by that. Do you mean that China has no intention to invade Taiwan? Do you mean China has no capability to invade Taiwan? Do you mean China, like Russia, is a paper Tiger, that we should not really worry about in the event of war?

    And which part of it “does not make any sense?” Chinese intentions, capabilities, or relative military power to ours?
     
  7. demosthenes

    demosthenes Premium Member

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    Stay tuned for next week’s all new episode of The Ultracrepidarian where Okee tells us all how we didn’t actually go to the moon and if we had we did it in the worst possible way.
     
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  8. swimGator

    swimGator VIP Member

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    This video pretty much does a great job summarizing our current approach to containing China and preparing for war in the INDOPACOM theatre.

    I just hope the flag doesn't go up while I am stationed in Okinawa.
     
  9. okeechobee

    okeechobee GC Hall of Fame

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    I'm not nearly as well-versed on China/Taiwan. I have a pretty good handle on Ukraine/Russia. I truly hope you're not imagining things with China, but I wouldn't purport to know if you are, much less explain to you why you're wrong. What I was referring to is your indifference towards Western interference in Kyiv and its impact on the events which unfolded afterwards. This all spawned from your comments about U.S. involvement in other regions.

    What we can't do with China, is ignore the impact of our pre-involvement in the region. Why did Xi decide to prepare the country for war? What threat are they perceiving? Those are the questions we should be asking. If we aren't stoking the flames, then we have less to worry about. So you tell me, how involved has the U.S. in been in Taiwanese politics over the past 10 to 20 years? Are we active on the ground stirring unrest? Are we interfering with their elections? Is there corruption within the Taiwanese government?

    China, historically, has mostly kept to themselves. Russia, historically, has been brutalized by invasions. So it stands to reason they would be a little paranoid. China? Not so much. But I'm not sold Xi is looking to conquer east Asia. Nor should we take any preemptive action could be viewed as a provocation. Also, we should tell Netanyahu to stop killing 500 babies to capture 1 Hamas.
     
  10. tampagtr

    tampagtr VIP Member

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    The world is so destined for bad things because of how stupid Americans are

     
  11. cocodrilo

    cocodrilo GC Hall of Fame

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    Taiwan makes Xi tie one on.
     
  12. uftaipan

    uftaipan GC Hall of Fame

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    I watched the interview, and I didn’t get the impression he was saying what that post suggests. You know I have no problem taking a giant dump on Trump (unless *groans* he somehow gets elected; then I’ll have to shut up again), but what I got out of that was him pointing out how dangerous it would be for China to control that market by force (true) and also pointing out that it’s our fault we let that critical industry get away from us and resettle in such a dangerous region (also true). I certainly didn’t get the idea he was saying, “Screw Taiwan for taking our chip industry. Let China punish them.” Even the IR realists are saying it would be bad for the U.S. if China grabs Taiwan. The only real difference between them and the liberal internationalists on this issue is that the latter doesn’t care so long as China reunifies through peaceful means while the former says we can’t allow peaceful reunification either (though, I don’t see how we could stop it).
     
  13. tampagtr

    tampagtr VIP Member

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    I just listened to the expert and I think the tweeted fair reading, especially in combination with his prior statements about Japan and South Korea during his first term and his general view on trade.

    I think there is very serious doubt as to whether he even wants to defend Taiwan. I do agree that we should not stop that if it was a desire for peaceful reunification. To do otherwise with defeat our purposes.

    And I certainly stand by the proposition that Americans are very very stupid people if he is going to be elected
     
  14. uftaipan

    uftaipan GC Hall of Fame

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    While the decision to intervene would effectively be up to him under the TRA, he would have a very difficult time deciding not to (assuming Taiwan can and does resist; if they don’t, the whole point is moot regardless of who’s in the White House). The issue is structural, and the hue and cry from both parties for different reasons would be awfully difficult to ignore. When Russia invaded Ukraine, there were a few things that Biden clearly didn’t want to do but had to do anyway, such as cutting off Russian oil purchases, due to our allies and both parties forcing his hand. But as I’ve stated earlier, I don’t worry about Trump not intervening over Taiwan. I worry about him failing to listen to military advice and being overly aggressive (defeating China would take time and discipline; it won’t be Desert Storm) and alienating allies we would need to win in the long run. In the interview I saw, Trump did what I expect any President or candidate to do with that same question: refuse to give a direct answer but speak to some of our national interests in the region. Now, of course, the interests he spoke to were the ones that appeal to realists: market concerns, defense industry requirements, and containing an increasingly martial and expansionist China. I think the liberal internationalist interests are also worth mentioning for any President: preserving the rules-based international order, refusing to allow the normalization of conquest, and protecting weak democracies from being gobbled up by authoritarian hegemons.

    And as you know, I can’t disagree with your last statement. I’m beside myself that it looks increasingly likely he is going to win the nomination. A less loyal military officer might suggest that the best a Republican can hope for would be for Trump to select a moderate as Vice President and then for nature to mercifully and painlessly take its course soon. But as a military officer, loyal to the Constitution and rule of law, I would personally never express such a hope.
     
    Last edited: Jan 21, 2024
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  15. exiledgator

    exiledgator Gruntled

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    I could definitely see Trump leveraging Chinese aggression into a broader conflict. It would create the environment to proclaim the need for an Emperor. And he knows just the guy.