Taiwan Elects Separatist President

Some of our military top brass are concerned that we’re not fit to square off against China’s glorified coast guard …

https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2023/12/05/the_navy_dead_in_the_water_996793.html

 

If that happens, even without a US military response, the US economy gets wrecked and the potential for millions to lose their jobs. Just in the semiconductor industry, in Taiwan are TSMC and WIN. The world's largest Si Foundry and the world's largest GaAs Foundry. If an invasion leads to disruptions in economic activity in Taiwan, even temporarily, everything from Apple and Google, military contractors like Lockheed and Raytheon, to GM/Ford, to GE Medical Systems to practically every open market product sold in places from Walmart to Best Buy are impacted. Even companies like Samsung who make their own chips outside China, source numerous electronic components from China and Taiwan to manufacture, as well as from TSMC and WIN.

Not to mention, the less talked about consequence, but if China seizes Taiwan and "Nationalizes" TSMC and WIN, the treasure trove of IP and chip designs would jump forward 20+ years over night and pretty much leave the entire world reliant on China

 

That was the reasoning behind the Administration’s strategic initiative on chips. But that will take years. Chinas economy would also suffer. Hopefully that will deter. To paraphrase Sting, I hope the Chinese love their economy too.

So many factors

 

I would ask you, what war do we not get involved in? I do not think we can win but I also don't think China can win. Taiwan could punish some of China's major cities with long-range missiles. If true, and China's defense system could not stop those missiles then I doubt China would be willing to take that risk today. I think Taiwan and its allies are a big challenge for a country that has zero experience at war.

Xi has been telling us China is going to take Taiwan. Fortunately for Taiwan, they elected the right person to hold off Xi as long as possible. You elect a China flunky and it might happen a lot sooner. Kill them from within. Sound familiar.

 

I do not think the average person understands how long a process that is going to be. We can build fabs in the US, but substrates, SMDs, mold compound, etc....everything to goes into packaging a chip is almost exclusively made in China. Worse, the mask-shops who make multi-$million mask sets to run photolithography are almost all exclusively made in China. I mean, I work for a company that is working with the US government to bring final test and assembly out of China. Think about that, we might fab our chips for things like government spy satellites or US missile systems, but still pay money to ship them to places in China for final assembly and test.

We are more than a decade away from reasonable separation, and that $65Billion that the Republicans balked at will literally build just 3 US fabs and nothing else. The amount of investment needed is staggering....and I agree with Republicans to an extent that the tax payer should not be bailing out these companies, but if we want electronics, a military and jobs, there has to be a partnership to defray costs. It sucks, but it must be done.

 

Your last two sentences are outstanding!!

 

Had to start sometime, and there is some hope it can be accelerated. Hoping

 

We strongly disagree on whether the US has been foregoing military deterrence in either theatre. QUAD, TPP and pre-existing NATO strengthening which the Russians falsely claimed was their justification. It takes military deterrence but not only military deterrence.

Edited to add. Not every action by an adversary could have reasonably been prevented by something we did or did not do. Not every foreign development is the result of US policy failure. Sometimes countries do things for their own reasons and ways we cannot hope to control or deter.

 

The U.S. would be defeated by Russia, China and probably Iran in direct conflict.

 

Turns out the folks at the Pentagon were the cooler heads. They knew that intervention would have been disastrous.

 

With in-laws in Taiwan (MIL, FIL, BIL, SIL) it's kinda sad to read people glibly discuss a Chinese invasion. I don't fault y'all for it, but I think about one poster mentioned not wanting to see unnecessary death and suffering. A Chinese invasion would cause a great amount of stress/agony for our family.

 

I understand your thinking here and agree with its historical precedents, however I don't share your optimism. I don't think anything short of a continental invasion would get the extremes to fall in line. Even then I have my doubts.

I like to consider myself optimistic, but it's hard to imagine universal support.

 

MSN

I obviously still have problems posting links but the one above is an article talking about the corruption in the Chinese military. Their rockets have been drained of fuel and refilled with water.