More outstanding analysis from Bernhard on his highly influential blog, Moon of Alabama (@MoonofA on X): Syria - Winners And Losers Or Both ... Israel is for now the big winner in Syria. But with restless Jihadists now right on its border it remains to be seen for how long that will hold. The U.S. is bombing the central desert of Syria. It claims to strike ISIS but the real target is any local (Arab) resistance which could prevent a connection between the U.S. controlled east of Syria with the Israel controlled south-west. There may well be plans to further build this connection into an Eretz Israel, a Zionist controlled state "from the river to the sea". https://www.moonofalabama.org/
That's where I stand. It's hard to be either pleased or upset when it seems like two sides of the same coin with regards to Israel and stability in the ME.
The next few weeks should tell us if these groups are willing to work with each other to form a government or not. If they are, then great--the U.S. can help them. If not, then they might kill each other off in a final battle for supremacy, which also works in the favor of civilization. The West will then be able to clean up the mess and bring a democratic form of government to Syria. Unless Trump gets involved--he might try to take ownership of Syria and trade it for Greenland.
Uh, no. Democrat or Republican, I’m not falling for that again. Be happy to consider foreign aid with rewards for doing things right and sanctions for doing things wrong. That’s where it ends.
Hoping for the best although the chances are that Syria could end up like Libya, Iraq, Yemen or Sudan all of which ended up in chaos after a despot was overthrown.
Quote in the WSJ from a fruit vendor in Damascus. His oxymoron is probably spot on. “It all feels like a nightmare, yet you remind yourself it is also a dream—now that Assad is gone,” he said.
That is moronic. ISIS was an offshoot of Al-Qaeda in Iraq, which was in constant battles with US forces. America backed the FSA (which was a weak fighting force) in Syria. America also directly fought and wiped out ISIS (both Obama then mostly Trump, but Trump takes all the credit). Absolutely nobody would say ISIS is an American backed rebel force except the Kremlin or Supreme Leader. You could say America’s invasion of Iraq created ISIS, but “backed” is the wrong word.
I'd say we're officially out of the "spreading democracy" business. More like protecting it for those who value it and are willing to fight for it and the rest dealt with in a purely transactional basis. At least in a perfect world.
Well, you’d like to think so, but people, especially Americans, have shorter memories than we would like. As I said earlier, I have no problem using our economic power to incentivize certain behaviors and deter other behaviors, but on the whole we need to stay out of other countries’ internal matters as a rule. Now once countries cross the literal and figurative line of invading their neighbors, yeah, I think that’s the world’s business, and we are a significant part of the world. Like yourself, I am biased toward protecting democracies, but that is not the overriding principle here. Kuwait was not a democracy and still deserved the world’s protection. India is a democracy, but if they were to invade Bangladesh, citing historic control of the territory, I would have a problem with that, too.
To add to your strong points, the group we support most strongly in Eastern Syria is majority Kurdish. The Kurds are as anti-ISIS as a group gets, even more so than the Shia extremist groups.
A good question is what will happen with our support of the Kurds after Trump takes office considering his affinity for Erdogan and Erdogan's animosity towards the Kurds. Keep in mind the when Trump was in office the first time he sold out the Syrian Kurds. From 2019. Trump defends decision to abandon Kurdish allies in Syria Also keep in mind that the Kurds are providing security for a large facility in Northeastern Syria in which thousands of ISIS prisoners are being held. If the Kurds are weakened there is the real possibility of a prison break in which the imprisoned ISIS fighters could released. ISIS tried and fortunately failed to break out the prisoners held there in 2022. There is a good chance that they will try again. From 2022 US-backed Kurdish forces recapture Syrian prison days after ISIS attack
Not to turn this into a Trump thread b/c what is happening in Syria is an extremely significant historical event regardless of anyone’s politics or thoughts, but… We know exactly what Trump will do. He doesn’t have Kurdish donors, a son-in-law that is a Kurd and is a narcissist that feels entitled to what the Kurd’s provided him when “he” ousted ISIS. He won’t offer any assistance to the Kurds unless it is something like destroying ISIS (which Fox News told Trump “they bad” daily) He has already shown what he thinks of the Kurds.
Just a guess considering that Trump is extremely transactional he probably sold out the Kurds in 2019 after Erdogan threatened a total ban on the Trump organization doing any business in Turkey. Interestingly Trump had originally threatened to impose sanctions on Turkey if the Turks attacked Kurds in Northern Syria. After he had a phone conversation with Erdogan he did a complete 180. My guess is that the Turkish President threatened Trump with "sanctions" against Trump business interests in Turkey if the Donald didn't see things Erdogan's way. We need the real story of why Trump sold out the Kurds
