So, no evidence to support something you just “conjured up”. Really, you have absolutely how the cut spend on Ukraine vs Russia will have on future military budgets; no one knows, it’s all just a SWAG. Now, we can reasonably project the spend thus far will cost the US 3+ billion/year at current treasury rates. So, as long as rates stay at the current level and until the public debt is reduced to the pre-Ukraine vs Russia level, the US will be borrowing another $3+ billion/year just to pay interest on the borrowings required to fund Ukraine. And this will continue to increase as the spend on Ukraine vs Russia continues. I don’t know if supporting Ukraine at current or higher levels is a good or bad investment, I just know it’s costing the US with no guarantee that future US military spending needs will benefit (ie will be lower) from it.
It is a certainty that military spending will go up even though it’s likely that our need to prep for a two front war will be diminished. You take the opportunity to diminish your enemy at a relative pittance each and every time.
How much of our defense budget is based on countering Russia? We may pivot to China and there may be little savings but most of the stuff we have sent has been stored in warehouses. Out with the old in with the new. Your math presumes that we will be replacing all of the stuff we had in storage. If we do it will be with 20 years newer stuff which will be better and battle tested. You made a stupid point and you keep on digging.