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Shhh... Recession forgot to tell retailers it is here...

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by citygator, Aug 16, 2022.

  1. danmanne65

    danmanne65 GC Hall of Fame

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    You see that in the refining margins. Oil prices have been relatively flat and historically prices would be about 2.80 in Florida. The record profits the oil companies are making now is based on refinery margins. The refinery margins are roughly 20 dollars a barrel higher than historically.
     
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  2. docspor

    docspor GC Hall of Fame

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    that's super silly. what does units even mean for a company that sells or manufacturers 100s if not 1000s of diff goods? Just simply adj sales or whatever nominal amt for inflation. This is done all the time.

    Inflation adjustment.

    can you imagine Amazon reporting units sold?
     
    Last edited: May 18, 2023
  3. gatorpa

    gatorpa GC Hall of Fame

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    If you’re looking down the road to predict demand for items you better hope people make more money to still buy the extra crap as the stuff they really need eats into their budgets.

    Doesn’t affect me because yeah I got into UF and have done well, but many people don’t have the ability to continuously absorb cost increases.
    Rent/housing
    Food
    Energy
    Cost of borrowing money (cars, houses).
    Pretty much anything you buy has gone up quite a bit in the last few years.

    Sorry you can’t see past your situation to understand the macro, plenty of experts are talking about it.

    Really shocking
     
  4. gatorpa

    gatorpa GC Hall of Fame

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    You better track units sold, how else do you know what to order.
    Target got hammered awhile back because the did a poor job of estimating future demand for electronics. Then were overstocked on inventory and had to have big sales to clear it out.
    Every big company is tracking what sells and doesn’t. They may not report it but they damn sure track it. To suggest otherwise is silly.
     
  5. docspor

    docspor GC Hall of Fame

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    that is done for internal reasons. it makes no sense for financial reporting reasons.
     
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  6. gatorpa

    gatorpa GC Hall of Fame

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    You just supported part of my assertion. If the price is too high it can affect the number of units sold…. Why?
    People may not be able to afford it.
     
  7. docspor

    docspor GC Hall of Fame

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    budget constraints. It would rilly help you make your pts IMO, if you understood the diff between changes in demand & movements along a demand curve. Econ seems to be 1 of those subjects where peeps think they just magically know what the F they are talking about. I find it demeaning....& sad.
     
    Last edited: May 18, 2023
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  8. citygator

    citygator VIP Member

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    We were talking economic growth. Somehow you think prices don’t factor as growth. They do. That’s why we track real wages and inflation adjusted metrics. Not sure what unit forecasting has to do with a growing economy.

    Tell me how real wages compare to 2019…I’ll give you a hint… they are up. The bottom have always been broke, that’s how our system is set up. I’m not a fan. However they are no worse off now than in 2019. Why don’t you understand data?

    I’ve shown you the data many times.

    IMG_4047.jpeg
     
  9. BLING

    BLING GC Hall of Fame

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    Some important economic numbers do come out as “units”. You can track things like oil industry volumes, auto sales, housing data (resale contracts, construction starts, new home sales etc).

    These can be meaningful items to look at to see if we are losing unit volume. Should we care about Chipotle’s unit volume of burritos sold? Eh…
     
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  10. demosthenes

    demosthenes Premium Member

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    Yes, we’ve seen similar from Spain and Korea with pacific routes being cheaper.
     
  11. gatorpa

    gatorpa GC Hall of Fame

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    You may have posted that graph before but I’ve never seen it.

    You may have me confused with others you debate here about how everything is rosy all over.
     
  12. gatorpa

    gatorpa GC Hall of Fame

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    Kinda like when the internet doctors all weigh in like I’ve seen here for 3+ years. ;)
     
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  13. gatorpa

    gatorpa GC Hall of Fame

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    Agree, so why do they do it for internal reasons if it’s a meaningless metric?

    Don’t companies generally give forward looking expectations?

    I guess I’ve been watching too much CNBC, it seems to a large part of what they are talking about when they are trying to predict a slow down.
     
  14. citygator

    citygator VIP Member

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    Well then my mistake. But what about the data?
     
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  15. danmanne65

    danmanne65 GC Hall of Fame

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    It’s not meaningless to a company. It is virtually meaningless to the economy as a whole.
     
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  16. 96Gatorcise

    96Gatorcise Hurricane Hunter

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    Last edited: May 19, 2023
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  17. citygator

    citygator VIP Member

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  18. Tjgators

    Tjgators Premium Member

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    It's at an all-time high because people can't pay their bills. All you have to do is go to the grocery store. Every item costs more except Tito's. Electric bills are outrageous. Gas is still high. The middle class is feeling the pinch and low wage earners are struggling.

    https://www.cnbc.com/select/us-credit-card-debt-hits-all-time-high/

    Food prices are rising at the highest rate in decades. Here's where that money goes.
     
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  19. G8tas

    G8tas GC Hall of Fame

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    There is a reason that the price of Tito's has not gone up. Tito's is trash and no one wants it LOL
     
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  20. Orange_and_Bluke

    Orange_and_Bluke Premium Member

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    I prefer ketel.
    But Tito’s will do.
     
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