Shhh... Recession forgot to tell retailers it is here...

Do you realize that you’re pithily parroting back my original question to me? Did sales increase or decrease? Guess that depends on how you look at it. Is it better for the economy if one person buys a $2m home or 8 people each buy a $250,000 home? The result is $2m of consumption either way. Which creates more jobs for similar throughput?

 

I wasn’t debating anything. You kept asking me questions and I kept answering them.

And since consumption is part of overall gdp I would say it is reflective of the health of our economy.

4 Critical Components of America's Economic Growth

 

Units reflect demand.

Less units sold less demand.
Wether prices is a fact in decreased demand is part of the discussion.
For things like staples and non-discretionary items it may well mean people have less money to buy these things which isn’t a great sign.

 

Cognitive dissonance.

 

So when prices on goods and services double in the next couple of years, we'll be really killin it!

 

Home Depot cuts forecasts, signals weakness ahead for big US retailers

Target Earnings Squeezed as Shoppers Stick to Basics

Now we are starting to see companies reporting sales comparable without the benefit of massive inflation to assist. Target also reported $500 million in theft.

Target Set to Lose an Estimated $500M, Largely Due to Retail Crime

Earnings will suffer when selling less units and letting thieves take your units (to the tune of half billion).

May want to change the thread title.

 

I think we will be in a recession very, very soon. Probably this summer.

 

Now that I am being labelled a conservative,
Groceries have gone way up-
"Eat out" dinning has gone thru the roof
Our electricty bill has gone up even with less usage
New and used vehicles have become unaffordable for the vast majority
All vehicle related maintenance parts have gone way up
Paint and bodywork related supplies and equipment have shot up to the point I no longer take in jobs that I used to do.
Having a shipping container filled with parts shipped here has gone from 1200.00 in 2019 a trip to over 20,000.00 a trip 2023.
It just plain cost more to live, in just a few years.

 

Interesting retail angle here. Target reports lowered profits

The culprit, according to the company, is inflation and increased smash and grab rings in certain neighborhoods. Hmmmm. Nothing about the general move away from brick and mortar retail to online.

Other retailers, notably Walgreens, were caught falsely claiming increased theft as the reason to close stores. Wonder if this will hold up.

Target is among the first major U.S. retailers to report quarterly results, and a lot of attention will be paid to the impact that stubbornly high inflation and tightening credit are having on customers. Walmart, the nation’s largest retailer, reports earnings today. Macy’s, Kohl’s and Nordstrom post quarterly results later this month.


Target said theft is cutting into its bottom line and it expects related losses could be $500 million more than last year, when losses from theft were estimated to be anywhere from $700 million to $800 million. So that means losses could top $1.2 billion this year. The company said it’s seeing an increasing number of violent incidents at stores as well, but does not want to close stores and is expanding security and locking up some items.

Retailers are being hit with a rash of thefts and in some cases, closing stores and pulling out of locations because of massive losses, some tied to criminal gangs. The issue has received more notice in the past few years as high-profile smash-and-grab retail thefts and flash mob robberies have garnered national attention.


Target’s profits decline again
Target’s profits decline again - Tampa Bay Times

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$20,000 was so 2022.

Analysis: Some ocean shipping rates collapsing, but real price relief is months away

 

Thanks, I was going to point out he’s either lying or grossly misinformed. Was just discussing container rates in my business earlier this week. It surged astronomically but is back to normal ranges.

 

And then there is Walmart.
Walmart Earnings Stand Out in a Tough Spring for Retail

 

Rates are back to normal for a 40' container from Europe. They cost us about $4,500 door to door from Portugal in 2019 then went up over $20,000 in 2021 and are now back to $4,500.

 

Pretty sure I sent you a video on this. Price affects quantity demanded, not demand. Prices of substitutes & complements affect demand, but not a goods own price. Hence, less units sold does not necessarily mean less demand, it could be the result of higher prices not decreased demand. Hell, it could even be the result of a substitute's price going down.