Senate Races that have been called!

I don't see how Masters has any real chance of winning. Too large a deficit. Lake is certainly within striking distance, however. And if the late earlies broke like they did in 2020, Lake will win. But if the late earlies break like they did in 2018, Hobbs will win.

My gut is the late earlies will follow current county patterns. In 2020, there were more Rs who requested early ballots because of the pandemic. Yet, there are 100,000 more late earlies this year than in 2020. Many of these will be Gen Z voters and other undecided voters who waited until the last day before they made a decision. I believe these will break D, especially in the two most populous Arizona counties, where 500,000 out of the 600,000 votes to be counted remain. Other than 2020 results, which isn't likely to be duplicated, all indicators point for a 2018 repeat, especially since both nationally and in Arizona, most undecideds voted blue.

In the end, I expect Kelly to extend his lead with today's results. With Hobbs and Lake, I think the final tally ends up very close to where we started the day, which is a +13,000 lead for Hobbs. Hobbs adds 16,000 votes to her lead from Maricopa and an additional 10,000 from Pima, for a lead of ~40,000. The best Lake can do with the rest of the state, which includes blue areas like Nogales and Flagstaff is 65/35, which would give Hobbs a victory of around +10,000.

 

While probably the initial favorite in terms of perception she is even less likable than Hillary Clinton and whether or not it should be a factor likability does matter.

 

The Democratic Party organization is a weak piece of crap in Florida right now, and Crist was a weak candidate. However, that doesn’t take away from the fact that DeSantis is a divisive, mean-spirited, angry, uncaring human being with a superiority complex. He doesn’t just disagree with Fauci, he wants to throw Fauci into the Potomac. He doesn’t just disagree with Biden, he calls him Brandon. He lies to and then flies 48 asylum seekers to an island and dumps them off. He arrests, including, in at least one case, by a SWAT team, 20 former felons who thought they were allowed to vote and had received voter registration cards from the State. He refuses to expand Medicaid even though it would provide affordable health care to hundreds of thousands of Floridians. It just goes on and on with this power-drunk a-hole. The amazing thing to me is the support he gets from people in this state.

 

Damn son you are straight lib aren’t u ? Ron is the man to deliver this country from the abyss. Appreciate you’re efforts however

 

Arizona update. Kelly grew his lead to about 100,000 votes. Still a lot to count, but all the counties with less than 75% reported except one are blue counties. Maricopa is the big one, with only 73% in. Kelly is running +8 here. Next largest, Pima, has the smallest reported at 66%, and Kelly is +25 here. So many late earlies in Pima full counting might not be done until early next week.

Also less than 75% in are Coconino County (Flagstaff, which is a college/ski town), where Kelly is +29. Only county less than 75% that's red is La Paz, which borders CA, and is the second smallest county by population, and Masters is currently +33 here.

Again, any gains Masters might get in the rural counties will be completely offset by Pima. The vote will come down to Maricopa County, and the first returns of the late earlies in Maricopa favored Kelly. Assuming no change overall from all non-Maricopa counties, Masters would have to win 62.5% of the Maricopa vote to win. I don't think Masters won this much in day-in voting in Maricopa.

Same story for Governor, only Hobbs' lead is much smaller at around 17,000. Kelly has also out-performed Hobbs by a bit in every Arizona county. Still, the places with the most ballots out are blue, and Hobbs is +4 in Maricopa, +20 in Pima, and +25 in Coconino. Lake would have to win the late earlies by only 52% in Maricopa to make up the ground.

 

I hope you are right, the math obviously seems much better for Kelly to keep building an insurmountable lead, but the Hobbs/Lake race is uncomfortably close with the unpredictability of those last minute votes. I expect those “day of” to be more Trumpy more similar to 2020, so I’ve got a bad feeling about that one.

 

I don’t believe that I said a single liberal thing in my post, but I do consider myself progressive. And saying that, several of my positions on issues are ones that Republicans used to favor. I support enforcing the federal tax laws. Republicans seem to prefer to not enforce those laws. I prefer enforcing our immigration laws, which need to be amended, while treating asylum-seekers with basic common decency. Republicans seem to not want to enforce the current immigration laws, which allow asylum seekers to stay in the United States once they set foot on American soil. Republicans would prefer to not let these people stay in the United States when they are legally entitled to do so. 75% or more of these asylum-seekers will eventually need to return to their native countries, but until then we should respect the rights that they have under US law. I am in favor of providing quality health care for everyone in this state. It’s unfortunate that Republicans don’t feel the same way. I think that the former felons who are entitled to vote per our recent constitutional amendment should be able to vote. Republicans passed laws that are preventing these people from voting. I don’t think one or two parents should be able to tell teachers what can be taught in school and what books can or cannot be in their libraries. I think that a 10 year old girl who is impregnated by a rapist should be entitled to get an abortion in Florida even if she has been pregnant for 16 weeks. Republicans disagree.These are all common sense thoughts as to political issues. They are not tribal, as we see with Republicans who will favor anything that Republican leadership does and will chastise democratic political leaders for anything they do.

 

Anything is possible. But there are signs the day of drop offs won't break red like they did in 2020. But may break blue, like they did in 2018. In Arizona, most mail in voters are on a Permanent Early Voting List (PEVL), and are automatically mailed a ballot. Voters can also request a mail in ballot if they are not on the PEVL.

In 2020, lots of Rs requested early ballots who aren't on the PEVL. Didn't happen this year. This means the late earlies submitted on election day are more likely undecided voters on the PEVL. And nationally, and locally in Arizona, undecided voters are skewing blue.

We'll see. Should know more soon. Big Maricops drop expected 8 pm local, in about 30 minutes.

 

Arizona update. 78,000 Maricopa votes dropped. Kelly is up by just under 115k votes with about 500k left to count. This includes 100k from Pima County, where Kelly is +25. This race is over. After Pima, Masters would need 70% of the votes to catch up.

For Governor, Hobbs is now up 27,000. Add in Pima, and the lead will likely be closer to 50k. Lake would need 55% of the remaining vote to win. All comes down to the day of late earlies. If they break like they did in 2020, Lake wins. Anything else, or a break like 2018, Hobbs win.

 

I think most Republicans believe in a womens right in cases of rape etc… To me this subject is a non go with me . The Supreme Court made this call at the worst possible time . Right during campaign season . That divided this voting base even further . You make good points

 

Standing by my prediction than when the counting is over and done Cortez-Masto holds on her seat giving the Democrats a majority even before the Georgia runoff election.

 

i read that even if she gets 55% of the votes, which is less than those other batches she will win.

 

Where Nevada stands.

 

One pundit, Dave Wasserman, has called Arizona for Kelly. The big networks are still holding out. I believe it's because the local Rs are convinced the final ballots will represent a red wave of voters, and it might be enough for Masters to make up the ground. A quick analysis of history, however, says otherwise.

Of course, past events are no guarantee of future results, but in 2018, McSally had an early lead over Sinema and held a small lead at the end of Tuesday night. By Wed, Sinema had a small lead, and by Thursday, that had grown enough to call the election, as it was obvious, the late earlies were all breaking blue.

In 2020, Biden had a large lead by the end of Tuesday night. But the lead kept shrinking daily as the days went on. Just about every late early batch broke red, but in the end, there just wasn't enough to make up the difference. By Friday, the lead was around 15,000, with just around 15,000 ballots to count, and the race was called for Biden. Final tally was Biden winning with +10,000.

In 2020, the late earlies aren't breaking for one candidate or the other like they have in the past. Instead, they are mirroring the results of the previous early ballots already counted. For example, in the first count of early ballots, Hobbs was +10 in Maricopa County. Last night, the count of late earlies dropped off Saturday through Monday saw Hobbs again +10 in Maricopa County. There has yet to be any hint of a red wave in late early ballots so far in Arizona.

That's not saying it's impossible. Just the trend has yet to be established. And signs aren't pointing to a late red wave in Arizona, which is why Wasserman called the Senate race for Kelly last night.

 

It will be great to see Lake’s reaction when she loses. Can’t wait for all the denials and fraud claims.

 

Look forward to “3000 Mules”, release date 2023….

 

I have to admit that unlike Joe Biden, John Kerry and George W. Bush the lard ass with the orange complexion will never have a bike accident. He's probably incapable of riding a bike and fortunately for him golf carts very seldom flip over.