In the 2026 midterms, Democrats would need to win four seats to win outright control of the chamber, since JD Vance could cast tiebreaking votes in the event of a 50 to 50 tie. Their only obvious pickup opportunities — seats in states with a partisan lean towards Republicans of less than R+5 — are in Maine and North Carolina. On the other side, Democrats will have to defend seats in several swing states. Two-term Democratic Sen. Gary Peters recently announced his retirement, providing a Republican pickup opportunity in Michigan (R+1). Republicans are also eagerly eyeing seats in New Hampshire (D+1) and Georgia (R+3). Although Republican prospects in Virginia, Minnesota, New Mexico and New Jersey are more remote, and each has political dynamics advantageous to their Democratic incumbents, these may also be in play given their shrinking Democratic margins in recent years. Some political gurus such as Charlie Cook, have suggested that midterm dynamics might give Democrats a boost, since they usually favor the party out of power. Nevertheless, the most realistic positive scenario for Democrats would be a two-seat gain in Maine and North Carolina, and no losses elsewhere. This would make them a 49-seat Senate minority. MSN I cannot say I am disappointed. The longer we can keep these people away from power the better.
