Russian missiles crossed into Poland, killing two, says U.S. official

Good times. Technically article 5 comes into play. Question is will this escalate into an extinction level nuclear event? Let's hope the hell not.

 

This should be required reading. Apropos here. Tangled alliances drag the world into a regional conflict. This time with nukes.

 

Hard to see how this escalates into WWIII unless the Russians are like "yeah we meant to do that"

 

I don’t think so. I think for Article 5, it had to be a hostile action and an errant missile likely does not fall under that definition (albeit I am no Article 5 expert)

 

Or if the west retaliates, leading to an escalation.

 

I think the most that escalates is they send more hardware to Ukraine.

 

All depends on Poland. They can invoke Article V or not.

 

It's not going to escalate into a nuclear event. We've been way closer than this before and it didn't happen.

 

But you can only feign injury before they call your bluff. Once, we see it as incompetence on part of Russian forces, more than once, purposeful and an act of war. There's already a lot of concern Russia only pulled out to escalate to tactical nukes.

 

I think it's safer to say it's not likely to happen.

It's war. Anything can happen

 

I think they intended to blow the dam and flood everything but the explosion wasn't big enough

 

Biden won't do anything. He's too busy filling his diaper after talking to Xi.

It does give us the excuse though to heavily fortify Poland and Norway with anti missile, anti ship and anti air SAMs. Helps politically (hey we did something yay ...) and gives a carrot to the special interest donors from DoD contractors. I'm sure Ratheon is on the phone right now...

 

Poland may shoot two inside Russia for retaliation. Who knows? Russia can’t beat Ukraine so I feel Poland would kick there asses around too. Ukraine is ranked #101 in strength while Poland is top 25.
2022 Military Strength Ranking

 

I hope you are wrong. We will see. Russia needs a good punch in the nose. No doubt about that.

 

They might, but I hope they allow us to do it on their behalf as a NATO partner. We are much more capable of delivering a proportional strike than Poland, especially one that does not incur NATO casualties. If Poland tries to strike, and it has no effect, then they don’t get a second chance at it. Worse, if Poland hits back and has more effect than intended, it could escalate matters in an unintended way. I have no doubt we could do a third-bowl-of-porridge strike.

 

apparently Russia has previously threatened Poland based on Polish mercs working with Ukraine and arms shipments being sent thru Poland. From June

Now Russia threatens Poland: Putin kills 80 Polish fighters in 'precision strikes' in east Ukraine | Daily Mail Online

The missile warhead detonated which means this wasn't debris from a missile that was shot down.

Why the Russian missile strike in Poland is major escalation (msn.com)

Two things stand out.

First, Przewodów is approximately 42 miles from the Ukrainian city of Lviv, which again came under Russian missile fire on Tuesday. But 42 miles is an awfully long way off course for the accurate form of Russian missiles which are being used against Lviv. This area is approximately 100 miles from the nearest Russian launch areas in Belarus and more than 500 miles from Crimea. Images of the apparent impact crater in Przewodów also indicate a successful warhead detonation, suggesting that this incident was not the result of a Ukrainian air defense intercept that sent debris raining into Poland.

Russian officials have escalated their warnings in recent months that arms convoys traveling through Poland into Ukraine would be targeted. Russia's recent battlefield defeat around Kherson and increasing reliance on attacks against Ukrainian civilian infrastructure have also fostered concerns that Vladimir Putin is desperate to regain the narrative in Ukraine. These considerations will lead Polish officials to the early belief that the strike on its territory may have been deliberate and only thinly veiled as the mere result of a targeting failure. Polish and U.S. air defense sensors which monitor Russian air and missile activity will now be crucial in identifying this missile/s trajectory and thus supporting a broader assessment of Russian intent.

 

Putin is running out of options. His only path to anything resembling victory requires the West to capitulate. This move is the start of calling the West's bluff. Will they choose to enact Article V or will they give up Crimea and maybe the land bridge?

Mebe.

 

IOW, Putin: