(GYM) Road to Nationals NQS Standings Week 8

If the regional selections were held today, and the committee was following normal guidelines, Florida would be the top seed in the Auburn regional.


NQS Standings Blue indicates National Season High Score Bold indicates SEC member Italics indicates regional host

Rank Team NQS
1. Michigan 197.920
Ave 197.775
High 198.525
2. Oklahoma 197.860
Ave 197.694
High 198.200
3. Florida 197.715
Ave 197.688
High 198.250
4. Utah 197.685
Ave 197.522
High 198.000
5. LSU 197.515
Ave 197.496
High 198.050
6. Auburn 197.455
Ave 197.325
High 197.925
7. Alabama 197.360
Ave 197.253
High 197.875
8. California 197.065
Ave 197.032
High 197.575
9. Minnesota 197.015
Ave 197.143
High 198.025
10. Kentucky 196.985
Ave 196.986
High 197.450
11. Missouri 196.890
Ave 196.890
High 197.650
12. Michigan State 196.795
Ave 196.678
High 197.425
13. Denver 196.710
Ave 196.541
High 197.600
14. BYU 196.615
Ave 196.411
High 197.225
15. Arizona State 196.520
Ave 196.525
High 197.800
16. Utah State 196.435
Ave 196.178
High 196.800
NR Arkansas 0.000
Ave 196.393
High 197.200
17. UCLA 196.430
Ave 196.379
High 197.650
18. Ohio State 196.365
Ave 196.209
High 197.075
19. Iowa 196.325
Ave 196.275
High 196.825
20. Stanford 196.165
Ave 196.028
High 196.900
...
22. Illinois 196.110
Ave 195.872
High 196.650
...
28. Georgia 195.965
Ave 195.896
High 196.975
29. North Carolina State 195.940
Ave 195.778
High 196.725
35. Washington 195.615
Ave 195.456
High 197.275

VT
Rank Team NQS
1. Michigan 49.550
Ave 49.428
High 49.875
2. LSU 49.430
Ave 49.400
High 49.500
3. Florida 49.385
Ave 49.388
High 49.550
4. Utah 49.370
Ave 49.336
High 49.550
5. Oklahoma 49.365
Ave 49.347
High 49.550
6. Auburn 49.320
Ave 49.300
High 49.475
7. Minnesota 49.295
Ave 49.318
High 49.575
8. Kentucky 49.280
Ave 49.296
High 49.450
9. Alabama 49.250
Ave 49.241
High 49.500
10. Arizona State 49.215
Ave 49.182
High 49.350
10. Georgia 49.215
Ave 49.215
High 49.425

UB
Rank Team NQS
1. Michigan 49.515
Ave 49.497
High 49.600
2. Oklahoma 49.500
Ave 49.503
High 49.650
3. Florida 49.435
Ave 49.394
High 49.725
4. LSU 49.410
Ave 49.414
High 49.500
5. Utah 49.405
Ave 49.383
High 49.550
6. California 49.395
Ave 49.393
High 49.475
7. Alabama 49.375
Ave 49.356
High 49.550
8. Kentucky 49.340
Ave 49.350
High 49.475
9. Auburn 49.325
Ave 49.281
High 49.575
10. Denver 49.310
Ave 49.272
High 49.400

BB
Rank Team NQS
1. Oklahoma 49.505
Ave 49.372
High 49.700
2. Utah 49.450
Ave 49.308
High 49.725
3. Florida 49.440
Ave 49.419
High 49.700
4. Auburn 49.395
Ave 49.366
High 49.625
5. Alabama 49.355
Ave 49.344
High 49.650
6. Michigan State 49.242
Ave 49.242
High 49.500
7. Missouri 49.320
Ave 49.293
High 49.425
8. LSU 49.310
Ave 49.325
High 49.650
9. Michigan 49.285
Ave 49.278
High 49.500
10. Utah State 49.270
Ave 49.069
High 49.500

FX
Rank Team NQS
1. Michigan 49.600
Ave 49.572
High 49.700
2. Utah 49.555
Ave 49.494
High 49.675
3. Minnesota 49.530
Ave 49.536
High 49.725
4. Oklahoma 49.500
Ave 49.472
High 49.625
5. Florida 49.450
Ave 49.488
High 49.800
6. Auburn 49.415
Ave 49.378
High 49.675
7. Iowa 49.390
Ave 49.375
High 49.650
7. Michigan State 49.390
Ave 49.300
High 49.575
9. Alabama 49.375
Ave 49.313
High 49.625
10. LSU 49.350
Ave 49.357
High 49.775

Individual Florida NQS Rankings
VT
11. Trinity Thomas 9.895
Ave 9.919
High 10.000
13. Nya Reed 9.890
Ave 9.887
High 9.975
24. Savannah Schoenherr 9.880
Ave 9.854
High 9.950

UB
8. Trinity Thomas 9.915
Ave 9.894
High 9.975
28. Savannah Schoenherr 9.885
Ave 9.888
High 9.975
33. Megan Skaggs 9.880
Ave 9.881
High 9.950
39. Leanne Wong 9.875
Ave 9.856
High 10.000
81. Sloane Blakely 9.835
Ave 9.6675
High 9.900


BB
10. Trinity Thomas 9.915
Ave 9.929
High 10.000
24. Megan Skaggs 9.885
Ave 9.888
High 9.950
25. Leah Clapper 9.880
Ave 9.869
High 9.975
37. Sloane Blakely 9.865
Ave 9.841
High 9.950
54. Leanne Wong 9.845
Ave 9.844
High 9.925
197. Alyssa Baumann 9.730
Ave 9.756
High 9.925

No NQS for FX, AA

For complete NQS standings for all teams, click here

 

This is what I have learned from different gymnastics sites like College Gym News and podcasts like GymCastic and All Things Gymnastics:
1. Teams who have the most 10.00 start values in their Vault line-up have an advantage over other teams. Judges are more critical with a gymnast who's start value is 9.95 than one who's start value is 10.0.
2. Balance Beam is a neutralizer. Tired legs, nerves, inexperience or 1 counted fall can break a team's title hopes.
3. Injuries
Looking at the title contenders-
Michigan: Vault line-up has 5-6 10.00 start values and all have been consistent with sticking their landings
Beam is their weakest event and will surely be on the back of their minds in a close meet.
They lack depth (9 available gymnasts , of which 7 compete in 3-4 events per meet), and haven't been able to appropriately rest their top gymnasts. After scoring a 198.525, their last 3 meets were 197.600, 197.950 and 196.475- all with the same 7 gymnasts. So they may have already peaked (they had 3 falls on Vault last week).
They have been extremely lucky so far avoiding injuries.
They have the confidence and experience. As long as they can avoid an injury, they could get hot in April and win it all again.
Vault-Gators are improving each week on Vault. 4 strong 10.0 plus an improving Wong gives us an advantage over everybody who's not Michigan. But on Beam, we definitely have an advantage over Michigan.
Oklahoma has struggled on Vault. They have 3 strong 10.0 vaulters and decent 9.95s. After a slow start on Beam (49.175 and 48.675), they seem to be peaking. Their schedule- Alabama and Michigan (home), Florida, Utah (road) and then a bunch of Division 2 schools and teams outside the top 20 (Texas Women 2x, George Washington, Airforce, SE Missouri St, Boise St, Washington and a weaker Big 12) could play a factor. Especially when compared to us.
Advantage Florida
Utah is strong on Vault and stronger on Beam and have the talent and experience to win it all. But Florida is stronger on Vault and Bars, and very close on Beam and Floor.
Advantage Gators.
LSU had a late start due to COVID cancellations and are peaking. Their Vault and Bars line-up are as good as ours. But we have a more talented Beam and Floor line-up.
Advantage Gators.
For the rest of the top 10 and SEC, Gators are stronger in Vault, Beam and Floor. The only way they could beat us is if they are lights out on at least 3 events and we struggle on 2. We have already experienced multiple meets where the other team were lights out on one or two rotations (see Missouri, Arkansas, Kentucky) while we struggled on one or two, but still won. We still have not had meet with four great rotations. We have the nation's highest scores on Bars (49.725, the 2nd highest is 49.650) and Floor (49.800). We have the 2nd highest score on beam (49.700). Only Utah and Minnesota had a higher score (49.725). We have the 2nd best Vault line-up.
Advantage Gators!

 

NQS Analysis of each team from the excellent website Balance Beam Situation. I highly recommend this website for all proclaimed college gymnerds (I'm looking at you ETGator1, Gatorjjh, Oragator1, NWGaGator, GatoRade, incoldblood...)!
I think I got this right: For the Gators to become #1 this week, we need to score 198.025 and Michigan to score below 197.750 and Oklahoma below 197.425. To move to #2, we need to score at least 197.700 and Oklahoma below 197.425.

First the Gators:
3. Florida
Road Score 1 197.775
Road Score 2 197.575
Road Score 3 196.975
Home/Road Score 1 198.250
Home/Road Score 2 198.150
Home/Road Score 3 198.100
Current NQS: 197.715
Florida’s 198.100 in its home finale has given the Gators the best home scores of any team in the country. Now it’s time to go to work on those road numbers, which currently keep the team behind the top 2. It doesn’t necessarily have to stay that way. There’s an outside possibility that Florida could even get to #1 this week. But, Florida’s peak NQS after this week is 197.970, which is lower than the peak for Michigan or Oklahoma, so Michigan and Oklahoma’s results will dictate what happens in the top 3. Still, Florida can give itself at least a chance to pass Oklahoma with a 197.700 and a chance to pass Michigan with a 198.025 should either of them put up a clunker. And by clunker I mean a…gasp…mid-197.

Top 12, SEC and darkhorses:

1. Michigan
Road Score 1 198.525
Road Score 2 198.025
Road Score 3 197.950
Home/Road Score 1 197.950
Home/Road Score 2 197.925
Home/Road Score 3 197.750
Current NQS: 197.920
Michigan’s “let’s pretend we never went to Nebraska” three-fall vault rotation rendered this week’s score unusable. Still, Michigan’s six NQS scores are already high enough that there’s not particular urgency on the remaining regular-season meets to deliver results. This does, however, mean that Oklahoma will have the opportunity to pass Michigan for #1 in the country depending on the result of their meet this Friday. Michigan is still in the driver’s seat with a peak NQS of 198.075 compared to Oklahoma’s 198.015, but it would take a score of 198.250 for Michigan to guarantee sole possession of #1 next week, which is…not exactly a given.

2. Oklahoma
Road Score 1 198.175
Road Score 2 197.900
Road Score 3 197.750
Home/Road Score 1 198.200
Home/Road Score 2 198.050
Home/Road Score 3 197.425
Current NQS: 197.860
Oklahoma lost to Florida this weekend so won’t be putting up any banners about recent developments, but the team did achieve the main task of getting rid of a 196.6 away score and closing the gap with Michigan. When Oklahoma welcomes Michigan to town this weekend, Michigan controls its own #1-ranking destiny, but Oklahoma will be looking to score at the very least 197.725, which would be enough to provide an opportunity to catch Michigan should Michigan not record a counting score. Anything less than 197.725, and Oklahoma will definitely stay behind Michigan in the rankings.


4. Utah
Road Score 1 197.950
Road Score 2 197.750
Road Score 3 197.275
Home/Road Score 1 198.000
Home/Road Score 2 197.775
Home/Road Score 3 197.675
Current NQS: 197.685
Utah’s loss to Arizona on Friday wasn’t…ideal and left the team with a clear deficit to the top three. Competing at home this weekend and unable to drop that 197.275, Utah has maximum NQS of 197.750, which could pass Florida should Florida have a bad one, though the Gators won’t need to do all that much to ensure they stay in front. Since moving up this week would be tough and out of their hands, Utah will instead aim for a 197.925, which would guarantee a spot in the top four next week regardless of what LSU does.


5. LSU
Road Score 1 197.825
Road Score 2 197.625
Road Score 3 197.200
Home/Road Score 1 198.050
Home/Road Score 2 197.975
Home/Road Score 3 196.950
Current NQS: 197.515
A 197.625 road score allowed LSU to jump ahead of Auburn this week with the possibility of passing Utah this week now on the table if LSU can get rid of that 196.950. Because Utah still enjoys a fairly sizeable margin, that’s going to be in Utah’s hands, but scoring at least 197.800 on Friday would give LSU a shot. A strong score is also critical to fending off the challengers because Auburn and Alabama both compete twice, giving themselves double the opportunity that LSU has to improve NQS.

6. Auburn
Road Score 1 197.750
Road Score 2 197.250
Road Score 3 197.175
Home/Road Score 1 197.925
Home/Road Score 2 197.575
Home/Road Score 3 197.525
Current NQS: 197.455
A program-record 197.925 over the weekend nonetheless saw Auburn lose ground in the rankings because that’s still lower than two of LSU’s home scores. Auburn competes twice this weekend, once at home and once away, so we won’t know exactly how high the team can go until after Friday’s home meet, though Sunday’s away meet serves as the more critical competition since those road 197.1s and 197.2s won’t challenge the top five this year and must go if Auburn is to move higher in the rankings.

7. Alabama
Road Score 1 197.600
Road Score 2 197.125
Road Score 3 196.925
Home/Road Score 1 197.875
Home/Road Score 2 197.575
Home/Road Score 3 197.500
Current NQS: 197.360
Alabama’s 197.500 over the weekend did little to change the team’s NQS because that’s where we are right now. Exactly like Auburn, Alabama competes twice this weekend, at home on Friday and then away on Sunday, with the away meet being much more important for ranking purposes. Both teams may be faced with a lineup dilemma this weekend because they’ll have senior day on Friday and will want to go all “ahhh crazy scores, home finale, seniors, best lineup,” but getting a good score at Elevate the Stage on Sunday is crucial, so that one can’t then be a rest-our-people meet.

8. Cal
Road Score 1 196.925
Road Score 2 196.850
Road Score 3 196.675
Home/Road Score 1 197.575
Home/Road Score 2 197.525
Home/Road Score 3 197.350
Current NQS: 197.065
Cal’s score of 196.850 in losing to Arizona State was still enough to get into the top 8, though the team would have wanted a little bit more since the current state of these road scores is unlikely to be enough to get any higher than 8th. That’s especially true with Minnesota looming and enjoying a higher possible NQS than Cal does after this weekend’s meets. A busy end-of-season schedule still gives Cal three more road meets (including this weekend at UCLA), so none of those scores are bold yet. While Cal may fall behind Minnesota this week, the goal score will be 197.475, which would ensure fending off the likes of Kentucky, Missouri, and Oregon State, and also establish a road marker clearly higher than what those teams have done thus far.


9. Minnesota
Road Score 1 197.125
Road Score 2 196.500
Road Score 3 196.225
Home/Road Score 1 198.025
Home/Road Score 2 197.650
Home/Road Score 3 197.575
Current NQS: 197.015
The Minnesota roller coaster went back up this week with a program-first 198 to establish a very comfortable repertoire of home scores. The road scores are still keeping Minnesota well behind anyone in the top 7, but that 196.225 can be made to fly with a hit this weekend, and it would take a 197.400 to guarantee a spot ahead of Cal in next Monday’s rankings. Minnesota hasn’t yet managed that kind of score at a road meet, but it should be a very realistic aim for this team.

10. Kentucky
Road Score 1 197.150
Road Score 2 196.700
Road Score 3 196.275
Home/Road Score 1 197.450
Home/Road Score 2 197.450
Home/Road Score 3 197.350
Current NQS: 196.985
Kentucky reached a road season-high of 197.150 this week, which will put the team in contention to rise as high as 8th depending on how the weekend plays out. But since Kentucky’s 197.220 peak NQS is lower than Minnesota’s and Cal’s, so it’s going to be about how those teams do. Kentucky will control its own top 10 fate this week since it will take just 196.800 to confirm that status, and at this point in the season the scoring expectation should be at least that, if not higher.

11. Missouri
Road Score 1 196.875
Road Score 2 196.850
Road Score 3 196.775
Home/Road Score 1 197.650
Home/Road Score 2 197.350
Home/Road Score 3 196.600
Current NQS: 196.890
Missouri’s 196.775 last Friday was a fine-but-unexceptional score that served to maintain the team’s current place but doesn’t necessarily set Missouri up to move higher. A maximum NQS after this weekend of 197.100 will make it fairly challenging to catch anyone in the top 10 and does also put Missouri at risk of falling behind Oregon State once Oregon State has an NQS. A 197.075 this week would be a big help and would confirm a place in the top 12 (i.e. a top-3 seeding at regionals) for the week.

12. Michigan State
Road Score 1 196.975
Road Score 2 196.850
Road Score 3 196.775
Home/Road Score 1 197.425
Home/Road Score 2 196.875
Home/Road Score 3 196.500
Current NQS: 196.795
Michigan State recorded another solidly high 196 this week to keep comfortable pace in the tweens, though probably will fall out of the top 12 this week once Oregon State joins the rankings. The main goal for MSU will be to stay in the top 16 for seeding, which would be a huge deal. That position looks OK for now, but the likes of Arizona State, UCLA, and Arkansas may cause trouble in that regard in coming weeks.

Darkhorses and SEC

NR. Oregon State
Road Score 1 197.150
Road Score 2 196.575
Road Score 3
Home/Road Score 1 197.375
Home/Road Score 2 197.275
Home/Road Score 3 197.225
Current NQS: N/A
Oregon State will finally have an NQS after this weekend’s meet in Arizona. With a maximum NQS of 197.120 after this next meet, Oregon State should like its chances to slot in ahead of Missouri when joining the rankings, though challenging Minnesota, Cal, and Kentucky will be hard. So the Beavs will expect to be in 11th with a hit meet, though 9th or 10th would be in the picture.



15. Arizona State
Road Score 1 196.600
Road Score 2 196.550
Road Score 3 196.275
Home/Road Score 1 197.800
Home/Road Score 2 197.075
Home/Road Score 3 196.100
Current NQS: 196.520
Among the teams in this bubble zone competing for an all-important spot in the top 16 (seeded at regionals), Arizona State is in the best position. Coming off two consecutive 197s and with a couple low 196s to drop, expect this ranking to keep improving. A 197.125 this week would make sure ASU leapfrogs BYU regardless of what BYU scores, and Michigan State and Denver could also be realistic passes unless they’re able to get back to the 197s.

17. UCLA
Road Score 1 196.850
Road Score 2 196.300
Road Score 3 195.475
Home/Road Score 1 197.650
Home/Road Score 2 197.125
Home/Road Score 3 196.400
Current NQS: 196.430
UCLA helped itself out with a home 197 this weekend, though that’s helping itself out in terms of getting a seeded spot at regionals, not really in terms of a spot in the top 10 or top 8 since the those teams are counting better home scores than 197.1. It’s going to be a late thing for UCLA because that 195.475 can’t go away until the conference championships. That’s when the Bruins would have to make a big last-minute move into a less devastating portion of the rankings because if the season ended right now, UCLA would be an unseeded team heading to the Washington regional with Utah and LSU.
NR. Arkansas
Road Score 1 196.800
Road Score 2 196.475
Road Score 3
Home/Road Score 1 197.200
Home/Road Score 2 197.050
Home/Road Score 3 196.100
Current NQS: N/A
The bars problems continue to haunt Arkansas with a 196.100 in the home finale not doing a whole lot of good. But, Arkansas’s only bold scores are in the 197s, which is still a very competitive setup if the ship can be righted immediately, exactly now, right this moment. This weekend’s double-Alabama meets will be decisive for whether Arkansas finishes the season just trying to scrape into the seeded spots or whether Arkansas can still position itself as a postseason threat.

28. Georgia
Road Score 1 196.975
Road Score 2 196.800
Road Score 3 196.125
Home/Road Score 1 196.300
Home/Road Score 2 196.100
Home/Road Score 3 194.500
Current NQS: 195.965
Georgia got rid of one of its 194s last Friday, and any whiff of potentially getting relegated to the play-in meets should be gone after this weekend’s double-meet performance. At least, something would have to go very wrong for that 194 not to fly at this point in the year. Georgia is still, however, very much looking like an unseeded team at regionals. Which would be interesting.