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Reuters: Trump has gained 4 points since our last poll

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by okeechobee, Jun 15, 2024.

  1. gatordavisl

    gatordavisl VIP Member

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    That's it, thanks.
     
  2. G8tas

    G8tas GC Hall of Fame

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    Should Trump blame you for predicting he will win?
     
  3. Orange_and_Bluke

    Orange_and_Bluke Premium Member

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    I don’t think so.
    That guy still posts in basketball.
     
  4. scooterp

    scooterp GC Hall of Fame

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    This is true, but the same could be said about the other as well.
     
  5. gatordavisl

    gatordavisl VIP Member

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    Maybe true, but I was asking who posted the Matt Bevins Victory Party thread, which may have been Louisville.
     
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  6. okeechobee

    okeechobee GC Hall of Fame

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    Let's stay on topic. The topic here is Reuters saying Donald Trump has gained 4 points in the polls since the convictions in Manhattan.
     
  7. VAg8r1

    VAg8r1 GC Hall of Fame

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    And his lead over Biden is two points with a 3.0% margin of error. That means he could have a lead by as much as 5 points or could be behind Biden by one point and with Trump at 41% and Biden at 39% it means that 20% of the respondents in the poll prefer neither Trump nor Biden meaning they prefer a third party candidate or are undecided. And one more point which I have made in response to several of the other threads that your started pointing out Trump's small lead over Biden, polls before Labor Day are essentially meaningless. Let's not forget that in on July 28 1988 Michael Dukakis had a double digit lead over George H.W. Bush.
    Dukakis Lead Widens, According to New Poll (Published 1988)
     
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  8. cocodrilo

    cocodrilo GC Hall of Fame

    Apr 8, 2007
    I think that was before the video of Dukakis riding in a tank with a silly grin on his face.
     
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  9. citygator

    citygator VIP Member

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    I simply offered you a more credible poll aggregator that still has Trump leading.

    Be careful as you’re projecting your insecurity quite brightly these days on here. Even if Trump wins in a landslide you’ll still be you.
     
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  10. GatorRade

    GatorRade Rad Scientist

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    I think you are mixing up two different things in our history, the actual state of our unity and the political aims of the time. I’m not talking about the former but instead the latter.

    For example, you bring up the civil war which was precipitated by the election of Lincoln. In this way, one might say that Lincoln was the most divisive president ever. But looking at Lincoln’s goals, this is most definitely not true. Lincoln battled ideas, not people. Look here as he highlights the common humanity of northerners and southerners:

    Before proceeding, let me say I think I have no prejudice against the Southern people. They are just what we would be in their situation. If slavery did not now exist among them, they would not introduce it. If it did now exist amongst us, we should not instantly give it up.”

    And then after the war, there is no admonishing:

    “With malice toward none with charity for all with firmness in the right as God gives us to see the right let us strive on to finish the work we are in to bind up the nation's wounds, to care for him who shall have borne the battle and for his widow and his orphan ~ to do all which may achieve and cherish a just and lasting peace among ourselves and with all nations.”

    Lincoln never achieved unity, but look at his words. Unity was his goal. He never demonized his enemies or gloated in his victories. He believed in an American people, rather than a set of honorable Republicans and evil Democrats.

    When has Trump ever sounded like that? This is what Trump sounds like:

    Happy Memorial Day to All, including the Human Scum that is working so hard to destroy our Once Great Country, & to the Radical Left, Trump Hating Federal Judge in New York that presided over, get this, TWO separate trials, that awarded a woman, who I never met before (a quick handshake at a celebrity event, 25 years ago, doesn't count!), 91 MILLION DOLLARS for 'DEFAMATION,'"

    If you actually see these two messages as comparable, you need to seriously reconsider your definition of “nonsense”.
     
    Last edited: Jun 16, 2024
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  11. GatorRade

    GatorRade Rad Scientist

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    Unfortunately, tribal politics is indeed pervasive at this moment. Biden’s MAGA speech, whatever his intentions, certainly incited further division. I would still argue that the level of political rancor displayed by the Democrats does not currently equal that of the maga movement. The name calling and sole focus on destroying the other side is more characteristic of the right, but I would not be surprised to see the same from the left in the future, as the current trend doesn’t look good.
     
  12. WestCoastGator

    WestCoastGator GC Hall of Fame

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    "This country needs unity..." Change your mind already?
     
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  13. citygator

    citygator VIP Member

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  14. okeechobee

    okeechobee GC Hall of Fame

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    Trump can unify this country. He needs to replace Kagan and Sotomayor and make a few key changes to the Constitution and we're going to be good. One way Trump could help unite us is to make presidential terms 6 years instead of 4 years and also to allow a 3rd term. That way we are not switching back and forth so often and we don't have this division every 4 years. Trump could be president until 2036 and then by then the country will be so united, President Trump will be able to suggest a young successor (DeSantis perhaps?) to take over in 2037 and serve until 2055 (unless DeSantis sees it fit to extend the presidential term even longer, which I would be okay with).
     
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  15. ETGator1

    ETGator1 GC Hall of Fame

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    Need to see confirming polls as I'm having a hard time believing this, but polls released on Saturday have Trump ahead in Minnesota by a couple of points, ahead by a few 10ths in Virginia, and tied in Hawaii. It reminds from about 6 weeks ago when Washington had a local state poll with Trump leading. I can believe Washington easier than I can believe Minnesota and Hawaii. Virginia is a tossup.
     
  16. okeechobee

    okeechobee GC Hall of Fame

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    I tend to believe Minnesota has the best chance of all of those flipping to Trump. He has been polling neck and neck there with Biden for a while now. Virginia will be difficult for Trump to flip, because of all the establishment that live in northern VA. I highly doubt Trump flips Hawaii or Washington. He would flip New York before Hawaii or Washington. He could flip Virginia though if this keeps trending his way.
     
  17. VAg8r1

    VAg8r1 GC Hall of Fame

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    While the video of Dukakis in the tank certainly didn't help it was much more likely that it was the racist Willie Horton ad campaign that flipped the election in favor of Bush.
    upload_2024-6-16_13-12-49.jpeg
    [​IMG]

    The campaign was extremely effective although it was actually Dukakis's Republican predecessor that originated that convict work release program and Horton's release actually had nothing to do with Dukakis. It was the result of a screw up by the Massachusetts Department of Corrections since convicts serving life terms like Horton weren't allowed to participate in the program.
     
    Last edited: Jun 16, 2024
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  18. okeechobee

    okeechobee GC Hall of Fame

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    Latest Emerson out of New York has Biden +6. New York is in play, folks.
     
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  19. VAg8r1

    VAg8r1 GC Hall of Fame

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    Using your logic since the latest FAU poll has Trump over Biden by four percentage points, Florida may be in play for Biden.
    Donald Trump hit by shock poll in his home state
    Donald Trump at risk of losing Florida, recent polls suggest
    The FAU poll found that Trump has a four-point lead over Biden—46 percent to the president's 42 percent—in a head-to-head matchup. That's a decline on the findings of the of the same poll in April, which showed Trump with 50 percent to Biden's 42 percent.

    A separate Fox News poll conducted among 1,075 registered Florida voters from June 1 and 4 by Shaw & Company Research also showed Trump with a lead of four points in a two-man race
    .​
     
  20. GatorNorth

    GatorNorth Premium Member Premium Member

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    You might have a second career in comedy writing b/c this is one of the most laughable posts I've seen in my almost 20 years here.

    "make a few key changes to the Constitution"-do you have any earthly idea what it takes to modify the Constitution?

    Constitutional Amendment Process

    "Since the President does not have a constitutional role in the amendment process, the joint resolution does not go to the White House for signature or approval."