I get what you're saying, but I really don't think it's much of a factor. I mean Josh Allen is facing MUCH better defenses in the NFL than he ever saw at Wyoming. Not a fair example, but still. There are a lot of variables involved, but I'm not too worried about Mertz's ability against SEC competition.
That's the thing. Not trying to make a debate personal but for some reason he feels like that is a reason why Mertz will continue to struggle here but then seems to believe AR can succeed at the next level despite what he has shown us here. The best QBs in our history have struggled at the next level because the jump is so significant. Regardless of scheme, AR showed some pretty critical struggles with accuracy and leadership. Not sure how scheme fixes those, and I was someone who thought Shane matthews was off on his assessment of AR preseason. Shane has thrown out some odd opinions in the past and I thought his criticism of AR was off. He was spot on in hindsight.
Pressured. I read some advanced stats last night that shows Mertz is very accurate throwing off designed roll-out passes, but that his team called those plays at a very low rate last season.
The more I hear about Mertz, the more I'm optimistic. Initially I was upset that we passed on (what I perceive) to be better guys out there. But maybe he's a hidden gem that will be a good fit for us. I know...trust the coaches.
I don’t think there’s any evidence to suggest we passed on anyone. We were on Rashada and that got jacked up. Shit happens.
Good point. I meant "didn't pursue guys I wanted more". Mertz could've been our one and only. Although pretty sure we made a (too late) run at Howard.
We were on Howard as soon as he hit the portal, but taking Mertz or not had nothing to do with that. Mertz is someone they’re looking at for this season. Howard wasn’t. Going after Howard had much more to do with losing Rashada.
I agree. I think most feel like we're replacing the potential/ceiling of AR, instead of his production. If we remove the potential and ceiling, and just look at stats and intangibles, I expect the QB production to have an overall improvement in 2023 (perhaps modest, but improvement nonetheless).
McCall chose to go back to Coastal. I don't know if true, but from what I heard, he couldn't get into to UF or Auburn because of transcript issues.
I think AR has a better chance of improving due to him having much less experience That being said my defense of AR is not about him being a great pro. He probably won’t be. It’s that going pro is the right move. And I defend him against people that think he dogged it at UF or that he stunk here. He finished 36th in the nation at QB. Not great but solid. Mertz has been significantly worse all three of his year as a reference point. But yeah most likely Mertz and AR will both continue to be what they’ve been.
AR had a QBR of over 70 in 2022, second highest since Tebow (Trask). Mertz was at 52 in his 3rd year starting. 2021 he was at 56 It would take a big leap for Mertz to = AR production. Given Mertz doesn’t run he needs to improve last years passing by 1500 yards or so + throw for 10 more TDs + no more picks. It’s possible as it’s still not a great year. But it’s a leap.
But as a graduate transfer he should be okay to go to any school that has his major... I think. He graduates in May, JFYI.
Yep. It’s probably a mistake to draft him that high. But that’s why he should go pro. You should cash in when your value is at the highest. He had way more to lose than to gain by coming back
In Mertz's first ever start (Illinois was the opponent) he went 20/21 for 250 yards and 5 TD. He was a highly touted recruit. The upside is there. Like AR, he just needs to find some consistency. Sometimes a change of scenery and landing in the right situation is all it takes. Napier seems to think he's a good fit, so I don't think it's unreasonable to expect a leap if the staff can get the most out of him. For whatever reason, they couldn't with AR. Nobody knows why, but the next few years may be telling. It'll be very interesting to see how Mertz performs at UF and how AR performs in the NFL.
Heck ya. Cash that check and worry about all that later. He may or may not have gotten better if he played a couple more years. Id hate to be the coach or gm to draft him with a top ten pick but those Dec are why teams suck for decades.
