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President Trump's 10% tariff proposal

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by okeechobee, Jun 29, 2024.

  1. okeechobee

    okeechobee GC Hall of Fame

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    This isn't really being talked about much and I think it deserves its own thread. With President Trump now in the driver's seat to take back the Oval Office, this proposal stands out as one that could potentially have the greatest ramifications (perhaps positive or negative). I also think he could get it passed, because enough GOP will back him and this has long been an idea many Democrats have championed.

    When Trump introduced tariffs on China, there was a ton of skepticism, but it appears his concerns were validated. Biden not only kept the tariffs in place with China, but has recently sought to expand them to even higher tariffs with China. In short, it appears tariffs have become much more en vogue in Washington than they have been in a long time.

    I was a little surprised Trump proposed a blanket 10% tariff with every country, but I don't think he's just doing that for shits. There's a reason and Congress wouldn't go along with him unless they thought it was justifiable. After all, such a decision could potentially carry massive negative impact, so anyone who signs on has to be extremely careful.

    I would like to read some honest discussion from the pro-tariff contingent (if such exists here) removing the Trump hate and speaking on the policy itself. I mean, it's hard to say it's a Trump original idea. This is something many Dems have been calling for forever and Trump being the proud man that he is would be unlikely to propose something he thought would hurt American commerce. Discuss...
     
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  2. Gators1983

    Gators1983 Premium Member

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    The tariff issue is just the tip of the iceberg here. 10%, 20%, 50%…doesn’t matter. If it costs the company more to manufacture or import a product the price of the product is going to be increased to protect margins, which hurts the consumer.
    Imo the bigger issue is the US is so dependent on all these other countries to use cheap labor to produce cheap products for consumers. Everyone always says buy American but it’s more of a catchphrase and a feel good statement in many regards as consumers would be appalled at the cost of many of these items if they were manufactured in the US.
     
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  3. docspor

    docspor GC Hall of Fame

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    Terrible BIG GOV garbage
     
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  4. BLING

    BLING GC Hall of Fame

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    Across the board tariffs are a tax hike on Americans and net job killer, GOP might as well rebrand themselves the commie party as they would be putting themselves even to the left of the mainstream Dem party on trade.

    I’m on board with targeted tariffs where “dumping” or unfair practices can be demonstrated, but these tariffs are already a component to inflation, inflation which has finally been easing. You want more of that $@&t?

    I’m opposed to the Chips Act on economic grounds, but I am begrudgingly ok with it only because having our own chips can be construed as a national security issue. But I could still see it failing if that pipeline of chips never materializes here. On the other had no such security issues with most consumer goods. Do we need big gov “protection” from shoes and handbags? Hell no.
     
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  5. okeechobee

    okeechobee GC Hall of Fame

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    Help me understand the rationale though, if you don't mind. It's easy to sit here and say "10% tax on all Americans. Costs will skyrocket. Nothing else." There's an argument to be made for the tariffs. What is it in today's current climate? Again, the tariffs with China were derided. Some called Trump a racist over them. Now Biden is attempting to expand them. So you have two presidents back-to-back who seem to think tariffs can be a good thing.
     
  6. okeechobee

    okeechobee GC Hall of Fame

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    Honestly, I wonder if the higher ups know the world is on the pathway to WW3 and this is our way of getting ready. It's such a shift and it's strange that once Biden got into office, he all the sudden became very okay with the China sanctions and Biden is also not good with TPP. Something is going on.
     
  7. BLING

    BLING GC Hall of Fame

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    Biden is a pro-union leftist who would be in favor of tariffs, particularly in industries such as steel. I don’t think there’s any mystery there at all.

    The argument for the Chips Act is partly over Taiwan concerns I’m sure, but even without that we already experienced real chip shortages due to the pandemic. China shot themselves in the foot on trade.
     
    Last edited: Jun 29, 2024
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  8. docspor

    docspor GC Hall of Fame

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    leftism is what the people want - that’s why the parties are kissing cousins on eco policy
     
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  9. ncargat1

    ncargat1 GC Hall of Fame

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    Chips Act is largely political theater. When a single wafer fab costs ~ 20 $Billion, an $80B outlay is nothing but political show. Further, until people realize that to be free of China the ENTIRE supply chain has to be moved out of China. The means laminates, SMDs, mold compound, test (wafer and final product) and assembly all have to be moved out of China or it is a waste of money building fabs in the US, that end up shipping wafers or die to China.

    Further, getting out of China is insufficient. If a shooting war really started between China and the world, do people really think Taiwan, Vietnam and the Philippines are safe? Why in the world are all high tech companies moving out of China just to continue to do business with Chinese companies like Foxconn just because they moved assembly to Vietnam??

    The American public is woefully ignorant. We saw that in the election of a career scammer. We saw that during the pandemic. We see it now with people being convinced that an economic war, followed by actual war is the only path forward to ensure our corporations continue to profit at the expense of, everyone.
     
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  10. okeechobee

    okeechobee GC Hall of Fame

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    Why would our leaders want to make things 10% more expensive here? There has to be more to it than "they a bunch of commies." The question is somewhat flippant, because I think we all know that's not how it works. A 10% tariff on all goods doesn't mean the cost of everything at the store goes up 10%. Cost of goods are driven by supply and demand. The consumer would adjust, as would the businesses.

    Give me something more than "them damn commies".. aren't you an Econ professor? Talk to me.
     
  11. okeechobee

    okeechobee GC Hall of Fame

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    Ahhh... so you acknowledge what I hit on earlier. It's preparation for the war they assume is going to happen. Which includes Trump. Trump has information that leads him to believe WW3 is inevitable.
     
  12. Emmitto

    Emmitto VIP Member

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    Obviously WWIII is inevitable.

    WWI was the nastiest scourge to humanity ever conducted, at least non-internally. The world followed that up with a worse one just 20 years later. And that first one was a “fresh” memory.

    We are almost out of WWII vets to tell us what true calamity is. Not the one spoiled brats fantasize about on the chans and in churches.

    What is this super-secret “info” Trump has?

    I mean, was it in the bathroom boxes?
     
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  13. okeechobee

    okeechobee GC Hall of Fame

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    Nothing like finding some common ground. Though I am attempting to follow you. WW3 is inevitable because we had WW2 which barely followed WW1? Ok. But WW2 ended with atomic bombs. So maybe that's why WW3 hasn't happened almost 80 years later, knock on wood. However, I agree with the overall that it's inevitable. I'm curious if the tariffs are prepping for that.
     
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  14. Emmitto

    Emmitto VIP Member

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    Well, “nationalism” was mos certainly the idea for those first two.

    When your existence is shrinking into a ball and you consider every bump a threat to that existence, that’s when the chaos kicks off.

    I myself am a “no fly zone” guy. Don’t be rubbing up bruv. But if I go to a concert, that is unworkable. Couldn’t even get through the line.

    I have to accept that the entire world exists outside of my bubble. Otherwise I am on a path to oblivion. Even after I decimate every foe, well, here I am. Aaaaaaand, also oblivion.
     
  15. BLING

    BLING GC Hall of Fame

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    What do you think is the point of tariffs???

    Industry X gets undercut 10% by foreign competition, you slap a 10% on a product to protect the more expensive domestic producer - consumer choice (and not just retail consumers, but businesses as well) is then to pay up 10% higher to meet the tariffed price OR to curtail economic activity. You are correct “inflation” may not always reach the full amount of the tariff 1:1, but that occurs when the amount of the tariff is significant enough to curtail economic activity and trade. Either way the result is an inefficiency, an economic loss. There’s no result where prices stay the same AND demand stays the same. That 10% tax gets accounted for either with inflation or less demand at the tariff adjusted price.

    You fancy yourself a fiscal conservative, right? Arguing for across the board 10% tax seems bizarre when we know the historical outcome of tariffs. Hell it was demonstrated during the last admin with those soybeans rotting in fields and other products targeted by the back and forth in the trade spat. That is what lost economic activity looks like. I think Covid sort of gave a reprieve on those developing and predictable economic issues, not a “reprieve” but a calamity that made all that an economic trifle in relative terms.

    I also think there would have been far more pressure on Biden to repeal the tariffs, but for the fact China’s extended shutdowns and supply chain issues meant they couldn’t deliver those goods anyway! At least through ‘21 and ‘22 supply chain mooted tariff impacts imo. So any direct inflation those tariffs would have continued to cause, got lost in the wash of highly inflationary supply chain shortages and the other issues going on in China under their dictator (more and more companies diversifying at least to Vietnam due to “China risk”). But it should be pointed out Trump isn’t just talking about China here, he’s taking about doing this to “good” trading partners as well. That would potentially be $ trillions of goods tariffed rather than mere $10’s of billions as it stands now.
     
    Last edited: Jun 29, 2024
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  16. ElimiGator

    ElimiGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Lot of hands feeding pockets. This is independent of party affiliation. Why it’s called the swamp?
     
  17. demosthenes

    demosthenes Premium Member

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    I have personally worked on two different fabs, both cutting edge for Intel, and they were not close to $20B. There’s been price escalation since then but I’d wager you’re looking more like half that, depending on what processes and support buildings need to be built or expanded (PUB, CUB, etc.). As for the Chips Act, we’re currently working on a Fab that the owner is working its damnedest to secure funds through the Act. Hundreds of millions for a small/medium fab makes a significant difference, as do local incentives waiving property taxes on the expansion machines.
     
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  18. G8R92

    G8R92 GC Hall of Fame

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    Because the money coming in from tariffs is a tax that funds the government. With Trump, his 2017 tax cuts to the wealthy. For Biden, take your pick of social programs. How about student debt forgiveness?
     
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  19. okeechobee

    okeechobee GC Hall of Fame

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    Now, this makes sense. However, if it is as the others are saying, wouldn't sales drop at least almost 10%? Thus negating the higher percentage on the tariff? So now America is making things harder on trade for nothing? Doesn't make sense. I suspect it's more nuanced than what's being suggested by some.
     
  20. okeechobee

    okeechobee GC Hall of Fame

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    I mean, it's all interesting, but I could turn the same questions around on you. If tariffs amount to nothing more than a tax on American consumers, then surely you want taxes on wealthy small business and large business owners to be significantly decreased, right?? Because we know they are passing that tax on to the American consumer and there are no mitigating factors to that where other countries can make a product cheaper to get it to American consumers here at the same price.

    Nobody has mentioned that prospect that a minor tariff could incentivize certain countries to find ways to make a product cheaper. I'm sure this already happens to some extent today, but you introduce a 10% tariff, some countries are going to be able to find a way (Vietnam?) and others not so much, because their productivity isn't as clean.