Pre-Game Discussion: #22 FLORIDA at Kentucky

If so, high probability we'd lose. Don't think we can run the ball consistently on them. However, if D get us 2 TOs, we probably wins

 

No, it doesn't. TN win is a lucky win and BN still the OC running a mundane O with below average play-callings. However, scoring 30+ over KY probably will change my mind a little. Highly doubtful that happens without assistance from our D

 

Just win baby

 

It felt like Kentucky had our offense figured out last year. Nearly every time AR ran play action with a roll-out there was an athletic linebacker or DE right in his face. My gut going into this one is we lose. Kentucky has coaches and a system that has been around a while and we are breaking in a lot of young players. I think we have more raw talent, but I just think we are too young and we will get out-coached. If we were playing at home at night I would call it even, but on the road, noon game, I just don't have a good feeling at all, but obviously hope to be proven wrong. If we win this one, especially convincingly, to me it will be bigger than the UT win. Follow up the UT win with an egg on the road against UK, and it tells me we still have a ways to go, which I think is the case.

 

Yep, if Tennessee was just a better team, we would have lost. It’s a great perspective.

 

we are getting a lot of revenge on KY this year, 4-1 here we come!

 

I'm coming in as a Kentucky fan with respect. Which I mean I have no choice since you all broke my little heart so many times as a child that it hardened me into being the man I am today lol. But I do have some points for this game. Again, respect your program and coach Napier. The only hate I had for Florida was the bandwagon fans in my school during the Urban days because it wasn't cool to cheer for UK football...UF was the team. Urban and Billy D was the most legendary duo for college coaches ever at a school.

Also, still mad you all didn't beat Louisville in the 2012 Elite 8 and then lost to them in the Sugar Bowl. Really could've changed history if you helped us to beat those Cards!

Some notes for the game from what I see

1.) I think both teams NEED this win badly. I think both teams have potential to break out, so it's the old momentum game.

2.) Don't get caught up in our record or our opponents because this is typically how Stoops does it to start seasons. He plays DOWN to the bad teams, but gets up for the big games. We get way too vanilla and sloppy. Don't know why, but it's what we do. But since 2014, generally the Florida game is the game Stoops teams play their best game. That because it's usually the first big game we play and he gets the guys fired up. That's usually why you see us get up for this game as it's the first time Stoops can get the troops rallied to play hard.

a) Example 2018: We were down in week 1 to a Central Michigan team that finished 1-11. We only won 35-20. We didn't know who would be our QB, if our line could block, or if our defense was physical enough. We came in and played a perfect game the next week in the Swamp and finally won and carried it to a 10-3 season. You guys were a better team, but we just played up for that game.

b) Example 2019: We looked very pedestrian against Toledo & Eastern Michigan going into the game in 2019. We lost our starting QB and were playing a transfer. We played some of the best football I've ever seen against you guys. Then history changed...Franks injured...we don't get a 4th down conversion...and the legend of Kyle Trask begins lol. But we did play a great game considering we weren't close to you all overall...you all were awesome.

c) Example 2021: We were 4-0, but man it didn't look amazing. Chattanooga from FCS had us beat in the 4th quarter and we only win 28-23. You guys almost took down Bama the week before. We come in and just play lights out defense and make enough plays with a rocking home crowd. I think if you all had won, Mullen might have survived and had momentum the rest of the way.

d) Example 2022: We played sloppy against Miami Ohio...up 13-10 at the half. You all beat an awesome Utah team. We come in again and just play hard and get a hard fought victory.

3.) Going with #2 above, this is going to be a BIG and LOUD home crowd. We're doing the t-shirt game for you all, meaning this is the game we're putting the most effort into making a hostile environment. It's the first BIG game of the year. So Stoops will have the guys playing with energy. You all being a great program...you've seen the teams come in fired up to beat you and play up for the big team coming to town. That's what this game is for us. I'm not going to say that we've played you all well under Stoops because we're a close program in terms of talent, but we've just put a lot of effort into this game...and after ending the streak it added more confidence. Stoops has a way he does things and this game always lines up for him to make it the first big effort game. I do believe you'll see a much cleaner effort with more intensity than the last few weeks.


So now to evaluating the game...I've watched you guys a lot the last few years. You guys are better than you think and Napier is doing a great job considering the massive roster turnover. I do think this is probably the first time I don't think you all have a massive talent edge. Does not mean we're better, but in the past I've always felt like you all just are top to bottom better. It's mainly due to us not having a big roster turnover and being older in some key spots and you all rebuilding. But still, does not mean we're better at all. It's just a more evenly matched game from a talent perspective. So below is me telling you about us....and kind of comparing it to you guys.


Kentucky Offense:
-I think this is the rare occasion where we probably have a better QB and better playmakers at wideout.
-Devin Leary is a good QB...idk if he's great...but he can really make plays. He's an upgrade from Levis.
-We have 3 wideouts that can just go get it. Barion Brown will be a NFL top 3-4 round pick. Dane Key is a NFL talent. Tavion Robinson is a college playmaker. They can get loose at any time. We can get stagnant, but those guys could break loose at any time. Brown is what I call a Bama/Florida/Georgia/LSU type talent that somehow we got to Kentucky.
-The running game has issues...but we can make big plays. Ray Davis you all know is a playmaker. He's not like the Benny Snell types in the past. We do have trouble with being physical. So after Davis, it a mystery who is the clear RB2. Right now it's by committee.
-The Offensive line is improved...but we were the worst in P5 last year so that's not saying much. Really the game will come down to if Kenneth Horsey can play, he's been out since week one and he's our very important starting Left Guard. That's hurt our running game without him. We've also had to move our other interior lineman to Center as there were snap issues. If Horsey is back, then we'll be able to run the ball more effectively.
-As it's our first big game, expect Liam Coen (our OC) to add in more flavor. We've been vanilla flavored and haven't shown the full play book. I would expect some trickery. But you guys are tough on defense...not expecting us to light it up.

Kentucky Defense:
-Our defense is really talented and well coached. I really do think it's going to be a defensive battle on Saturday. Our guys are big and when they get fired up they could be really great.
-Our strength is the DL and our run defense. Our NT Deone Walker is going to be a first round draft pick in 2025. We have a lot of big talented bodies on this front. This is where the battle will be for the game...can your line get a push against our DL.
-We have linebackers who can make plays. Trevin Wallace (who returned the blocked kick against you in 2021) is a physical freak and will be a NFL draft pick. JJ Weaver is back and can make plays too. Finding ways to sneak them in on blitz packages will be what Stoops will add...he hasn't shown it much but he'll work it in on Saturday.
-The secondary is the weakest unit in terms of experience, but they're performing very well. They're athletic and improving with every week. Stoops will have softer coverage, so there won't be too many opportunities to beat us over the top.
-Basically Stoops plays a lot of "bend don't break" defense...he's going to make Mertz beat us with short throws. He's going to want to prevent the BIG PLAY and make Mertz work the field...just as he did with Franks, Jones, and Richardson. Force you all to make mistakes. I know he's really going to focus on stopping the run.


It's going to be a battle of physicality...Kentucky's Keys to victory?
-Playmakers on offense make enough plays. Like with Snell, Bowden, Wan'dale Robinson..our skill guys need to do enough
-Win the turnover battle. Leary doesn't need to make mistakes...and we need to force some turnovers.
-Win the battle of our DL vs. your OL. Etienne scares me and we have to keep him in check.
-Limit big plays and make Mertz beat us.
-Home Field advantage. We need our crowd to give us that boost.

Again, just my eyes as a biased Kentucky fan. A big bellwether game for both teams as the season moves forward. Although enemies for the week, we can all say **** Tennessee!

 

Great post/analysis and welcome to the board. Kentucky has obviously become a very scary opponent for us, and I never thought I’d see the day where you are a rival yet here we are.

Hope to see you around more.

 

I haven't watched UK play yet this year, but I certainly don't agree that Leary is a clear upgrade from Levis or that he's better than Mertz. Mertz has almost a 20% better completion percentage, slightly better average at 8.8 vs. 8.6, and only 1 pick that was due to a WR drop. None of that is to say that Mertz will perform better this weekend, mind you. That's always a possibility, but the stats tell a different story

 

Similar to how we felt in basketball, you guys became the top SEC team and country for a bit. And then became our biggest SEC basketball rival....even though you all haven't been on the Billy D level since he left...that game still always is one we circle on our schedules no matter if you guys are ranked or not.

But hey, we're not all basketball in Lexington anymore lol

 

The game will be on ESPN @ noon, but no Mowins.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401520282

 

Idk about Leary vs. Mertz, don't want to get into that discussion. But Leary from an eye test just looks way better than Levis in 2022.

Well considering Levis was injured last year and just not as accurate on the longer throws. He couldn't run the same either. He had more big play potential due to his arm strength and his big/fast body, but overall he wasn't as polished as Leary. I trust Leary more to be able to convert a 3rd and 7 pass to a tight-end. Now we don't have any numbers yet over a whole season, but I bet if Leary is healthy he'll be much better than the Levis we had in 2022.

The Levis you guys saw wasn't injured, he injured his toe during the Ole Miss game...came back against Miss State and then dislocated his shoulder during that game.

Levis stats against Vandy...
11 for 23(47%), 109 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT,

That's how bad he was after his injury.

 

Thanks Shane, I agree with you. Time for Coach to check off an SEC road win in 23 and of course evening the score against the Cats.

Such a big game for both programs.

How many seasons have the Cats started
5 - 0 In recent history? That speaks for itself.

The higher ups know UF must win SEC East games, ESPECIALLY against the likes of Vandy, S Carolina, KY and Mizzou, just to get in any real SEC conversations.

Having gone to the game last year, I found it a complete and utter embarrassment that the Gators could not complete a forward pass in the second half.

Mertz may or may not be a #4 NFL draft pick but he CAN complete passes, currently at a dazzling 78 - 79% completion percentage.

I'm looking for payback and I suspect coach is to.

 

Thanks, still a bit surprised 2 SEC East teams with a combined record of 7 - 1 only get some noon spot.

Well, I prefer it to a night game in Lexington, thats for sure.

 

My thinking exactly.

 

I hope UK's DC thinks like you and maybe doesn't watch tape of the Tennessee game which was the only game where our entire starting OL all played.

 

In Lexington, yeah. In the Swamp, no.

 

To be fair, this is Leary vs Vandy 2 days ago:

15 of 29 (51.7%), 205 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT.

That was the worst an FBS QB has performed against Vandy this year

 

One game against a TN team with inadequate DC and QB doesn't mean much

 

I wish I could say the same. But I won't lie, I really can't stand how much Stoops lobbies the refs. You'd think he was UK's basketball coach who just is moonlighting as the football coach. And its not even always over close calls. I've seen him go berserk over stuff that wasn't even close.

There's also the part of me that is growingly worried about what is being taught in that locker room on the defensive side of the ball. You had the intentional attempt by that LB, who later apologized, to injure Kyle Trask when UF was coming back after the Felipe Franks injury. Then, last year, a UK DL held on to Richardson's ankle for a solid 5-7 seconds after the play was over and Richardson twisted it trying to pull away and limped the rest of the game and wasn't the same. I'm hoping its just coincidence or that Im wrong about the second one but one confirmed attempt and one seeming attempt to injure our QB makes me worried about FSU in the 90s tactics.