Powell downplays odds of both rate hikes and stagflation

Pure politics... out of control inflation should mean rate hikes, but all is good... if you believe that real federal leadership change is on it's way in November. And that President Trump's economic friendly polices will be re-enacted as soon as he takes the White House back. Good economic change that America deserves.

 

3.5% year over year inflation is “out of control”?

The Current Inflation Rate is 3.5%. Here’s Why It Matters - NerdWallet

The average between 1960 and 2022 was 3.8% per year so we are actually under the 62 year average.

Inflation rates in the United States of America

Am I happy with it? No. But let’s not live in hyperbole world.

 

If you think this economy is good then you're been hiding under a rock with economic fools...

In the past it's ALWAYS BEEN INFLATION THAT DICTATES RATE HIKES.

 

The economy has plenty of problems but if you’re going to purport to recite facts using hyperbole and nonsense then you’re gonna get called out for it.

And I think you’re engaging in some revisionist history about how “great” it was between 2017 and Covid when GDP growth barely averaged 2% prior to Covid. Like I said, use facts not fiction.

 

I don't have to "recite" the facts about our crappy economy. That's for people like you, that try to paint a pretty picture of a turd economy, to do.

IT ALL ABOUT THE INFLATION!!!!

 

I painted neither a pretty nor not pretty picture of it. I gave you facts as to where inflation is today vs the past 60+ years average. You give nonsensical partisan gibberish as a response because that’s all you know how to do and then you use ALL CAPS to make yourself feel better like you’re screaming at someone. But I do applaud you for not calling me a Communist again. Baby steps.

I currently have about $150m of variable real estate construction loans whose rates have gone from about 3% to 8% the past 2 years. Trust me, it’s brutally painful and I’m quite certain that I’ve felt inflation and the impact of rising rates far more than you have. Which is why if you go back to my first comment you’ll see that I said I wasn’t happy with it. But at the moment our inflation is hardly “runaway” as you claim.

 

Still all about the inflation!!!!

 

That's so funny!

 

Show us that rosy economic picture again, GatorNorth.


Last Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released its advance estimate for 2024’s first-quarter real GDP growth. At 1.6 percent, it is the worst quarterly performance since the economy contracted by 0.6 percent almost two years ago in the second quarter of 2022. This was a growth level one-third below economists’ expectations of 2.4 percent. It is also a precipitous drop from 2023’s fourth quarter rate of 3.4 percent and 2023’third quarter rate of 4.9 percent.

This slower growth comes on the heels of higher inflation. The March report on overall prices showed the Consumer Price Index for all Urban Consumers rose 3.5 percent over the last year — 3.8 percent when core inflation (minus food and energy) was considered. That figure was higher than any since September 2023 and marked the third consecutive monthly increase.
This jujitsu juxtaposition of higher inflation and lower growth must not be underestimated. Gone is the charade of someone who has effectively never worked in the private sector telling working Americans how good the economy is. Joe Biden, who loves to harken back to blue-collar Scranton roots, should have known better. Americans now do.

There is but one real measure of the economy for them: Am I putting more on my family’s table? Inflation’s insidious impact is its cumulative effect. Just because inflation’s rate of increase slows (which it isn’t) does not mean its past effect is wiped away (which it’s not). Now the economic growth that the administration hoped would at least outstrip inflation’s increase — and reverse some of that cumulative effect — is not.

Biden’s worst-case economic scenario is unfolding at the worst possible time | The Hill

 

LOL, Powell cover his short positions at close on 4/30/24.

 

GROSS!

 

Every Dem is shorting this economy.

 

Seems like you should be doing so. If your argument is how terrible everything is going to be, wouldn't that make sense for you to do?

 

I don't short stocks... I do own stock shares but I like to let them grow.

 

But aren't you arguing that they won't grow?

 

I'm have been upset lately, but they're not dead yet... lol. Now go look at the cannabis stocks and watch that crazy ride. The prospect of Florida passing recreational cannabis and the fed softening it's classification on weed makes for a roller-coaster ride.

 

Interesting take on interest rates ......

Billionaire 'bond king' Bill Gross says soaring Treasury issuance means bond yields can't come down anytime soon (msn.com)

The high level of US debt issuance signals to investors that they should expect yields to move higher, not lower, according to "bond king" Bill Gross.

The billionaire investor and PIMCO co-founder wrote in a note on Thursday that the US fiscal deficit, largely driven by a massive rollout of Treasury bonds, is now deemed a "necessity" to propel the economy forward, which is fueling upward pressure on bond yields.

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He highlighted that the outstanding balance of Treasurys has surged at over a 10% annual rate for the past 18 months, thanks to post-COVID deficits of $2 trillion-$3 trillion dollars. By the end of 2023, the Federal government had racked up nearly $30 trillion in debt.

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"Look for 5% plus 10-year yields over the next 12 months — not 4.0%. Those that argue for lower rates have to counter the inexorable upward climb in Treasury supply and the likely Sisyphean decline in bond prices," Gross said.

 

I never had before I shorted the truth social stock and made a bundle. It’s quite easy. I recommend.