About halfway through the season and I know it is way too early to be talking about the Big Dance. But I thought it would be fun to discuss projections based on the simple NET rankings coupled with game locations (home or away). At 11-5, I'm thinking we need to get to at least 20 wins by Selection Sunday. I realize there will be upsets (both good & bad for Gators) but below are how I think the rest of the season lays out "on paper". Win Loss Toss Up @Mizz @Tenn Miss St Georgia @Kentucky Auburn LSU @A&M @Georgia Vanderbilt @Alabama @S. Car Mizz Alabama @Vandy If we win 3 of the 5 toss-ups we get to 20 wins and would be 10-8 in conference. All prior to SEC tourney. If we win 2 of 3 toss-ups, then we are 9-9 in SEC and would need at least 1, if not 2 wins in SEC tourney to get us to 20-13 or 21-13. What are your thoughts?
I don’t think just winning the green highlighted games gets it done. 9-9 would be very much on the bubble. If Florida wants to be a tourney team, we really ought to win *every* home game regardless of whatever that BPI says. Only Auburn is ranked. We only have 18.6% chance to beat LSU at home? Huh? If we win 7 home games, picking off 3 of the more winnable road games should be plenty good enough, and hopefully we win at least 4 or 5 on the road. For each home loss, then you start needing an extra upset on the road rather than the “expected” wins. I’m sure it won’t go exactly as predicted, but taking care of business at home is the clearest path imo.
It just seems crazy that even if we win all the green games on your chart, we’re still a bubble team. It seems that making the tournament has become even more difficult.
No panicking. The SEC is the 2nd-ranked conference. If we go 10-8 in conference, including at least 1 Quad 1 win, we will be in. Maybe even at 9-9. Just need to keep an eye on our NET ranking.
Yep, I was thinking the same thing. Looking over the brackets, about 1/3 of the teams that will make it are from conferences that'll get one team in as an automatic qualifier. Lots of cannon fodder, maybe a Cinderella among them. UF is probably a better team than most of these.
We are far away from being solidly iN and right now are probably not in at all. We have to beat tournament teams and we have not yet.
Miss State & USC are projected to make it according to nearly all bracketologists. The Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix - 2024
I wouldn’t say we are far away, but we can’t afford any slip ups, and need to win a few that we are presently not favored to win.
Right now we are not and won't be. If we go 8-10 which is what we are doing. 8-1 at home, 0-9 away. But this all could change very quickly- hopefully, Winning record in the SEC, we are in.
Hopefully I’m eating my words tonight, but I can’t see us winning any games as a road underdog which basically only leaves 2 opportunities for resume wins with Alabama and Auburn at home. Squandering Kentucky was just killer.
The path has been always the same for this team: Mesh all the parts in time so that you win enough games against the upper-echelon teams. If we don't and begin to splinter, then Golden's calculated risk WILL blow up. And probably so will his tenure if it turns out as bad as last season.
Hopefully we can beat a team from Missouri on the road. They are fighting hard, played SC close and scared Alabama, in Tuscaloosa until they pulled away late. They need someone that is loose with the ball, up and down on shooting threes and no inside game, sound familiar? On Saturday they will have a good crowd and of course the refs hate Florida, what could go wrong? Hope we get over being beat down on the road.
