Orlando Sentinel: UF AD Scott Stricklin Insists Billy Napier Is Not On Hot Seat

It's very clear. He IS NOT on the hot seat. The only backup you have is that of some random sportswriters expressing their opinion. Once again, the evidence is clear.. His contract has a 25 million+ buyout if he is let go after 3 years. The ONLY REASON that was agreed to is that they would give him the time for this rebuild and not cut it short. He will get 4 or 5 years minimum. Plain and simple.

 

Every point you make is accurate. Too bad there’s no way around these buyout things if you really want one … like with Pruitt or Freeze. But anyway, and on a completely unrelated note, all Napier has to do is make the minimal standard of winning season this year, and then we’re not talking about how to get around buyouts. No one will — strictly as an example — need to produce evidence of misconduct in his personal life, like Freeze having conversations with ladies of ill repute, or professional malfeasance, such as Pruitt bending NCAA rules on recruiting.

 

The majority of our offensive linemen for years have been 3-star talent. We have gotten some gems in the portal but you can’t expect synergy when you have 5-star talent QBs and RBs and :-Star.

Our recruiting of SEC ready offensive linemen has been deficient. It has not derailed our running game and our passing game has been adequate, but on keep plays our OL wilted last year.

That could be a conditioning issue or lack of development but it is easily correctible.

 

If it’s easily correctable, then we should see a big turnaround in Year 3. And everyone will be satisfied.

 

KAHNEN DANIELS = the truth!!!!

 

We are at the point of the conversation where Napier is guaranteed success because…

Jim Harbaugh improved Stanford from 1 win to 4 wins to 5 wins after 2 years…

Therefore Napier is able to take a team to the Super Bowl and a team with infinitely more resources than Stanford to a NC

1. Harbaughs first two years at Stanford were good, not bad. Thinking they were bad ignores what happened pre Harbaugh and the fact that Stanford is a bad program. They are Vandy. Florida is not Vandy.

2. Even if you thought Harbaugh was bad after 2 years and Stanford = Florida…it’s not relevant. Harbaugh didn’t win a title at Stanford

3. Even if you ignore all that it just increases your sample size of 1 of coaches with bad two year starts (which JH did not) that ultimately turned it around. There are 100+ coaches that never turned it around after 2 bad years…how many had? A few?

 

I can’t think of a single time where a large buy out ended up saving a coach.

Terms like hot seats are stupid.

The fact is if Napier has a bad 3rd year he’s gone. If he has an ok year it’s a coin flip. If he has a good year then he sticks.

Norvell was in the same boat. He had a good third year and stuck around. If he had a bad third year he would have been fired.

Nobody is saying Napier shouldn’t get a third year. He is getting it.

If the argument is that Napier can win 2 games and get a 4th year…well I think that’s false. The evidence at UF and at other major programs is why I think it’s false. How many coaches at MAJOR P5 schools had 3 straight losing seasons and survived? Almost none. How many started with three straight and got a fourth? Maybe zero…? Depends how you define Nebraska and Frost….and he ended up getting fired.

But ideally he kicks ass and it’s just an academic discussion. We are all hoping he does well and sticks for another decade.

 

It's sad that no one takes strength of schedule into account. He could easily have a 9-win team if his schedule wasn't so brutal, and no, we rarely have a schedule that tough, at least based on their 2023 record.

 

Under 500 for the year implies he’s 2+ games under 500 versus teams with a pulse. In year 3 he should at least be splitting vs peer teams.

 

I am absolutely taking it into account and saying he needs to win seven games after dropping two losing seasons in a row. I’m not saying that’s easy, but he burnt a lot of grace dropping easy ones like Vandy and Arkansas over the past two years. He has to spend the whole offseason getting the team to hate Miami with a passion and come out swinging. If the team shows up sloppy, undisciplined, and unprepared, like it did against Utah last year, then this thing will be over just as it’s starting.

 

Define having a pulse. Allow me. Every team that finished 8-5, 7-6, or 6-7. Teams better than that are not near peer.

2002: 3-2
2023: 0-3

Record against better teams than Florida:

2022: 1-5
2023: 1-4

Number of such teams in 2024 (based simply on last year's numbers):

Near peer: Miami, Miss State, Texas A&M, UCF, Kentucky
Better teams: Tennessee, Georgia, Texas, Ole Miss, LSU, FSU
Worse teams: Samford

So based on this very rough prediction:

Miami: Tossup
Samford: Win
Texas A&M: Tossup
@ Miss St: Tossup
UCF: Tossup
@Tennessee: Loss
Kentucky: Tossup
Georgia: Loss
@Texas: Loss
LSU: Loss
Ole Miss: Loss
@FSU: Loss

One sure win
Split the tossups: 2-3 or 3-2
Losses: 6

End of season: 3-8 or 4-7

Win all the tossups: 6-6

In order to win 7 games, we would have to win the Samford game, all five tossups and one upset to a better team.

Now compare this team to our 2019 schedule if we were a 5-7 team the previous two years:

Worse teams: 3 (UT-Martin, Towson, Vandy)
Near Peer: 6 (Miami, Kentucky, Tennessee, USCe, Mizzou, FSU)
Better teams: 3 (Auburn, LSU and Georgia)

3 wins
3 wins against tossups
3 losses against better teams.

At worse, we go 6-6. Sweep the tossups and we go 9-3.

With the same quality team.

Contrary to universal Gator belief, not all Florida schedules are gauntlets. In 2024, we will enter a severe gauntlet.

 

Part of the problem is that your starting point is that we are that bad in year 3. In year 3 we better be competitive

In Y3 this is pretty reasonable as a baseline:

Definite win (1-0):

Stamford


Should win but let’s say we drop 1 (3-1)

UCF
Miss St
Kentucky

in Y3 need to split these, some harder than others (6-4):

FSU
Miami
TAMU
Tenn
LSU
Ole Miss

Should lose both, but need to win 1 if you underperform elsewhere (6-6):

Texas
UGA

If in Y3 we are that bad that we cannot do that, then he’s not the answer. We should be able to split the games between ranked 5 to 35 teams. We should win most games from 35 to 60 ranked. And we should win below 60. This is my standard every single year. It doesn’t change in 2024, it just means we have more losses. 6-6 means we are a borderline top 25 team which is where we need to be in Y3.

It’s Y3. If we aren’t a borderline top 25 team (by performance, forget record) then that’s a MAJOR problem.

But if you are ok with being on par with MSU, UK and UCF and behind the rest in YEAR 3…then your standards are too low. It doesn’t take that long to be a borderline T25 team. Yes my expectations for an okay year would lead to more wins in 2019

 

If we are as bad of a team as we were the past two seasons, then, yes, your assessment is spot on. But if this big improvement is coming that is going to prove Napier is not out of his element, then I can see six or seven wins.

 

Everybody is speculating on our opinions about the first 2 seasons under Napier. ALL of us are hoping for a big success story in 2024. Some look at all the possibilities and positives, others see the downsides and negatives. None of us knows how it's going to play out, but we ALL wish for the best. Goooo Gators.

 

I think what you've defined is a merely survivable year and even then a Bowl showing after a 6-6 season like happened against Oregon St. might be the coup de grace. There is one thing I know, if we get embarrassed by UM on our home field, it will be a early hole that may be impossible to dig out of.

Lets hope we can survive 2024 and maybe go out with a bang by beating FSU, winning a Bowl game, and signing a Top Ten recruiting class that doesn't sink the last month of the year. Then we could really begin to go into 2025 on an upward note of positivity.

 

Largely agree, except:

1. The 2024 Gators isn't a buildup from the 2022 and 2023 Gators. The Portal hurt us and whomever we get is a crapshoot.

2. The other teams also strive to improve.

Look at the three year record of us versus our opponents:

Georgia: 42-2
Ole Miss: 29-10
FSU: 28-11
Tenn: 27-12
LSU: 26-14
Texas: 25-14
Kentucky: 24-15
UCF: 24-16
Miss St: 21-17
TA&M: 20-17
Miami: 19-18
Florida: 17-21

As Parcells said, "You are what your record SAYS you are."

If we had a weaker schedule, as I posted before, we could probably win as many as nine games. Ron Zook did it (on the field) with a roster of freshmen and sophomores, a true freshman QB and perhaps the toughest schedule we ever had. But he also built up a strong foundation. Much of what Billy built frittered away in The Portal, which is the great variable that keeps us from making high expectations...

 

Well then, tragically, I think Billy's 2024 season may be his last at Florida. He could have a 9-win team with a normal/easy schedule but still finish 5-7 -- or worse. I want Billy to succeed here, but whoever made our schedule boned Billy, the players and us...

 

Wow, what a horrific set of stats. Who would've ever thought that any UF 3 year record would be worse than the likes of MSU, UCF, and Kentucky....SMH . I guess we really are in the learning to crawl stage. Its time to turn that around immediately....

 

5-7 means we lose more games than we win vs reasonable teams. Most of those reasonable teams should not be a better program than Florida.

5-7 means we are a well below average SEC and P5 team. Thats not good enough in Y3. Your point that it could be 9-3 with an easy schedule is not relevant. The team would still be below average and that’s not good enough.

But it can does to your assessment assumes Florida remains a bad team. If Florida remains that, then Billy is gone.

 

Yeah I’m describing what should be the minimum requirements. It’s still behind schedule. Y3 we should be average and Y4 we should be competing for the conference. But to merely survive Billy can be a year behind schedule.

But below average in the league in Y3? Thats just not acceptable