Official Prediction Thread: Who's Going To Be the Next POTUS?

Kamala. I'm riding with Alan Lichtman's keys to the White House. She will, at most, lose four of the six keys she would need to lose for Trump to win the election. He correctly predicted Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020, as well as every President going back to Reagan except the Bush-Gore contest, which Gore won the popular vote but lost the electoral college in the hanging chad debacle. He will probably be coming out soon with his prediction, and it will most likely be Kamala.

 

Is that so?
National : President: general election : 2024 Polls

 

I just voted for Trump, like I will this fall for the third time. While tired, exhausted actually, with his narcissism and horrible manner of speaking as he is certainly no great orator, I'm far more aligned with his policy views than I am with hardly anything coming from the left. We're not electing a Sunday School teacher, we're electing a President to make impactful decisions. It's policy over personality for me.

Go Gators! (at least we can all agree on that)

 

I would predict Harris based on what is happening today. I am curious if the RFK, jr. supporters would actually fall in line and vote for Trump. I kind of doubt it, but we will see. If they do, that 5% makes for a much tighter race. A thousand things could still happen between now and November, but if I had to predict today, my guess is Trump will show his ass during the debates by being undisciplined as usual, causing the few undecided to hold their nose and vote against him.

 

His keys would have definitely anticipated a Biden victory. He thought the Democrats were stupid for dumping Biden because they would lose the incumbency key and the contest key. But the Democrats, if you believe Lichtman, were smart to not have a contest, so they kept that key. The other key that could have fallen was the 3rd party key, but that is no longer an issue, so they keep that key. Not much chance Kamala loses based on his keys at this point, unless something crazy happens.

 

Kamala Harris does not share Hillary Clinton's sneering distain for single men. (The shift in unmarried men between 2012 and 2016 explains the national popular vote shift 1.5-2 times over.) She also isn't ignoring the "blue wall" of Wisconsin/Michigan/Pennsylvania.

She'll likely win. I -- a single, childfree, 42-year-old man who has voted Bush-Bush-McCain-Romney-Johnson-Biden -- looks forward to voting for her. I think she's a "problem solver" -- someone who will make our country better rather than shouting values at those who don't share them or prattling on about feelings. Honestly, the first time I'm voting FOR someone and not AGAINST the opponent.

 

I don’t make predictions but as a Harris supporter I am worried about her laugh and Trump’s MLK crowd sizes. Also Trump’s magic wand to make all our problems disappear in one day is a very compelling policy. I am just glad he didn’t wave it last time he was in office or he would be going for his 3rd term right now.

 

We have never seen a scenariowhere someone has attained anomination without receiving asingle vote.


If you mean in recent history then yeah. But primaries didn’t become a thing until after WW2.

A brief history of presidential primaries | Constitution Center

 

Okay, here goes. My prediction for next POTUS will be a candidate who’s owned by Israel and the military-industrial complex and who talks the talk on righting the wrongs of the last four years. I know, I’m crazy.

 

The difference between 2024 and both 2016 and 2020 is that Trump was able to outperform the polls as the result of enthusiasm by his supporters compared with Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden. While hardcore supporters of the deranged defeated former president will undoubtedly turnout to vote for the their Dear Leader at least so far potential Democratic voters appear to be much more enthusiastic than Trump leaning undecideds. While the Trump campaign has a smaller ground game than it did in 2016 and 2020 the Democrats have a much stronger ground game than they did in 2020 and 2016. If you want to make a comparison with previous presidential campaigns 2008 is much more indicative of the depth of support for the Democratic candidate than are either 2016 or 2020.

 

You must not watch him much. Every election someone says something like "we haven't send this before, the keys won't work" but then they do anyway.

 

71% Harris on site that is 85% lefties.

 

Although Trump fortunately lost in 2020 he still performed better than what the polls were predicting. That's probably attributable to enthusiasm on the part of his supporters although I would agree that Biden's supporters including myself enthusiastically voted to prevent a second term by Trump.

 

I would add the polls take in 2008 during roughly the same period had Obama ahead by a similar small margin. Based on enthusiasm for the Democratic candidate 2008 bears much more similarity to 2024 than do either 2020 or 2016.
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2008 General Election: McCain vs. Obama | RealClearPolling