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  1. Hi there... Can you please quickly check to make sure your email address is up to date here? Just in case we need to reach out to you or you lose your password. Muchero thanks!

No more interviews until after the debate?

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by okeechobee, Sep 4, 2024.

  1. GatorRade

    GatorRade Rad Scientist

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    Maybe. However, we’ve seen the fall of an awful lot of norms lately. Eg Voters did not punish Trump when he refused to release his tax returns, or properly divest his business holdings. And when it was suggested that Trump wouldn’t debate Kamala, right leaning posters here defended the approach.

    Similarly, there are a great body of hardcore dems and never Trumpers that would vote for the D candidate over Trump regardless of whether they have a single interview in their lives. And I understand this. I mean, if Trump stopped giving interviews, would you change your vote to Harris?
     
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  2. okeechobee

    okeechobee GC Hall of Fame

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    LOL, I'm sorry, but nobody cares about a candidate's tax returns except for the true haters and the true haters aren't going to be persuaded to vote for the other party simply because that candidate released his or her tax return. Unfortunately, your logic is pretty flawed. OTOH, independents and undecideds will certainly take notice if one candidate is doing everything she can to avoid interviews, town halls and press conferences. 2020 was somewhat an anomaly, only due to Covid being a plausible excuse. Kamala doesn't have that to hide behind this year. Nobody is arguing interviews or lack thereof will persuade hardcore supporters of either candidate. It's that middle 20% of the voter base which could view it as sketchy and fear-based, enough so to change a couple hundred thousand voters' minds (likely more)... which as we have seen is a very large number in terms of electoral college calculations.
     
  3. mikemcd810

    mikemcd810 Premium Member

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    Listen, voters only care about the things that I think are important about a candidate. Any things that are bad about my candidate they don't care about, but the smallest thing about your candidate? Hooboy - that's really going to matter with independents and undecideds.
     
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  4. uftaipan

    uftaipan GC Hall of Fame

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    I agree with this. She is objectively winning this race at the moment (more accurately, Trump is losing it). When you're ahead in football, do you take risky shots down field or do you run clock? In my opinion, she is not a very good public speaker even when she is on script. Being off script magnifies her weakness quite a bit. If I was on her campaign team, I would advise she say as little as possible and let Trump beat himself with his own mouth. I expect the debate to be a very vanilla affair where she again says as little as she needs to and lets Trump hang himself with ad hominem attacks and such.
     
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  5. okeechobee

    okeechobee GC Hall of Fame

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    On which planet is she winning? She'd have to win the popular vote by probably at least 3% to win the electoral college. Then you have to factor in the inevitable anti-Trump polling bias which has been good for 2 to 3 points off his actuals the past two elections. She'd need to be averaging a +5% lead in polling nationally just to be tied with him in reality. Hence why several accomplished prognosticators have her odds of winning currently beneath Trump's, despite several national polls giving her a 2% or 3% edge.
     
  6. okeechobee

    okeechobee GC Hall of Fame

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  7. uftaipan

    uftaipan GC Hall of Fame

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    As you say. Trump is winning. So is Russia. So much winning. They're both getting tired of winning. But it sounds like you have nothing to worry about then. No need to try goading her into giving more interviews or participating in any more debates. After all, you're winning. Hugely.
     
  8. okeechobee

    okeechobee GC Hall of Fame

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    What does Russia have to do with it? As for Kamala, I would love for her to do zero more interviews. A Trump landslide would be very satisfying to me. Do you have any actual data to back your position? Are you seeing something in Kamala's battleground state numbers that have been in decline for two weeks now that leads you to believe she's "objectively winning" or is that all based on the idea that you consider her refusing interviews as a sign she's ahead? I assume you're voting for her? Get ready for Jake Sullivan's transgender cousin taking over as national security advisor if she wins. I'm sure you're giddy about that outlook.
     
  9. uftaipan

    uftaipan GC Hall of Fame

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    No, my outlook is pretty poor no matter who wins. You’ve got me dead to rights there. I’ve got clowns to the left of me who don’t understand how to resist Russia, China, and Iran. And I’ve got jokers to the right who don’t understand why we need to. And here I am stuck in the middle …
     
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  10. okeechobee

    okeechobee GC Hall of Fame

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    Can't win 'em all...
     
  11. GatorRade

    GatorRade Rad Scientist

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    If nobody cared about tax returns, why did that norm arise and get maintained for decades?

    If there is a 20% middle that can be influenced, it would seem to me that Trump’s previous actions would have already turned many of them off.
     
  12. VAg8r1

    VAg8r1 GC Hall of Fame

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  13. gatordavisl

    gatordavisl VIP Member

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    I've heard this take about Kamala not being a good speaker quite a bit lately. Was she somehow bad at the DNC or in any of the recent interviews, including Jimmy Kimmel? I don't know definitively, but the prepped speeches I've heard recently were pretty good.
    My pipe dream, though, would be a Buttigieg vs. Trump (or Vance or virtually anybody else) debate. Pete is as solid as there is at debate imo. He would dismantle Trump and embarrass Vance (not literally, as Vance is probably too stupid to feel embarrassment).
     
  14. gatordavisl

    gatordavisl VIP Member

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    [​IMG]
     
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  15. okeechobee

    okeechobee GC Hall of Fame

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    Yes, the strategy of hiding from the media seems to be working quite nicely for Kamala. Nate Silver has Trump sweeping every battleground state...

     
  16. rivergator

    rivergator Too Hot Mod Moderator VIP Member

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    Please put that on the poll thread. Thanks
     
  17. l_boy

    l_boy 5500

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    It’s a snapshot in time and for all intents and purposes it’s a tossup. The outcome will probably be shaped by events that haven’t happened yet.
     
  18. okeechobee

    okeechobee GC Hall of Fame

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    She’s finished, dude. That is not going to win a presidency. She is horrible.
     
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  19. gator95

    gator95 GC Hall of Fame

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    Anyone saying Harris is a good speaker would then have to answer why Harris hasn't sat down for any 1 on 1 interviews? IF her camp thinks she's a good speaker then they should have her out on the networks because according to Silver she is behind right now.
     
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