Netanyahu tells Israel ‘We are at war’ after Hamas launches an unprecedented attack, killing at leas

There was some video Saturday that suggested otherwise, although now I'm not sure it was valid. To the extent it was, it may be because the response was rapid before integrated suppression was in place. But either way, I would not assume what capabilities they do and do not have right now

 

I haven't seen the movie and do not plan on paying to do so considering the reviews that it has received most of which are similar to the one in the link although I will probably watch it when it becomes available on one of the streaming services. My comments regarding Meir's decision on the Yom Kippur war were based her autobiography which I read back in 1974 (I know I'm dating myself). By the way the book is available from Amazon as well as from some online econd hand book sellers.

 

I have not seen any of this confirmed from more reliable sources, so I am starting to doubt. But this is what I had in mind

 

But just as the U.S. government has a plan to hide away, in bunkers or wherever, in the case of nuclear war, the Hamas government in Gaza could have a plan to hide away (in tunnels or wherever) from Israeli bombing, and still "be there." So the question is, does Israel know where "there" is. It may have to invade (which of course it will) to find out.

 

Yes he was. Most if the IDF is.

Most may not realize, but the IDF is perhaps most aware of these issues. They will perform professionally and capably, and they will certainly want revenge on the savage perpetrators of the atrocities. But they know all the other facts very well and what a difficult mission it has given them to protect the nation.

 

Your post may not go over well.

Of course I am no fan of B.N., Trump or any other wanna be Western Power dictators.

But Hamas has crossed a line they cannot withdraw from. I would not be surprised at all to see escalation, especially between Israel and Iran.

Pure conjecture on my part but I see Putin involved in this murder spree.

Why? To distract from his immense foreign policy blunder in Ukraine.

 

Isolating Iran hasn’t worked, dealing with Iran hasn’t worked. That’s not on any political party, that’s on Iran. Trying to blame Hamas attack on Biden getting some prisoners home is partisan bullshit.

You’ll see the Democratic Party support Israel.. like always. You’ll see the Democratic Party support Ukraine to oppose Putin.. like always. What you wont see is a Putin loving appeasement faction appearing anywhere but within the loud minority of the crazy right wing.

 

Well, neither Hamas or Hezbollah have radar. We know that. I would not be surprised to learn Israel is using helicopters in the north, but I am surprised to learn they are using them for close support in Gaza. The urban environment has too many advantages for the defender, and Israel has many of the helicopter-launched stand-off weapons that we do, allowing them to fire from a safe distance. But, yes, as you suggest the key to protecting your rotary wing is with combined-arms suppression (artillery, small arms) while they are making their attack runs.

 

Years ago, they were dug in underneath the children's wing of a hospital which you would have to take out to get to them, and even then you couldn't be sure you got them. I suspect they are no surrounded by hostage shields as well.

You know much more than I, but I am still a little bit scared about presuming the extent of their capabilities. I would not have thought they were capable of a lot that they have already demonstrated they are

 

My friend said that as well, but that just does not feel correct to me. Whatever other state supporters were with this, I have a hard time believing that anyone else sign off on the sheer brutality of some things we have read about that I will repeat. Not because they are nice people. Russian troops have done the same. But because they have to know they don't want to be associated with that in this context. Doesn't mean they didn't support the offensive without knowing about that particular part of the plan

 

It’s only partisan if you criticize their team for doing it while excusing your team. The exchange was a bad move. I said it then, and I would have said it if the other party had done it. The Iranian regime does not lack the will to conquer the Middle East and wipe away the Jewish state. What it lacks is the means. You just don’t give people like that more means. It is very important we learn from this.

 

Then why not declare war and take ALL their money? Why is that one transaction you are focused on when we could take any amount of their money we want? Because it’s partisan. Absolutely silly.

 

Respectfully disagree

 

I’m not suggesting anything with respect to the morals of Hamas or the culpability of anyone else in the region, was just noting that it’s not really possible for effectively the entire leadership, government, police, and administrative staff of a relatively large quasi-city-state to just up and disappear for any meaningful amount of time.

 

Because it was the latest one. I think you know this.

 

If you mean declare war on Iran, that will certainly push the World to war. Moreover, Iran as a country has many natural borders, a large army, and would be rather difficult to defeat militarily, particularly swiftly.

 

Of course. That's the deal in war. The allies leveled almost every axis city to the ground via bombing and threw in a couple of nukes for good measure.

The hotheads at Hamas could care less about their own citizens. They should have harbored no illusions payback would be hard and severe.

 

Like I said, a certain mentality is drawn to final confrontations, Likud and Hamas are two peas in a pod in that respect. From the Palestinian POV, if you see US pushing normalizing Saudi/Israeli relations, Netanyahu eradicating democratic elements of the Israeli state, the formalization of apartheid as Israel become a more distinctinly nationalistic Jewish state, the turning of a blind eye to new settlements, Israel assassinating or imprisoning more moderate Palestinian voices, you probably are feeling more nihilistic and more despairing when it comes to non-violent alternatives.

 

Great piece by Fred Kaplan. First my point of disagreement with someone I usually agree with completely:

In recent weeks, Washington and Tehran have held exploratory talks on various issues, including a possible reopening of the Iran nuclear deal. Iran freed five American prisoners in exchange for the release of $6 billion in Iranian assets. Unless Tehran actively clamps down on Hamas and Hezbollah, these glimmerings of renewed diplomacy will be snuffed out entirely.

My speculation, which will likely be shown to be at least partly wrong, is that the Supreme Council would not be onboard with this, in large part because they want to work some issue specific deals. But the IRGC would LOVE to kill all that. And they often act independent of the council. So unclear if "Tehran" can decide to shut down Hamas with the IRGC on board, which in any event may not be so easily controlled (Hamas that is).

It could be that Hamas timed the attack—coinciding with the 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur War, which began with another multipronged surprise attack on Israel—to disrupt these talks. The Saudis have demanded that, as part of any deal, Israel reopen talks with the Palestinians toward a two-state solution. The attack now makes this impossible: As long as Hamas is still in power, Israel cannot hold talks, much less sign a treaty, with the Palestinians. And as long as Israel is attacking Palestinian enclaves, which Hamas’ leaders knew it would do in response to their attack, the Saudis can’t sign a deal with Israel.

Obvious but underappreciated that killing the SA normalization was one of the primary goals of the offensive, which I suspect was easier in implementation than anticipated.

Biden will now face pressures to supply allies with arms on three fronts: Ukraine, against Russia; Taiwan, against possible Chinese aggression; and now, once again Israel, against its enemies. If Hezbollah starts firing missiles from southern Lebanon, Israel will be in urgent need of air-defense weapons—forcing Biden to divert some of those weapons from the pipeline to Ukraine, which desperately needs them as well.

Yep. It will be a challenge. But a challenge we are not free to ignore.

In the longer run, Biden must be heaving a heavy sigh. Like a few presidents before him, Biden has hoped to pivot away from the ancient squabbles of the Middle East. For a moment, it looked like it was safe to do so: the U.S. was no longer dependent on the region’s oil; Israel had struck deals with its once-hostile neighbors; the Palestinian problem seemed to have faded away—tensions had calmed, more than 15,000 Gaza residents had been given work permits to move in and out of Israel every day. Now the region’s monstrous dynamics were pulling him back in again.

Yep. The pivot to Asia still seems out of reach 13 years later.

It’s a shame that the world is spinning out of control, that global power is so dispersed, and that the major powers are so racked in tension and conflict. It would be nice if Washington and some other big capital (Moscow or Beijing, for instance) could meet in some backroom and connive to pressure their respective allies to stop fighting. But though it’s possible neither Putin nor Chinese President Xi Jinping wants war in the Middle East, both would be happy to see Biden distracted—and retracting resources—from Ukraine, Taiwan, and the South China Sea. So they’re not eager to push for peace in Israel.

I think this correctly frame the incentive structure for Russia and China and why they may not mind that this is happening, even if it wasn't desired before hand, which is still uncertain in Russia's case, though I suspect that is the case. But like all of human history, current conflagrations that seem in your favor can spin out of control and burn areas you want to remain untouched, so China especially takes a hands off stance with some risk

 

Important feed - four tweets he did not know how to thread. Note that he would likely have real sources - look at his recent book







https://twitter.com/jeremybob1