Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia

Statistically, it's a little better than a coin flip that an 81-year-old man makes it to 86. The voters will have to like the vice presidential candidate as well.

 

The VP choice has never, ever mattered before.

 

Have we elected a president who will be 86 while he's serving his term? The answer is no, because Biden is already the oldest president we've ever had..

 

I'd say that it's probably more important if they don't like the Republican candidate. Voters typically vote for party over person. Even if someone isn't enamored with the VP, they would still take them over the other party's candidate. That goes for both sides.

 

And the two likely candidates have never been this old before, it will matter more now than ever before.

I’m just hoping something happens to BOTH of them before the election so neither can be voted for.

 

I wouldn't get too cocky at this point. It's early. The media will intensify attacks on Trump, even it he manages to dodge convictions on the criminal charges he faces. The media hates Donald and has plenty of ammunition which it used successfully in 2020 and 2022. Once that onslaught begins, which I'd predict will probably begin in April or May, that's when these polls will be more meaningful. Can Trump hold those margins among likely voters? Part of the democratic strategy is to rile up its base and increase the number of likely voting democrats and independents who can't see straight when you meantion Donald Trump.

 

I think one thing is that the Biden campaign hasn’t really campaigned yet and they have a 250 million dollar war chest to unload. I’m not sure who will win, I think it’ll be very very close if they both live that long lol. And with this crazy world right now who knows what events conspire to help or hurt a candidate.

 

this will be the biggest shit show election in my lifetime.
I recently changed from democrat to independent, will probably just vote a “write in” candidate this go-around.

 

I see what you did there. “Jack Smith’s jury”, not “the jury”. Trying to bake in an excuse that a judgement against Trump is illegitimate. I’m no lawyer, but I’m pretty sure the jury doesn’t belong to the prosecution or the defense.

 

Speaking of Wisconsin.
Fox News Poll: Biden and Trump tie in Wisconsin head-to-head matchup
Also keep in mind that with the exception of Ron Johnson who was reelected to the Senate by a margin of less than one percent in 2022 (noting that he was favored by an average of over three percent according to the polls), Republicans haven't won a statewide election in Wisconsin in many years.

 

And she ignored MI, PA and WI after winning the primaries there. That lost her the election.

 

Yep, she looked at the election as a mere formality on the way to her swearing in ceremony.

 

Polls in February never mean a lot, but I would sure rather be leading then trailing. I agree the VP choice for Trump will have more impact than in previous elections. It's hard to imagine that KH, and her popularity, is not helping the fall in polls for Biden simply because of his age. It's more possible for the first time ever, both VP's may have to assume the role.

 

True on all counts.

 

You mean it won't be Mike Pence?

 

Some double bad news for Trump in the Grand Canyon state. First, the Arizona Republican Party is broke, and didn't pay rent for months, having to pay several months of back rent in January. Meanwhile, D Senatorial Candidate Ruben Gallego has raised more than both his R competitors combined, including Kari Lake, the likely R Senatorial Candidate.

Second, the backers of an abortion ballot initiative in Arizona has claimed they already have more than 500,000 signatures, 100,000 more needed to get it on the November ballot. They are still collecting signatures, and hope to have around 750,000 when all is said and done, with the minimum needed being around 390,000. Want to leave no doubt.

Money doesn't always win elections. But lack of money can be a serious problem. And the abortion initiative on the ballot will likely drive more people to the polls who are likely Biden supporters.

 

John Fetternan write-in!!!!!!