2024 Pomeroy College Basketball Ratings At the moment, Gators are #36, up from the 41-43 range a week ago. Next opponent, Pitt, is #39, possible opponent Baylor is #10. Michigan is #37. Miami is #33. Of course, it's way too early in the season to read too much into any ranking system.
Pomeroy spent the first third of CFB season with some really weird results. So...agreed on your last point. KenPom has us with the #252 schedule so far...which is...weird.
It’s takes several games before the different teams become connected, as Sagarin calls it. Much of the early ratings is based on the previous season and modeled changes to teams since then. Later on, this part will be overwhelmed by the actual results of the season, resulting in a more valid model. Curiously, KenPom has previously noted that almost the opposite is true of the human polls. Historically, the preseason AP poll has been a better predictor of the postseason results than the final AP poll. He argues this happens because the pollsters put in a lot of work on the their season polls and then subsequently adopt an overly simple adjustment procedure of moving teams down that lose and leaving other teams where they are.
That's a good point about AP and human polls. The really good sportswriters know the subject and can look at the youth, makeup, and experience of teams and make a prediction about which teams will improve the most over the course of a season. I suppose a really smart guy could program computer polls to make similar predictions. There are a lot of teams out there that peak early in the season, and others that just keep getting better and peak in March.
Here’s a math question for you. If you play 4 teams who are ranked 248, 249, 250 and 251, respectively, do you think that your strength of schedule has to be better than 252?
My engineering degree from UF is a stain on the university's reputation. My point: UVA and FSU are far enough into the top quarter of the 362 schools to tilt us higher than 252. UVA is now ranked #23. FSU is #84 in KenPom. I think my flaw is: the schedule strength is dominated by bottom-feeders getting paid for the beating. I think UGA is the only P5 team in the top 50 SoS (and they are 44.) Amongst P5 schools, I bet our schedule is at least top third.
Agree, and I hope we win some of them because that will improve our NET ranking, which is what the selection committee primarily uses.
By the way, Virginia lost to Wisconsin 65-41 tonight. Plus, the big freshman for Virginia who badly outplayed our big guys went scoreless.
Precisely. He was super active and made a couple of shots early, but he didn't defend well and ended up with a bunch of trips to the stripe. He is pretty solid, though.
