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Kamala's housing plan

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by okeechobee, Aug 16, 2024.

  1. okeechobee

    okeechobee GC Hall of Fame

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    I felt like this deserved its own thread, as it probably has larger ramifications overall than does her plan for price controls on food and groceries. I'm open to all sides on this, but my initial thought is that giving first-time homebuyers $25,000 in down payment assistance will push up the cost of housing. That is typically what happens when government makes large subsidies towards a product.

    There is talk of offering tax incentives to home builders, but home builders aren't holding back due to the raw cost of building a home. They are holding back due to uncertainty about the future and regulations. In any case, a tax incentive would take a while to translate to more building permits and housing starts. I think the easiest way to address the housing shortage is to couple deregulation with tax incentives.

    Supply and demand. The supply side needs to be fixed. Demand doesn't need a $25,000 credit. Demand needs lower housing costs and lower interest rates to be able to afford the monthly payment. Down payment is only a small piece of the puzzle. Happy to discuss further and would like to get all thoughts across the spectrum.

    Kamala Harris starts to lay out her economic agenda

    Harris will propose a federal ban on price gouging of food and groceries and offer up ways to lower the costs of prescription drugs. And in a preview of her agenda, Harris' campaign shared new details Thursday evening on her plans to bring down housing costs.

    The plan includes up to $25,000 in down payment assistance for first-time homebuyers. That's more than the $10,000 tax credit for first-time purchasers the Biden administration previously laid out. Her campaign projects the initiative will help more than 4 million first-time buyers purchase homes.

    Harris will also seek to provide homebuilders a tax incentive to construct and sell starter homes and establish a $40 billion fund to help local governments with address housing shortages.
     
    Last edited: Aug 16, 2024
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  2. slayerxing

    slayerxing GC Hall of Fame

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    As a first time home buyer back during the great recession, there was an $8000 credit at the time from the government that was super helpful for us.
    Housing prices were pretty low at that point, but money was tight too so every little bit helped.
    I know plenty of young people that the only thing preventing them from getting a house is lack of cash for a down payment. They are already paying exorbitant amounts for rent - so having some help to start building some equity would really help.
    I still think they need to address the supply side by getting companies out of the housing market. Too many companies are buying homes for rentals - and that is hurting supply just as much as a lack of building. It boggles my mind that people aren't addressing that part.
     
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  3. wgbgator

    wgbgator Premium Member

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    This policy is how you know Kamala isnt a socialist! The only way to fix supply is to build more housing. Of course that's the one thing that will also lower existing homeowner's property value is by creating the necessary supply to satisfy demand. Our obsession with property value prevents acting accordingly. At best we try to throw money at developers, but they arent building low cost housing, they are chasing big dollars and not going to saturate supply. So we get the typical liberal policies of subsidies and tax breaks. Who's going to go all in on the government creating massive housing supply? Or god forbid, public housing projects?
     
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  4. g8trjax

    g8trjax GC Hall of Fame

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    LOL, here comes the free shit.
     
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  5. gator95

    gator95 GC Hall of Fame

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    Increasing the Demand for housing isn't the way to lower the price of housing.
     
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  6. mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    You think that people are choosing outside options to housing? Forcing people into rental markets doesn't lower housing prices.
     
  7. okeechobee

    okeechobee GC Hall of Fame

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    There are already a plethora of down-payment assistance programs, especially in larger urban areas. USDA offers 100% financing for most areas outside major metropolitan cities. And if it's like anything else provided by the Federal government, I'm guessing execution of said $25,000 credit will take months, which will make it extremely difficult for the lender and the first-time homebuyer alike.
     
  8. gator95

    gator95 GC Hall of Fame

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  9. wgbgator

    wgbgator Premium Member

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    It definitely raises rental prices! I suppose if we want even more homelessness, we could do that. Perhaps now that the courts say to can sic the cops on encampments and unhoused on public property without worry, out of sight out of mind will suffice for many.
     
  10. g8trjax

    g8trjax GC Hall of Fame

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    Damn greedy builders gouging hard working people, time for some housing price controls.
     
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  11. mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    It only increases the demand for housing if there are people choosing not to be housed at all because of the expense. So is your argument that there are enough of those people that we will see them shift the demand curve upward?
     
  12. mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    And raising rental prices...increases home prices as somebody can now make more money with that house.
     
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  13. gator95

    gator95 GC Hall of Fame

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    It's always fun when you won't answer a simple question. I'll ask one more time. Do you think giving people 25k will increase housing prices?
     
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  14. mdgator05

    mdgator05 Premium Member

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    I did, you just don't understand. I'll try to get you to understand again.

    No, probably not. As it stands, those people will rent, which pushes the price of housing higher, as people buy housing to collect a greater amount of rental income. Switching some people from renters to buyers will lower demand for rental units, making housing a less attractive investment for people seeking to collect rents, serving to push demand down and counteracting any potential increase from more people trying to buy.
     
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  15. slayerxing

    slayerxing GC Hall of Fame

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    Our first time homebuyer credit was super easy in 2008
     
  16. slayerxing

    slayerxing GC Hall of Fame

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    The price of housing has gone so high because demand is high and supply is low. Supply is low because 34% of single family homes are owned by investors - meaning they bought the house as an investment and are now renting it out. What's difficult is that only about 5% or so are big companies, the rest are smaller operations or single families. Maybe just one family buying a few homes to make some money. My father in law owns like 20 and retired and is living off the money he makes off renters just as an example.

    Building new homes on its own is not enough to fix this problem, because at their current price point they will just be purchased by more investors. You have to find a way to get first-time homeowners to break into this market, so that involves either regulating investors who own homes to make that less profitable so you have less people looking to buy properties as landlords - which should drop prices, or you can give first time homebuyers a leg up so that they can actually just buy a house. The more people that get in houses, the less people need to rent, which should lower rental prices, which should move people out of buying homes as a way to make money, which should lower costs for other homebuyers.

    Just IMO.
     
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  17. citygator

    citygator VIP Member

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    I’d be a fan if it was in conjunction with house building initiatives. Home ownership is most people’s wealth building so access is important. But this will push up demand and prices. As a homeowner I’m not complaining though.
     
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  18. tilly

    tilly Superhero Mod. Fast witted. Bulletproof posts. Moderator VIP Member

    The government gives my organization a lot of money at the local and federal level to build low income housing. There are rules in place for how that all works to guarantee it is affordable...And that works.

    I wonder if the better option is to broaden that and thus make houses cost less. (like the ones we build) or if its better to give it as a down payment?

    Again, like other things, if you do this, there needs to be a cap.

    A lawyer who has rented in Manhattan for 15 years and decides to buy a house in the burbs, doesn't need the 25k.

    I think subsidized low cost construction makes more sense. You then put limits in flipping. Here at Habitat if a buyer wants to flip it, they have to seel it back yo us for a minimum profit for the first several (7, I think?) years. This keeps investors from trying to cheat the system and makes the houses truly affordable.
     
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  19. okeechobee

    okeechobee GC Hall of Fame

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    I'd be on board for something like this is if was pointed at foreign investors. Say a tariff, of sorts, if you're a foreign investor buying homes in the U.S. I don't think U.S. based investors should be hurt. Also, if an investor is financing, they're already paying a higher interest rate. Cash purchases negate that, but encourage American investment. Dissuade international speculation.
     
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  20. okeechobee

    okeechobee GC Hall of Fame

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    Overall, I believe the government needs to deregulate builders. If nothing else, you'd have some builders take a gander at picking up the slack in home building. As it stands now, there are too many regulatory hurdles for builders to make it worth risking the capital it would require.