July 4th was the hottest day ever

Yeah, in the Mid-Atlantic, this is the first week of real winter coming up. It has been raining instead of snowing here. This week is the first time it will switch to snow.

 

We're fine (though for other reasons we'll likely move once kids graduate), but there is a fair amount of stuff that's gonna have some challenges. Beach communities like Old Orchard or Higgins are getting destroyed on the reg...

 

Reminder that it is GLOBAL warming

 

Yikes. I hope you and the fam are safe and that your home is in good shape.

 

We're high and dry. Thanks. (though often just high and drunk)

 

Only the rectal ones...

 

Negative feedback loop prepping for a haymaker as Norwegian scientist detect rumbling pockets of methane accumulating under thawing permafrost. These methane explosions will turbocharge temp rise.

https://www.courthousenews.com/scientists-raise-alarm-over-methane-gas-escaping-arctic-permafrost/
Beneath the frigid terrain of Svalbard, Norway, vast stores of methane gas are migrating below the archipelago’s thawing permafrost.
The discovery, published in Frontiers in Earth Science on Tuesday, is prompting Arctic geologists to warn that any substantial gas escape could trigger a feedback loop perpetuating climate change.
“Methane is a potent greenhouse gas,” said the study’s lead author Thomas Birchall in a statement. “At present the leakage from below permafrost is very low, but factors such as glacial retreat and permafrost thawing may ‘lift the lid’ on this in the future.”

 

You mean positive feedback loop.

 

So the earth has never had a hotter day? Never ever?

 

It was as cold this morning as I can remember in a long time.

 

With increased temperatures comes increased variations. (hint: Mathematically, increased mean increases standard deviation)

 

I think the Earth will be colder this year. We’re off to a good start.

 

that is not true.

Let E(x) = 100

Now, let y = x + 100, so E(y) = 200

this transformation results in Var(x) = Var(y) & the mean has doubled

 

True, if you consider Global Warming simply as translational, which I assumed it is not. And also true that I did not specify.

 

FYI, here is a paper on seasonal changes (just one paper, but I don't have time to scour the internet):

https://www.epa.gov/system/files/do...te_change_and_seasonality_v12_release_508.pdf

The only way for no change in temp variations is to assume Global warming is linear, and bias only change only at that (i.e., additive only, not multiplicative). I am no Global warming scientist, but it is a reasonable assumption that the effects are non-linear. My guess in very non-linear.

 

San Diego flooded from an atmospheric river

 

I took me a while to figure out was I was looking at.

 

“On record”

 

The Earth is actually super warm right now. 2024 will top 2023 if the El Niño keeps up.

2023 Was the Hottest Year Ever and 2024 May Be Even Worse

It is cold in Florida, unfortunately for me, but those people down under have been taking a brutal beating the last few days.

Australia’s all-time heat record in jeopardy as temperatures soar - The Weather Network