Joe Manchin Says He Won’t Run for Reelection in Blow to Democrats Joe ManchinPhotographer: Kevin Die

He was going to lose badly anyways, that's why he's dipping out. Good riddance!

 

Long expected on Dem side. Senate map is very hard next cycle on Dems.

 

Rather just have a Republican than a Democrat who holds negotiations hostage. He and Sinema made a career of it, and I’m sure they enjoyed the unnatural importance it gave them.

 

It's OK, Dems will flip the House.

 

From my perspective as a moderate and being concerned about fiscal issues, I thought he was generally a positive moderating force against excesses. Sinema, OTOH, doesn’t really have any rhyme or reason why she does things and rebels mainly for politics and show.

 

No one is surprised

 

Because every state gets two Senators regardless of size, political scientists estimate that there is a natural 5-6% gerrymander in favor of Republicans. IOW, if the electorate was evenly divided, Rs would have 55-56 Senators. That is what makes it difficult for Dems. Right now they have 6-7 Senators more than they would if things were truly even. That's truly impressive but very hard to hold

 

Senate is obviously very critical in terms of court appointments. Though he cited the process in his vote against confirming Barrett, Manchin typically voted to confirm for either side from what I recall. Will have to see if his successor is different in that regard.

 

Disagree for one reason. With Mitch McConnell back as the Senate Majority Leader it will become much for difficult to confirm Biden's judicial nominees and G-d forbid if Trump is elected every one of his Federalist Society selected nominees will sail through the Senate as they did during his last term. With Mitch as the majority leader Ketanji Brown Jackson could be Joe Biden's one and only confirmed Supreme Court justice even if he should have the opportunity to nominate candidates for other Supreme Court vacancies resulting from the death or retirement of any of the current sitting justices.

 

I'd rather have Manchin. But he wasn't going to win. So it's better they shift resources to trying to hold on to Ohio and Montana.

 

Boebert replaced with a Dem.
Santos replaced with a Dem.

Dems pick up 10-13 seats here:

 

It’s called being a Maverick, and I thought y’all were supposed to like that kind of senator.

I am shocked! Shocked I tell you! to learn that Democrats only like senators who inexplicably decide to vote the other direction and blow up something that was supposed to be worked out when it is Republican senators doing so lol

 

I don't disagree regarding the House. There's a very good chance that the Democrats will regain their majority especially considering that every Republican who represents a district won by Biden voted to elect MAGA Mike as the Speaker of the House. While positive I just don't think it's enough to offset the damage that Mitch McConnell would do if he becomes the Senate Majority Leader again especially with respect to the confirmation of judicial nominees keeping in mind that Mitch is almost personally responsible for the overturning of Roe v. Wade and at the Federal District Court level the confirmation of clowns like Matthew Kacsmaryk and Aileen Cannon. Assuming he's reelected Joe Biden may not have the opportunity for the confirmation of a Supreme Court nominee even if a vacancy should develop for the next two years and possibly his entire second term if the Republicans regain a majority in the Senate, a distinct possibility especially considering that Manchin will almost certainly be replaced by a Republican.

 

Then why did you diasagree with my post?

 

The disagree is that “it’s okay” to lose the senate I assume.

 

That makes sense, thanks.

 

Be careful what you wish for. McConnell’s fingerprints are all over this. Trump win and GOP only needs to net one senate seat to have the majority (assuming Jim Justice wins .. which is a given). Seeing that the Democrats have more seats up in 2024 than GOP, it’s hard to envision the Dems hanging on to the Senate. So as it stands today, we’re projecting a supermajority in 2025. A lot could change between now and then, but it is what it is.

 

I wasn't in disagreement with your prediction that the Democrats would regain the House but rather the implication that regaining the House would offset the likely loss of the Senate considering the power that Mitch McConnell would have over the confirmation of Biden's judicial appointments if the Democrats did lose the Senate.