Joe’s economy still healthy: GDP expands +2.9%

His post had to be a joke. I found it to be funny.

 

It seems like I have to explain this to people every time there is a recession. The job losses occur last, (hopefully) not long before the recovery starts. Industrial activity (chemical sales, for example) and consumer spending drop off first, especially large purchases of cars and homes. I can tell you that chemical sales are definitely down the last few months, by as much as 20-30% of typical sales (or 40% less than peak sales). And home sales are also down, as is home construction. People are still buying smaller things, but are doing so by racking up massive credit card debt. The credit card debt in the U.S. is currently at its all-time high. That means when the layoffs finally do come, it's going to hurt a lot more for those with credit card debt. Inflation will just make all of this that much worse.

The economy is not doing fine right now.

 

Got to disagree with you, @chemgator. You can see the peak, then decline, in jobs starts several months before the recession in every case. That's why job decline is considered a leading indicator. And jobs don't usually bounce back until the end of the recession ... again, you can see in almost case, the largest job losses coincides with the end of the recession in most cases. You can see it very clearly in 1970, 1975, 1980, 1991, 2002, and 2008, with the others being not far off. It looks like job market capitulation marks the end of the recession.

 

POLL: Highest Number of Americans In Four Decades Say They’re Financially Worse Off Under Biden’s Presidency

So you spew all these facts and yet over 40% of American s are worse off than they were under the last administration.

I’ll sit back and listen and read all your supporting docs now.

 

Is today the day we pretend that an opinion poll is as factual as economic data? SMH

 

If I keep pissing on the seat, why does my wife keep yelling at me?

If I’m starving all the time, why do I keep eating?

if I keep running from the cops why do they keep chasing me?

If I like to masterbate why am I always looking at porn?

 

This is why:



Now compare it to the economic trend lines, where nothing much changed. While there is a small partisan effect on Democrats (what should have been small increases if it matched the economic numbers), there is a massive partisan effect on Republicans. This likely has to do with the differences in media consumed in terms of quality of reporting. CNN will spend quite a bit of time talking about inflation during Biden's time in office whereas Fox will avoid negative metrics when a Republican is in office and invent them when a Democrat is.

 

Yeah - as soon as I saw 40% I assumed that would fall right down party lines.

 

Nice job.

 

Just for context Trump lost about 20 million jobs due to Covid shutdowns.

There was no way around that.


Likewise much of the gains under Biden were due to reopening.

But you know that. To suggest something else is dishonest at face value and what you would call out immediately.

 

If I recall correctly Trump had reached record low UE as well(before Covid). He also didn’t have Trillions of stimulus (Federal and State) to juice the economy….

 

And yet, Trump still somehow leads him in polling. I don’t think that’s as much an endorsement of Trump, but more an indictment of Biden. Even a lot of GOP people I know have soured on Trump. So much baggage, yet he still leads. What do you think is going to happen if this recession most economists are predicting hits?

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/general-election-trump-vs-biden-7383.html