Iran Threatens the U.S. with "Consequences" for Israel Support

I will just say the way I see it at a very high level of generality. I know other informed posters feel differently, and we have exchanged our views before. Trying not to go there again.

US v. Iran. Iran views itself as the Shia protector against Israel and the Gulf states (I know the Palestinians are not Shia - just among the oppressed from their view). It's main conflict with the US is the US backing the version of the region where those states dominate. Plus the significant regional US military presence, which, by the way, we have been trying to reduce for years, unsuccessfully. Iran could, but has not, attacked civilian targets in western nations, with very limited exceptions.

In terms of the last 3 administrations, I very much supported the JCPOA, and think it was unwise to withdraw. Whatever one thinks of that, the US unilateral withdrawal from the commitments it had made, including promised economic benefits to Iran, made it hard for those in Iran to justify any form of working with the US.

They have largely been deterred from direct military attacks against the US, because they never get the better of it in actual armed conflict. When the latest Administration came in, they tried to entice Iran back into some new form of JCPOA. No success, though we offered enough.

Iran has had a lot of setbacks of late, which has angered the hardliners. The attack from ISIS, the conflict with Pakistan (cooled down), the inability to deter what is happening in Gaza, which is seen as their regional role by much of the regional populace, if not the regional leaders.

They have consistently attacked US bases through proxies, but in ways calculated more to display proof of concept rather than kill, which they could, but know that would not turn out well for them There are foolish statements being made that they never attacked US interests after the assassination of Solemani because they were intimidated, forgetting that they struck back immediately (from Iran, not through proxies). They did so in a manner calculated to kill many, and caused many injuries. So that's a stupid point.

The reason they have been attacking of late through proxies is Gaza, not the change in Administrations. And we have always hit back harder, killing many IRGC and other proxies. I haven't kept count as the reporting is unreliable but it is certainly in 3 figures.

They are not attacking because they don't fear retaliation, but because they want a wider regional war as a result of retaliation, or at least some of them do. Not saying they want straight out war with the US - that is foolish. But they are trying to discredit the US from its regional role by making the US seen only as an Israeli ally, attacking Muslims.

We have been trying to avoid that, for solid reasons. It would hurt Ukraine efforts (already has), harm the world economy far more, and generally get in the way of all our foreign policy goals. It would also strain resources to deter an attempted invasion or more likely blockade of Taiwan.

But we have to respond and will. And Iran will suffer far worse, although it is doubtful they will be deterred (hope so). Many contingencies already drawn up. Tanker aircraft getting to the region, etc.

But the challenge is to try to limit the downsides that harm the US that they are trying to trigger through US retaliation.

 

Reads like they knew to time it up with a returning drone to avoid defenses...blind luck to hit housing or was building painted somehow or much more advanced guidance on the drone?

Iran denies involvement in drone strike that killed three US troops
A defence official said the drone came in "very low and very slow" at the same time that a US drone was returning to the base from a mission.

As a result, the auto-response features of the air defence system were turned off so as not to shoot down the US drone, the official said, which meant there was little to no warning for troops at the base.
......
US officials said at least 34 military personnel were being evaluated for possible traumatic brain injury, and that some of the injured soldiers were medically evacuated from the base for further treatment.
They also said the drone struck living quarters at the base, which, if confirmed, could explain the high number of casualties.

 

Has the origin, ie launch point, been determined or is that even possible? Could this be a third party agitator trying to incite?

 

Saw that. Reminded me of this from history.

Kermit Tyler’s experiences as a fighter pilot in World War II were similar to many other fighter pilots who served in the Pacific theater, with one notable exception—on the morning of December 7, 1941 he was the officer in charge of the air information center at Fort Shafter on O’ahu who mistook the radar image of an incoming wave of Japanese attack aircraft for a flight of B-17 bombers he expected from the US mainland. Tyler’s response to the radar operator who reported the contact that morning to “don’t worry about it” would be grounds for countless historians, military professionals, armchair generals, and conspiracy theorists over the past eight decades to critique and criticize his actions that day and to argue over whether he could’ve prevented the significant loss of life sustained in the attack or even stopped the attack on Pearl Harbor itself.

Kermit Tyler: A Call That Would Live in Infamy | The National WWII Museum | New Orleans

 

Endorsed …

 

Once again Iran is denying involvement. Only question from where are the Shiite militias sources the drones or in the case of other attacks rockets used in the attacks. Given that the obvious answer is from Iran and if that the case any Iranian denial of involvement is pure b*ll sh*t.

 

I know that type of news always has be tough on you, exponentially more when you know the people. RIP to those who lost their lives and prayers for complete recoveries to those injured with heartfelt thanks to all who serve.

 

So perfect

 

RIP. Hoping the number will not grow but it likely will

 

seems like a target rich environment

if Iran wants to claim ignorance, I am going to claim ignorance after someone places explosive charges on your radar ships guiding houthi missiles and create new fishing reefs. I am going to repeatedly send small reminders into all the listed facilities below to remind them that a warhead could be coming in at any point do it might not be wise to reoccupy those facilities you temporarily abandoned.

How the US could hit back against Iran (msn.com)

There are a number of other prominent IRGC sites in Syria, including: a command and control centre called the “glasshouse” at Damascus airport; the Imam Ali air base near the Iraq border, a major drone facility at the Dimas air base near the Lebanon border; and an elite special forces training camp at Mayadin in eastern Syria.

“Bear in mind that as standard practice, Iran will already have evacuated personnel from key sites and senior operatives will have gone to ground,” Mr Lister said. Nevertheless, the US would still be sending a major message of deterrence.
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If Iran’s arms-length involvement is taken as adequate justification for direct military action, the US could choose to pursue Iranian naval assets. Tehran says it has deployed four naval squadrons to “international waters” since their Houthi allies started attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea. The US navy is also operating in the region.

An official told Bloomberg that the US was considering covert action that would see it attack Iran without claiming credit for the operation. It is thought that this course of action would send a clear message to Tehran while minimising the risk of escalation and not derailing fragile talks with Hamas and Israel about a new ceasefire. The clandestine operation could also be combined with the targeting of senior Iranian officials and military officers.

 

Decent piece. Tyler Rogoway also had some thoughts, including a ship to sink

 

Your posts are approaching Dugger's nonsense level. Congrats. That is a very hard level to achieve.

 

Are okee and I going to be summoned to an Anti-American Activities Committee ? And if you’re there, will you be the guy with the American flag lapel pin sitting in the front row ?

 

My nominee for second craziest human being on the planet ? The craziest also resides in South Carolina …

 

The correct move is to squeeze Iran financially, which is what President Trump was able to do quite effectively. Like the border, like everything else, why in the living *u** did Biden think it was a good idea to ease sanctions on Iran? His foreign policy is worse than his immigration policy and that is a pretty high bar to clear. Biden is about to get Jimmy Cartered.

 

that is the ship sending targeting data to the houthis. it needs to develop a severe leak

 

My thoughts exactly

 

Lindsey Graham has been calling for the bombing of Iran since the reign of Xerxes I …

https://www.theamericanconservative.com/the-historical-amnesia-of-bombing-iran/

 

Here is where it looks like things are. Iran and the US have signaled that US strikes against Iranian Proxies that do not hit Iranian territory will not lead to a larger war. Don't know what that means about an Iranian flagged ship or whether Ketaib Hezbollah (the particular proxy that launched the drone), is now scattered. But either way, Iran has essentially "given them up" like they did Hamas.

Also unclear if our strikes will actually deter (not sure they will).