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Inflation is Transitory! Inflation is Transitory! Inflation is Transitory!

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by ETGator1, Jun 21, 2024.

  1. gatorpa

    gatorpa GC Hall of Fame

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    I guess e-verify isn’t so great huh..
     
  2. gatorpa

    gatorpa GC Hall of Fame

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    When you say asset prices do you mean real estate or stocks?

    Lower rates likely would cause stocks to rise for many reasons.

    As far as housing prices it’s a coin flip.
     
  3. ETGator1

    ETGator1 GC Hall of Fame

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    Found the answer to Bowman's comment in a Breitbart article on the speech, increased immigration = increased demand on shelter = increased inflation:

    Breitbart Business Digest: Fed's Bowman Sees No Cuts This Year, Warns of Possible Rate Hike

    Immigration driving inflation higher, especially shelter inflation.

    “There is a risk that increased immigration and continued labor market tightness could lead to persistently high core services inflation. Given the current low inventory of affordable housing, the inflow of new immigrants to some geographic areas could result in upward pressure on rents, as additional housing supply may take time to materialize,” Bowman said.

    AzCat, citygator, and you have all stated that deportations are inflationary. That may be true at lower and sustainable levels of immigration. What we have been experiencing under Biden is not sustainable.

    The case has also been made that housing is the largest part of remaining inflation. That can be seen clear enough in the CPI.

    In Bowman's comment we have the acknowledgement of both, too high immigration and too high housing inflation.

    At the current excessive levels of immigration, Trump can deport millions of illegal aliens and it would lead to lower inflation, not higher inflation as has been floated by democrat pundits and folks here. It's also why Trump was able to deport millions, almost finish building a border wall, and establish Remain in Mexico without inflationary pressure, see posts 79 & 85.

    Further confirmation:

    Fed’s Bowman says rate cut is not appropriate yet given inflation risks (msn.com)

    Upward inflation risks stem, in part, from the inflow of new migrants to some regions that could result in upward pressure on rents, Bowman said.
     
    Last edited: Jun 26, 2024 at 8:58 AM
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  4. gaterzfan

    gaterzfan GC Hall of Fame

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    I was thinking rates staying where they are would allow most asset values to soften, decline. They’ve floated to relatively inflated values partly because money was cheap over much of the last decade. What I consider more normal interest rates will take some air out of these values.

    Just in out neighborhood, we’re seeing home prices drop. I’m shopping for a new (to me) motorcycle - available inventory is up and prices are dropping.

     
    Last edited: Jun 26, 2024 at 5:48 AM
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  5. gatorchamps960608

    gatorchamps960608 GC Hall of Fame

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    It would cause complete havoc to this country to deport the working illegal immigrants here.

    But at least all those suburban citizen kids could have a chance at their dream of working on a roof in 102 degree summer heat for low wages.
     
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  6. ETGator1

    ETGator1 GC Hall of Fame

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    Well okay then, deport all of those not working who are living in government provided shelter, are receiving free health care benefits, and any state or federal money which enables them to stay in the US.

    This deserves its own comment. Deport all illegal aliens who are gang members, potential terrorists, and all with criminal records. These are the people Homeland Security and the DOJ/FBI should be on alert for and watching, not Trump supporters, Christians, and concerned parents fighting to maintain control of their children from states and the federal government.
     
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  7. AzCatFan

    AzCatFan GC Hall of Fame

    Apr 9, 2007
    The demand for more housing for immigrants is offset by the supply of labor they supply. Including in the construction business, where it's estimated 23% of workers are undocumented immigrants. What would happen to supply of new housing if all new housing projects lost about 1 in 4 of their workers?

    Maybe we see a change in housing prices? Maybe not. There were 1.4 million new homes built in the US last year. Reduce labor by 23% and that's about 320,000 less homes finished. And this number doesn't include apartments, only houses.

    But we would definitely see a change in other prices. Like food. In agriculture, 41% of the work force is undocumented. And we all need to eat.
     
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  8. philnotfil

    philnotfil GC Hall of Fame

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    The demand for housing is much less than their numbers would suggest. I have an extended family member who is a slumlord in norther Virginia. He specializes in housing for people who can't complain about their living conditions, 4 or 5 families in a single house. The demand for housing for immigrants is more than offset by the supply of labor they supply.
     
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  9. ETGator1

    ETGator1 GC Hall of Fame

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    I suggest you write a letter to the dissenting Federal Reserve Governors.
     
  10. ETGator1

    ETGator1 GC Hall of Fame

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    Come now, you now know as I do that calling Trump future policies that are the same as past policies as inflationary is nothing more than a failed democratic party talking point. Trump 45 didn't have inflationary issues, and neither will Trump 47. Nice try, but no cigars.

    Just curious, what do you think the next bullshit democratic party talking point will be? I can do an advance review so I can shoot that down too.
     
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  11. AzCatFan

    AzCatFan GC Hall of Fame

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    Are economic conditions today the same as they were in 2017? No. Will the same policies from 2017 have the exact same effect today? No. Economics doesn't work that way.

    Your belief that Trump will magically take us back to 2017 conditions is a silly pipe dream. And ignores current economic realities.

    If you think I'm wrong, please explain how Trump's policies won't be inflationary. But remember, supply shortages almost always lead to higher prices.
     
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  12. AzCatFan

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    A negative or funny rating isn't an explanation on how Trump's policies won't be inflationary. I'm still waiting on how they won't be based on economic theory. Meanwhile, another expert explains how Trump's immigration policy would not only be inflationary, but trigger a recession as well, meaning stagflation.

    And Trump's first term policies did lead to inflation. Along with supply chain kinks, major labor shortages were an issue in 2022. And remember, Trump significantly cut legal immigration during his first term. And this lack of about 1 million persons wouldn't have alleviated the labor shortage. But it sure would've helped.
     
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  13. ETGator1

    ETGator1 GC Hall of Fame

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    We're back to blah, blah, blah again. You can't prove any of your statements any more than I can prove any of mine. I don't care about how many economists you put up as being able to predict the future, they can't.

    I also don't care if you somehow magically think the future is different from the past. That's your problem. Trump has a proven record for doing these things and they didn't prove to be inflationary, averaged 1.90% over 4 years.

    Guess what future boy, the American people know they were better off under Trump than Biden.

    I have one personal prediction for you. You won't like Trump having the success that Biden didn't have even when the country is better off for it. I'll go ahead and say it now, shame on you.

    I do have another prediction. Ly'n Biden, you're fired! November can't get here soon enough.
     
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  14. citygator

    citygator VIP Member

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    We have added 14M jobs since Trump destroyed the economy. We’ve added trillions in GDP and the stock market is record levels. We are so much better off than when Trump handed over the smoking embers of the dumpster fire he presided over. Low gas prices from a dying economy and a dying population isnt a recipe anyone wants except for idiots.
     
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  15. ETGator1

    ETGator1 GC Hall of Fame

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    What you meant to say was the 2020 economy was impacted by covid due to actions taken on a bipartisan basis by the federal government, executive and legislative, to protect the American people from the ravages of covid, death in too many cases.

    The Stock Market under Trump and under Biden. This DJI interactive graph makes it easy and simply for you:

    Dow Jones - 10 Year Daily Chart

    Trump:

    1/5/2017 DJI: 19,899.29
    12/28/2020 DJI: 30,403.97
    Percentage Growth: +52.79%

    Biden:

    1/4/2021 DJI: 30,223.89
    6/21/2024 DJI: 39,150.33
    Percentage Growth: +29.53%

    Percentage Difference Between Trump & Biden: Trump +23.26

    You're welcome, I gave you the 6/21 DJI close from the graph rather than the 6/27 slightly lower close.

    Those in the DJI did far better in percentage growth under Trump than Biden, not even close regardless of the DJI's current record high price levels.

    As you can easily see from the interactive graph, the DJI had fully recovered BEFORE the end of Trump's term.

    The ravages of inflation under Biden have practically destroyed the middle class, the highest inflation in over 40 years. If Biden inherited smoking embers, Trump when elected will inherit a roaring dumpster fire left by Biden.

    Low gas prices are a good thing so much so that Biden is working on reducing the strategic petroleum reserve this summer to try to lower gas prices in an attempt to buy votes in 2024 again like he did in the 2022 midterms. If you call reducing the SPR by 42% as he has done from what he inherited from Trump a good thing, I guess gas prices that are still much higher under Biden than Trump is a good thing. Who knew, Americans having to pay more for gas and having less money for themselves is a good thing.

    Other than what I've posted, everything you wrote above is 100% accurate. Not surprised that you have a hard time with the truth due to your Trump Derangement Syndrome.
     
    Last edited: Jun 27, 2024 at 10:49 AM
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  16. citygator

    citygator VIP Member

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    Ha. I wont read nonsense you post with cherry picked dates. Hilarious. If Trump wins and crashes the economy, again, you'll get your low prices and high unemployment.
     
  17. ETGator1

    ETGator1 GC Hall of Fame

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    LOL! Cherry picked dates? The DJI numbers are for Trump's 4 years and Biden's DJI numbers to date, approximately 3 1/2 years.

    You are the perfect example of a person with Trump Derangement Syndrome. You probably say to yourself every day "I don't want to know the truth because I hate Orange Man Bad/Mr. Mean Tweets. I'd rather stay ignorant of the facts so I can continue to spread untruths."
     
    Last edited: Jun 27, 2024 at 12:10 PM
  18. citygator

    citygator VIP Member

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    You might want to see the Wizard about a body part Mr. Scarecrow.

    Russian trolls wouldnt know US inauguration dates.

    upload_2024-6-27_11-5-59.png

    upload_2024-6-27_11-2-58.png

    Stock Market Performance by President | MacroTrends
     

    Attached Files:

  19. ETGator1

    ETGator1 GC Hall of Fame

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    EDIT: From graph you posted:

    Stock Market Performance by President
    This interactive chart shows the running percentage gain in the Dow Jones Industrial Average by Presidential term. Each series begins with the closing value of the month of inauguration and runs to the closing value of the last month of the term. The y-axis shows the total percentage increase or decrease in the DJIA and the x-axis shows the term length in months. Click any president name in the legend to add or remove graph lines. The current price of the Dow Jones Industrial Average as of June 2024 is 39,127.80.

    Using the numbers on this graph, Trump comes out with a slightly higher percentage growth difference:

    Trump DJIA Percentage Growth: +54.10%
    Biden DJIA Percentage Growth: +30.50%
    Percentage Growth Difference: Trump +23.60% from +23.26% by me.

    You can always hope the DJIA explodes on the upside to give Biden a chance to catch up with Trump, but I doubt it is going to happen. Reduced interest rates that didn't and likely won't take place are already baked into the cake.

     
    Last edited: Jun 27, 2024 at 11:49 AM
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  20. AzCatFan

    AzCatFan GC Hall of Fame

    Apr 9, 2007
    We can't predict the future accurately. But experts can take a look at a plan and give you their best estimate of what they think will happen based on theory and past performances. And just about every expert out there thinks Trump's policies would be inflationary and cause a recession.

    You can be in denial of all these experts and claim Trump didn't cause inflation before, therefore, it won't happen again. But this ignores the fact that the economy today is different than it was in 2017. Experts understand this. Wishful thinkers and/or the ignorant do not.

    And thanks for the negative/funny ratings. Without a real explanation on how Trump's policies won't be inflationary, I know these ratings are the best you can do to respond.