IMPORTANT Hurricane Milton

The most recent satellite images show its path is flattening out heading east instead of sagging ESE. Could be a wobble, but with it getting more compact as it strengthens, the bulk of the core may stay off shore.

 

hopefully it continues east, which would have it interact with yucatan range weaking it some and maybe it coming ashore south of tampa, much less storm surge on left hand side

 

Good news and bad news. The "good" news is that the storm is now forecast to make landfall as a Cat 3. The bad news is that it's also forecast to expand considerably in size meaning more of the Gulf coast could be affected by storm surge and most of the peninsula will be affected by at least tropical storm force winds.

 

This is a fictional worst case scenario for Tampa

 

Wouldn't you know that high tide starts around 6pm Wed and runs through 12 am on Thur.

 

Earlier today I read only two other storms had increased more than 80 knots in 24 hours. Wilma was one.

 

The good thing is in the Atl storms can’t sustain that for super long.

 

400 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST...
...MILTON POSES AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO FLORIDA AND
RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ORDERS OF LOCAL OFFICIALS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 90.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 675 MI...1085 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...905 MB...26.73 INCHES

 

Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...10-15 ft
Tampa Bay...10-15 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...6-10 ft
Charlotte Harbor...6-10 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...4-7 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft
Sebastian Inlet, FL to Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL...2-4 ft
Altamaha Sound, GA to Edisto Beach, SC...2-4 ft
Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft
St. Johns River...2-4 ft

 

5 pm update has it at 180 now.

Should weaken about as it has some interaction with the Yuke.

As it gets closer the interaction with the frontal boundary will also cause it to drop in wind speed and pick up forward speed.

 

5 PM FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 21.8N 90.8W 155 KT 180 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 21.9N 89.4W 160 KT 185 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 22.7N 87.4W 150 KT 175 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 24.2N 85.6W 140 KT 160 MPH

48H 09/1800Z 26.1N 84.0W 125 KT 145 MPH (134 miles SW of St Pete)
60H 10/0600Z 27.9N 82.6W 110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND (Old Tampa Bay)

72H 10/1800Z 29.2N 79.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 11/1800Z 30.5N 71.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/1800Z 31.0N 65.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 

Path across the state?

 

Damn! Stay safe everyone!

 

Wonder how Tampa General would fare in a worst case scenario. Even with their flood wall this storm could possibly decimate its operational status. Hospitals hate to divert patients, much less evacuate them.