Hurricane a'comin (Ian)

DeSantis declares emergency in 24 counties

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/24/flo...ency-as-storm-is-expected-to-hit-florida.html

 

Game will go on as planned. got to make sure AR doesn’t lose his mojo

 

straight at St. George Island ...

 

Euro model still favoring a turn to the east.

 

Yep. Mike says too much weight to GFS, given this year’s record. Persuasive. We are almost done with shutters (thanks!). Going to get some bags shortly

 

Good luck. We’re Doing our plywood shutters today. No Bags though, as they seem pretty useless at our riverfront home.

 

Watching Mike right now and he is expecting the 11 am update to show a shift to the east

 

We are just off the river, but have a weephole or two and a door gasket to address

 

I just watched as well. I thought he made a pretty persuasive case

 

Key storm survival staples running out. From Alessi

 

Very slight.

 

I see that. It's strange because with the latest models I only see one that shows it making landfall that far north

 

Key language from NHC discussion





The latest fixes suggest Ian is beginning to make its turn around the western side of the subtropical ridge, and the initial motion is west-northwestward at 290/12 kt. A gradual turn to the northwest is expected later today as the cyclone passes well southwest of Jamaica, followed by a north-northwestward motion that brings the center of Ian west of the Cayman Islands on Monday and near or over western Cuba by early Tuesday. There is relatively high confidence in this portion of the track forecast. However, once the cyclone emerges over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, the spread in the track guidance increases at days 3-5. The HWRF and GFS still lie on the western side of the guidance envelope and show Ian moving over the central or western Florida panhandle, while the ECMWF and UKMET models show a track farther east into west-central Florida. Overall, the NHC track forecast remains near the center of the guidance envelope and still lies very near the TVCA multi-model consensus.
However, there is still significant uncertainty in the long-range track forecast of Ian, and future adjustments to this portion of the forecast will likely be required.

 

Maybe add some beef jerky and a bottle of Woodford.

 

very slightly further east again.

 

I'm there,looks ok for now

 

make sure our house doesn't wash or blow away, would you?

thanks