Hurricane a'comin (Ian)

Great. Well at least I paid the flood last week

 

The last few runs of the GFS seem to suggest weak steering currents on Thursday and Friday next week, with the storm slowing down in the GoM west of Tampa before eventually accelerating northward. Of course, it could be 100+ miles in any direction, but I hate the idea of a slow moving storm. Too early to make firm predictions, but I'll be watching closely to see if the model trend continues.

 

Mike says GFS been wrong all year. Has me concerned

 

Looks like I might get a direct hit. I’m in Redington shores at ground level. Storm surge may get me.

My wife and I own one vehicle. I’ll send her inland to my son’s house with our valuables. I’ll stay behind to manage best I can. My building is 9 stories and built to withstand a hurricane. The question is, are all the windows hurricane ready? If I get flooded out I have friends on the 4th floor. I’ll head up and stay with them.

 

We are in Riverside heights and have hotel reservations North and south. We'll make the final decision on Monday which one to go to. We're going to try to put up shutters today. Not looking forward to that. Haven't put them up in a few years and the body has aged. But at this point it seems highly likely that we will have tropical storm conditions at a minimum. Obviously it could be a lot worse, but almost any possible track will put us under tropical storm conditions for a bit.

Best of luck out there. I would try to talk you out of staying but obviously you can make your own decisions. But I hope you don't regret it

 

It's going to be a brutal recovery.

 

Homer, if you are ground level, then go rent a truck, load your irreplaceable belongings and go with your wife. Don't play around with storm surge. 4th floor might not even be high enough in a residential building. It would not have been in Mississippi for Katrina

 

Spend a few bucks and find some labor to help with them shutters. Money well spent. We have roll downs so it takes me about 10 minutes to do the house. Bought house with them, wouldn't have paid that much for them, but love them.. generator runs, will wait to fill gas cans

 

4th floor is about 42 feet plus above sea level. I can go up to the 9th if I need to. Throughout the 51 years this place has existed many owners have stayed here through the storms, as will happen with this one.

I’ll send my valuables inland with my wife. No issue there.

Appreciate your concern.

 

You do understand the higher up you go the higher the wind speeds are going to be? I was a building inspector after Hurricane Charley and I inspected a few multi story buildings that had no damage on the lower floors but windows blown out on the upper floors.

I remember one motel that lost all the windows on the 4th floor, very few windows on the 3rd and no windows on the 1st & 2nd floor. There was a bit of water damage on the lower floors but it appeared to be mostly leakage from above.

 

42 should be fine. We have a condo at New Smyrna on 4th floor and we are only 30 feet up. Good luck with this one.

 

We have fabric shutters that are supposed to be easy. Already spent about 45 minutes to install the first one because they don't stretch correctly. I called out the idiots from weather tight twice because I tried it when they gave them to us. They said it was just user error.

You're probably right. I'm not sure I can get anyone now.

 

track is shifting back north a bit

 

This track would be just about worst case scenario for us, living on low land on upper Tampa Bay, but whatever must come must come.

 

Post in facebook marketplace and you can usually find someone with references. Craigslist is another option to find skilled labor that prefers gig jobs

 

Thanks. I am sitting now taking a break. Going much slower than anticipated

 

Unless it stalls out, it should be long gone from Gainesville by Saturday. With the projected center being near Gainesville on Thursday A.M. Even Friday might be a nice clear day (as tends to happen after hurricanes move through, they suck the moisture up with them).

That being said. Travel may be an issue. Power outages may be an issue. First responders having other priorities might be an issue. If the storm were projected to be where it is projected now on Thursday, and was instead projected on Friday then the game would almost certainly be delayed (and possibly that decision would come sooner rather than later), but that extra day or 2 I think maybe gives them a buffer to get it in, depending on the exact path it takes of course.