Hurricane a'comin (Ian)

Yeah it’s weird. It’s like you and I were the only ones that boarded up. But everyone wanted to pack their homes to the ceiling with water.

 

Yeah, not sure about that. Even my sister said she was just certain that was going to turn. Can't explain how others reasoned but I know we were planning to get out of town

 

It's been expected to become a major hurricane and subsequently weaken before landfall. Keeping fingers crossed for everyone. Notably, it's been my understanding over the years that while the experts have gotten a lot better with tracks, they haven't gotten quite as good on predicting intensity. But here's that chart.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/09L_intensity_latest.png

 

So many instances of rapid unforecasted intensification in recent years, that I always assume an intense storm for planning purposes if it reaches the Gulf

 

Mike's 9:19 Daily Brew on Bluetooth in car. Good info in Mike inimitable style

 

Sheesh, Stay safe guys.

 

just got done helping the in laws. they are elderly and cant do much so we put up their storm shutters and cleared the yard of projectiles.
This is what they have for shutters. Pretty cool and easy up/down.
Hurricane Fabric - Hurricane Protection | Hurricane Storm Panels

 

Yeah, that's the best practice. We should all be prepared anyway in terms of having our supplies together for the season, though I will admit falling short on that for Sally. The trickier part IMO is the evacuation decision for people who live near water, have young kids or elderly relatives to worry about, etc. I've never evacuated for a storm, but I've also never lived on the water. I would not take any chances with that. You hide from the wind and run from the water. We had folks during Ivan trying to axe their way through their attics. That had to be terrifying, and it was all scary enough as it was.

 

We are close to the river on 2 sides (1 block) but high up such that we are in Evac Zone C. I have 5 mature oaks in my back yard and a large magnolia on the side yard. My neighbor says they lean during storms (he stays) to point of concern, but I am familiar with the studies. The lean is just like a well designed building. They actually mitigate the wind and protect. You get debris to clean up and one has some branches that can break but overall they protect

 

Please let us know how effective they were. We are thinking about getting something similar for our front windows. We have the regular steel shutters but our front windows are arched and have moulding that sticks out a bit. We thought that maybe these fabric ones would be a better option for those two windows.

 

These newer tracks are not looking promising for St John’s storm surge and a 5-4 tide

 

Yeah, some oaks are more hardy than others, but I can't remember about magnolias. Even if trees withstand the wind as a whole, though, like you say - there is still the potential for large limbs to come down. In a slow-moving storm, we also have to worry about the ground getting so saturated that large trees topple over because the ground gives way.

IMO, debris in the form of trees really is the main culprit in terms of wind damage. Most houses can take quite a bit of wind (at least up to a very extreme level). Look at some of the coastal towns of Louisiana that got hit over the last few years, and they did pretty well from the wind standpoint as far as I could tell. Many palm trees were even still standing. Compare that to hurricanes that hit in areas with tons of pine trees and water oaks (such as Ivan in Pensacola, which was "only" a Cat 3). It's just much different IMO in terms of the scope of property damage. This is one reason I never criticize folks who want to take down trees in their yard.

My grandfather always said that "things" can be replaced but people can't. If you have insurance in place, you will be okay. Just be very careful about anything you sign after the storm if you have damage. And if you get any water intrusion, try to address that immediately because mold remediation is much more problematic and expensive than replacing a roof.

 

Yep, especially if it buzzes across the state into the atlantic, then turns north.

 

Healthy Oaks and Magnolia will not fail under any water/wind combo that your house would withstand. And they do mitigate.
Edited to add: water oaks are problematic. I'm talking about Grand Live oaks

 

No doubt, just better safe than sorry and there is a difference between being on the beach and on an island as for storm surge. There are just a ton of older houses in St Pete/TB that I dont think would survive. I was in SFla for Andrew and saw a lot of older houses and stick apartments blown away. TB has a lot of those.

 

+ that on water oaks. Irma took out an old water oak at my house. Broke off at root ball. Luckily a live oak caught it before it squished my house. Side note, cranes are expensive

 

Yep, have some friends that moved to Ft Myers a few years back and are on the 20th floor of a condo. She is the condo president so probably not going anywhere. They watched the fringes of Michael from their balcony and think they were in a hurricane, but I keep telling them otherwise. Hope their luck holds.

I still recall all the Australian Pines on Sanibel getting leveled several years ago by Charley, a cat 4 as I recall. Of course there was Donna when I was a little tyke.

We are out of town, but my wife's sis and family bailed on St Pete to our place north of Tampa. Good luck to all.

 

This eastward and slight southern movement will help the tampa bay area. Fort Meyers will be the big loser if this movement stays.