Hurricane a'comin (Ian)

Both are quality places.

 

Already at my Son’s house in Fishhawk. Hopefully enough inland from the surge.

 

If that happens, that'll be a catastrophe. I remember places in the city flooding from normal storms.

 

Not sure that makes sense. Not everyone needs to head north. I've convinced my mom to drive from St Pete down to Fort Lauderdale tomorrow, since we're out of harm's way. We can't be the only ones...

 

Me neither. I figured we wouldn't get hit too hard here in Seminole County. That model isn't promising on that front.

 

No single model is inherently credible. That's why people more knowledgeable than us look at all of them together, and make educated guesses about what's most likely.

 

Yeap, all of South Tampa, downtown Tampa, downtown St Pete would be under water. There’s also a lot of historic neighborhoods with very old houses and power grids. I lived in Tampa for 20 years. Hyde Park, Seminole Heights, Westchase. Everyone there knows a direct hit by a big hurricane would be catastrophic. I hope and pray the area is spared again. It’s extremely vulnerable.

 

Late last night it started ticking North more, this is well before the forecast.
People on the east side of the state need to be ready for much higher winds etc.

The Euro has leaned this way for a long time,really looks like it may get its way.

watch today to see if the N trend continues or if this is just a wobble. Only good thing is may not have as much time over water.
Marco island to sanibel better be prepared for a land falling storm at this point.

 

On the weather channel, they kept saying Tampa Bay is the worst place in the country to have a big storm surge. Hadn’t heard that before

 

The latest models have it coming in south of Tampa, that would be much better for Tampa, not nearly as much storm surge, could even have the water in the bay pushing out.

Pressure in the storm coming off Cuba is lower than the models had, so the models they run this afternoon may tell a different story. If the storm is stronger than what they expected, it could run further north than the models predict. Just a few more miles north makes a big difference in what happens to Tampa.

 

Shape of the bay, it’s like a giant funnel.

 

I can see that now.

 

Keep an eye on the Euro, it’s wanted to turn this bastard right for a week.
With the earlier north turn it may get its way. Like I said up thread east coast needs to pay a closer watch here. Charley 2.0 but with a bigger an slower moving system.

 

This is where you feel guilty because you want it to hit someone else and not you

 

Oh yeah. Well known.

 

Yep, for Tampa's purposes, obviously not trying to seem insensitive to others, it's best that if it goes north of Tampa, it gets far North

 

On the road from Riverside Heights Tampa to a pet friendly hotel in South Florida out of the cone. Wife driving, heavily sedated older cat and dog in back.

As far as we could tell, there was panic but not a lot of other preparation. Didn't see one other house with shutters installed. Just a run on stuff at stores.

 

That last model has it as an “m” at landfall, first time I’ve seen that. They had expected it drop to a 1-2 before landfall.

 

In this scenario you hope for less populated areas. Limit the impact.